TMA&Cycles - page 10

 

Pa&pivots

mrtools:
Can't remember comparing the 2 but your right Simba, TMA for the most part better here TMA Bands (solid and white) and SSA Bands (dashed green and red) seems to be hugging the price and less overshoot,anyway this is adaptive TMA Bands, but using an older version of Mladen's TMA(can't figure out what to do with extra buffer on new version)Added his alerts also.

Tools,

Thanks for your comments and observations,as I said in a previous post,the only things that really matter for trading are having a probability mindset and focusing on Price Action and Action and reaction around Pivots with a focus on risk control(you can define Pivots in many ways,static and dynamic,pivot,trendlines,SR,Levels,200SMA...etc...All work with a positive edge)..BUT...I have found that the methods of JM Hurst and Brian Millard,properly applied,add better flavour to the recipe...From my point of view... which may be biased by my actual style of trading.

To say it clearly,I don`t focus (anymore ) on making 300%/500% a year(with 50% and 70% DD when things went bad),I focus on making 5% a month,compounded,with "low use of leverage"..ie:max 3:1 per position and max 10:1 per global sum of positions,and I use D1 ATR stops or H4 ATR stops,depending on my RR...So,I end up running 1.5% to 5% risks per position,and a max of 10% per global position.... the TMA centered Bands,help me in getting lower risk entries,and way better RR...That`s all.

Tools,we have discussed this several times in private...This business is based on having a 10 year horizon and the use of "compounding"...That is the profit magic of "stocks/futures/forex" timing...and the main focus of any trading system must be directed towards Price Action and SR...99% of "everything else" doesn`t work,and,for my personal trading style,Tma Centered Bands is one of the few things that I can safely include in the other 1% of techniques that work extraordinarily well to improve RR of PA and SR.

If I seem to disgress from the main point of the topic of this thread,it is because what I wrote here is extremely more important for your(all readers) trading success than any TMA Bands technique I may explain.....Which is also relevant,obviously ,but secondary to PA and SR trading with extraordinary risk control.

BTW...the EUR setup of a few posts ago never happened,So,no entry...NP,There will be more setups to trade.

Regards

S

 

I do understand the settings to start with but I don't understand the settings that needs to be change how often do i need to change the settings?

also can it be made adaptive ?

thanks

 

Adaptive

sillykiddo:
I do understand the settings to start with but I don't understand the settings that needs to be change how often do i need to change the settings?

also can it be made adaptive ?

thanks

Your First question:I already said so,but I will repeat,I change the h4 and d1 setting everyday,so,I modify them in the morning and I don`t touch them until the next day...h1 settings,I change every hour if there is a change in cycle length,below h1 I don`t trade.

Your second question:It is not for me to reply,I am not a programmer.As I already said,that will be wonderful....;)

Regards

S

 

M5

ValeoFX:
Simba very kindly assisted me in correctly calculating the TMA values for the M5 TF, warning me that it is not "recommended"

Nevertheless, I persevered and have been very successful IMHO in trading it with my usual indicators (which I am not attaching here).

Seeing that this method is still very much in its infancy, I was surprised at how the TMAs performed yesterday and this morning in particular. Having said that, I think it is pretty useful in lower TFs as I have seen them perform even on M1 with great aplomb.

Here is an example of this morning's behaviour and your comments (good or bad) will be greatly appreciated.

Notice the short entries at Points #A and #B, but it at #B that I found the behaviour fascinating to say the least. The price moved out of the TOP-Band and needed to come back into the "channel" so to speak. So all that was needed was to wait for the candles to turn RED before pulling the trigger.

What is even more fascinating to me, is the fact that the channel started to dip DOWN 30 minutes before the ensuing short.

Lastly, check where the price came to a halt: that Magenta TMA has a setting of 522/960/14 calculated by Simba and if you follow it, you will see how accurate it is.

And now for the "confession" - I have not changed the settings for more than a week on this chart and when compared to the one that I change every day, the difference to me at least, was not significant enough to warrant spending extra time changing it. I will however continue to monitor the situation.

Sincerely,

Thanks Valeo

You are an experienced trader and have your own method for M5,so,I could ,and did, assist you in creating a good template for TMA Bands M5.

1-Basically,what I did is putting in front of your eyes the H1 template on a m5 chart,so,you may think that you are trading on M5,but,really ,you are trading with information generated by the half cycle and volatility of the H1 tf....So,this can probably improve your already established m5 method....;)

2-I strongly suggest any "non expert" to avoid trading this method below H1,I strongly suggest that you use it on h4 , d1 or CRBs...People,are you here to trade or to make money?

3-The 522/960/14 "calculated by Simba" are nothing much different than having a 44,0,80,4 template on H1...Or a 11,0,20,2 template in H4,which,if I am not mistaken was the basis we used to translate timeframes,so,no magic here...as we already discussed several weeks ago,in private.

4-Yes you didn`t change the settings and they`(seem to) work forever...one day you are going to find 2 things...1-cycle length has decreased...2-Cycle amplitude has increased ...that day you will be very sorry you didn`t make the changes...see next point.

5-The method is not new at all,I have been using it with different tools years before being a member of this Forum(started by sma with halfcycle delay and projection to the Future by trendlines or linear regression...tried all those tools I mentioned in a previous post ,finishing with SSA Bands which mladen very kindly gave me a preview-around a year ago-November or December 2008 if I am not mistaken)..JM Hurst used a similar method since 1972,and Brian Millard used a very similar,practically the same method,since ,I don`t know,but I read his books like 6 years ago,so probably he has been using them for at least 10 years before his passing away, and Mr Lee of swingtradingmachine has been trading the concept,with success for a lot of time...

So,the only thing new here is mladen`s indicator,and a few "concepts by Simba"...This makes possible to transform a good method into something much much better...Again..one day you will find the cycle length decreasing and the cycle amplitude increasing,and this day you will remember these words....I have the scars to prove it ....That is why I insist in NOT USING Robust settings,much better to update them every day or every hour.

Just my opinion....Oh..and the "white channel" at your pic didn`t turn down before price,that is absolutely impossible,what happened was a strong redrawing(typical of m5) of the bands due to a sudden increase in directional volatility....If you don`t believe it,do a visual tester on it and you will realize what really happened.

S

 

Simba...

Hi Simba,

Thank you for your usual comprehensive reply which I really appreciate without making me feel an absolute idiot.

I have just witnessed what you have described here with this last short due to an announcement and I will certainly edit my posting higher up. Thank you for bringing this to my attention. All it needs is an extra 30m every day to recalculate the settings anyway, so I will do as instructed initially.

Just an observation and linked to a question........... the cycle length in the morning before London opens or shall I rather say at the end of the Asian session, is mostly very different by our midday (CET) and my question really is, should we not recalculate midday rather than 7h00 our time and again lunch time?

Thank you again for your unselfish support.

Best wishes.

 

Thanks

Hi

at first my thanks to all the big Brainers and Coders, especially to mladen, igorad, simba, mrtools and valeo for their great work.

Valeo

can you post your 5Min template and indi's please?

Thanks from a old man

ValeoFX:
Simba very kindly assisted me in correctly calculating the TMA values for the M5 TF, warning me that it is not "recommended"

Nevertheless, I persevered and have been very successful IMHO in trading it with my usual indicators (which I am not attaching here).

Seeing that this method is still very much in its infancy, I was surprised at how the TMAs performed yesterday and this morning in particular. Having said that, I think it is pretty useful in lower TFs as I have seen them perform even on M1 with great aplomb.

Here is an example of this morning's behaviour and your comments (good or bad) will be greatly appreciated.

Notice the short entries at Points #A and #B, but it at #B that I found the behaviour fascinating to say the least. The price moved out of the TOP-Band and needed to come back into the "channel" so to speak. So all that was needed was to wait for the candles to turn RED before pulling the trigger.

What is even more fascinating to me, is the fact that the channel started to dip DOWN 30 minutes before the ensuing short.

Lastly, check where the price came to a halt: that Magenta TMA has a setting of 522/960/14 calculated by Simba and if you follow it, you will see how accurate it is.

And now for the "confession" - I have not changed the settings for more than a week on this chart and when compared to the one that I change every day, the difference to me at least, was not significant enough to warrant spending extra time changing it. I will however continue to monitor the situation.

Sincerely,
 

TMAs on M5 (and even M1)...

Simba very kindly assisted me in correctly calculating the TMA values for the M5 TF, warning me that it is not "recommended"

Nevertheless, I persevered and have been very successful IMHO in trading it with my usual indicators (which I am not attaching here).

Seeing that this method is still very much in its infancy, I was surprised at how the TMAs performed yesterday and this morning in particular. Having said that, I think it is pretty useful in lower TFs as I have seen them perform even on M1 with great aplomb.

Here is an example of this morning's behaviour and your comments (good or bad) will be greatly appreciated.

Notice the short entries at Points #A and #B, but it at #B that I found the behaviour fascinating to say the least. The price moved out of the TOP-Band and needed to come back into the "channel" so to speak. So all that was needed was to wait for the candles to turn RED before pulling the trigger. At this point the Aqua_TMA took over and contained the price.

The "White Channel's" behaviour is adequately described by Simba below and I urge you to read it as I have just experienced it first hand with the announcement and ensuing spike (Wednesday BoE Inflation Report)

Lastly, check where the price came to a halt: that Magenta TMA has a setting of 522/960/14 calculated by Simba and if you follow it, you will see how accurate it is.

And now for the "confession" - I have not changed the settings for more than a week on this chart and when compared to the one that I change every day, the difference to me at least, was not significant enough to warrant spending extra time changing it. I will however continue to monitor the situation. (NOT RECOMMENDED AS PER SIMBA'S EXPLANATION BELOW!)

Sincerely,

Files:
 

recalculate

ValeoFX:
Hi Simba,

Thank you for your usual comprehensive reply which I really appreciate without making me feel an absolute idiot.

I have just witnessed what you have described here with this last short due to an announcement and I will certainly edit my posting higher up. Thank you for bringing this to my attention. All it needs is an extra 30m every day to recalculate the settings anyway, so I will do as instructed initially.

Just an observation and linked to a question........... the cycle length in the morning before London opens or shall I rather say at the end of the Asian session, is mostly very different by our midday (CET) and my question really is, should we not recalculate midday rather than 7h00 our time and again lunch time?

Thank you again for your unselfish support.

Best wishes.

Hi Valeo,

You are welcome,np.

H4/D1:I usually update the cycle halflength around the time of Frankfurt opening and leave it there for the whole trading day.

H1:I check it every hour and change accordingly if needed(I don`t change it if cycle changes from 20 to 21 periods,but if it changes from 34 to 20 ,or from 11 to 15 periods,I change it instantly).

BELOW H1:I don`t trade below H1

Additionally,since I trade several pairs I like to see similar cycle lengths between ,for example,GBPUSD and GBPJPY..GBPUSD and EURUSD...EURUSD and EURJPY..AUDUSD and AUDJPY..If they are very different,I tend to disbelief them..if they are similar I tend to believe the signals,for example,now in h1,I have GJ,AJ,AU at 11...EU and EJ at 13..and GU at 15,so any signal at the first 5 pairs I will tend to believe and trade,while for GU,if I get a signal, I will probably recheck with a harder template based on the 11 periods cycle,or I will just don`t take it.

Regards

S

 
Badguy:
Hi

at first my thanks to all the big Brainers and Coders, especially to mladen, igorad, simba, mrtools and valeo for their great work.

Valeo,

can you post your 5Min template and indi's please?

Thanks from a old man

===================================================

Old man? I guess it may be in order to say...."my foot"

Please contact me via PM here at TSD.

Attached the requested template, but please take notice of Simba's warning regarding lower TFs for this method.

Best wishes.

Files:
 

Bands?

Hi ValeoFX

thanks for template.

But I miss the channels and the magenta TMA.

Whitch versions of indi do you use?

ValeoFX:
===================================================

Old man? I guess it may be in order to say...."my foot"

Please contact me via PM here at TSD.

Attached the requested template, but please take notice of Simba's warning regarding lower TFs for this method.

Best wishes.