Intraday trading signal - page 13
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 14/01/2010 21:26 All times in GMT
Dollar falls versus yen after weak U.S. retail sales
The greenback dropped against the yen after the release of weaker-than-expected December U.S. retail sales and other data heightened market's expectation that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the foreseeable future. However, the U.S. currency held gains against euro after the European Central Bank kept its rate policy unchanged and President Trichet reiterated the importance of a strong dollar.
ECB left key benchmark rate unchanged as expected at its record low of 1%. Euro remained under pressure throughout European session as broad-based selling which started just before European opening from 1.4557 downwards had pushed price lower. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggested the bank's benchmark interest rate will be on hold for some time. He also stated that the economic outlook in the eurozone remains uncertain and recovery will likely be uneven. The single currency hit intra-day low of 1.4445 in NY mid-session but rebounded after release of the weaker-than-expected U.S. data. Euro ended the day down just 0.06%.
Japanese finance minister Kan said that exchange rates should be set by markets unless they move rapidly. The dollar rose against the yen on his comments and briefly climbed to 92.05 in European morning. However, the pair fell sharply after that and the fall picked up momentum after U.S. retails sales posted a drop in December. Core retail sales decreased by 0.2% in December (forecast was an increase of 0.3%) after an upwardly revised 1.9% in November. The dollar weaken to intra-day low of 90.84 in NY afternoon before stabilizing.
Despite falling to 1.6249 in European morning, cable rebounded strongly on active cross buying in sterling (eur/gbp tumbled from 0.8937 to 0.8867) after ECB kept its rate unchanged. The British pound later rose to 1.6347 in NY afternoon before trading sideways.
Data to be released to Friday include Swiss combined PPI, EU HICP final, trade balance, U.S. CPI, capacity utilisation, industrial production.
EUR/USD Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: +1.4430+
Last Update At 15 Jan 2010 03:07 GMT
As intra-day decline has accelerated after early
breach of y'day's 1.4445 low, suggesting recent
upmove has made a top earlier at 1.4580 (Wed) n a
firm break of 1.4405 wud add credence to this view,
yield further weakness to 1.4375, 1.4351/56.
Turn short on recovery due to o/sold condition
n only abv 1.4492 wud abort bearishness.
Range Forecast
1.4405 / 1.4445
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4445/1.4492/1.4520
S: 1.4405/1.4356/1.4301
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: +1.4430+
Last Update At 15 Jan 2010 03:07 GMT
As intra-day decline has accelerated after early
breach of y'day's 1.4445 low, suggesting recent
upmove has made a top earlier at 1.4580 (Wed) n a
firm break of 1.4405 wud add credence to this view,
yield further weakness to 1.4375, 1.4351/56.
Turn short on recovery due to o/sold condition
n only abv 1.4492 wud abort bearishness.
Range Forecast
1.4405 / 1.4445
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4445/1.4492/1.4520
S: 1.4405/1.4356/1.4301Morning Ace, thanks for the outlook I'll follow your thread closely
USD/JPY Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY
USD/JPY : 91.12
Last Update At 15 Jan 2010 04:37 GMT
Although dlr has edged higher after initial weak
ness fm 91.33 to 90.92, suggesting further 'choppy'
trading abv y'day's 90.84 low (NY) wud continue, as
y'day's selloff fm 92.05 signals recent decline has
possibly resumed, re-test of 90.73 is seen later.
Sell on recovery for 90.85, stop as indicated,
abv may risk stronger retrace. to 91.56/59
Range Forecast
90.95 / 91.25
Resistance/Support
R: 91.33/91.56/91.80
S: 90.84/90.73/90.57
Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 15/01/2010 21:50 All times in GMT
Dollar and yen gain on risk aversion
The greenback and the Japanese yen rose against most major currencies on Friday as broad-based fall in European and U.S. stocks due to concern on the strength of global economic recovery and continued uncertainty in the euro zone over Greece's ballooning budget deficit together with rumour on German chancellor Merkel may resign pressured the single currency, causing investors to move out of risky assets into U.S. dollar and the yen.
At Asian opening, euro nose-dived on rumour that Germany's chancellor Merkel may resign as the latest German opinion poll showed her popularity has fallen to a 3-year low. The rumor was later denied by German officials. Euro has remained under pressure throughout the day and price hit intra-day low of 1.4336 in NY afternoon before stabilizing. In other news, Eurozone inflation rose by 0.3% m/m n 0.9% y/y, in line with market expectation.
Despite rising briefly to an intra-day high of 1.6357 in Asia, cable retreated sharply from there. Cable's fall picked up more momentum after the release of better-than-expected U.S. Empire state data in January which rose to 15.92 (economists' forecast was 11.28) from previous month's upwardly revised reading of 4.50 and price reached an intra-day low of 1.6211 in NY afternoon before rebound. In other news, U.S. industrial production in December rose by 0.6% as expected with downwardly revised 0.6% increase in November.
Dollar yen traded narrowly in Asia but later ratcheted lower on renewed cross buying in yen, price later fell to 90.60 in Europe and then rebounded to 91.19 on short-covering in NY morning, the greenback retreated against the yen on renewed risk aversions as U.S. stocks tumbled (Dow Jones index over 100 points) after the release of weaker-than-expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment which came in at 72.8 (well below consensus forecast of 73.9). The pair ended the day down over 0.40%.
Data to be released next week include: U.K. Rightmove house price, Japan industrial production on Monday, Japan consumer confidence, U.K. CPI, Germany ZEW index, EU ZEW survey, Canada BOC rate decision on Tuesday, New Zealand CPI, Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan tertiary industry index, machine tools orders, Germany PPI, U.K. ILO unemployment rate, BOE meeting minutes, Canada CPI, U.S. building permits, housing starts, PPI on Wednesday, New Zealand retail sales, Australia Westpac leading economic index, Swiss ZEW index, U.K. CBI industrial trend, U.S. jobless claims, leading indicators on Thursday, Germany PMI manufacturing, PMI service, EU PMI manufacturing, PMI service, U.K. retail sales, EU industrial orders, Canada retail sales on Friday. Monday is a market holiday in U.S.
AUD/USD Market Outlook by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM :
AUD/USD: +0.9239+
Last Update At 18 Jan 2010 07:14 GMT
As A$ has rebounded after meeting renewed buying
at 0.9205, suggesting further choppy trading abv
intra-day 0.9174 low wud continue, since this move
indicates early decline fm 0.9331 has made a temp.
low, consolidation with upside bias remains.
Buy again on dips for 0.9250 n take profit on
such move, then turn short for day trade.
Range Forecast
+0.9225 / 0.9250+
Resistance/Support
R: 0.9272/0.9290/0.9331
S: 0.9205/0.9199/0.9170
AUD/USD Market Outlook by AceTrader
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM :
AUD/USD: 0.9260
Last Update At 19 Jan 2010 07:24 GMT
Aud's present rebound after early selloff to
0.9225 in Asia caused by cross selling of aud sug-
gests the pullback fm y'day's high at 0.9279 has
ended n conoslidation with upside bias is seen but
break needed to extend rise fm 0.9174 twd 0.9290.
Turn cautious buyer on dips n only below 0.9225
signals correction fm 0.0174 over, 0.9200/05.
Range Forecast
0.9245 / 0.9275
Resistance/Support
R: 0.9279/0.9290/0.9331
S: 0.9225/0.9205/0.9199
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 19/01/2010 21:29 All times in GMT
Dollar gains broadly after weak German investor sentiment
Despite a brief bounce to 1.4415 at Tokyo opening, the single currency tumbled after release of German & euro zone ZEW index, a gauge to show investor sentiment. German ZEW index came in much weaker than expected at 47.2 in January versus the expectation of 49.5 and well below previous reading of 50.4. The eurozone ZEW economic sentiment in January also dropped to 46.4 versus the consensus forecast of 48.0. Euro nose-dived immediately after the data and later weakened to 1.4252 in NY mid-session (its lowest level against the greenback this year) as the weak ZEW index added to woes inflicted by flagging market confidence in Greek public finances.
Although cable has rallied to 1.6459 in European morning after the release of higher-than-expected U.K. CPI which rose by 0.6% m/m and 2.9% y/y, price later tumbled to 1.6312 in European mid-session in tandem with euro on dollar's broad-based strength.
Chinese move to tighten monetary liquidity by lifting auction yields on one-year bills hurt investor risk appetite, boosting the U.S. dollar against both the yen and higher-yield commodity currencies.
Net overall capital inflows into the U.S. rebounded to $26.6 billion in November from a revised outflow of $25.4 billion in October.
Despite early marginal weakness to 90.31 versus the yen, the greenback rebounded on short-covering after Japan Airlines JAL filed for bankruptcy as expected. The pair reached intra-day high of 91.27 in NY mid-session before stabilizing.
The greenback also rose against Canadian dollar to as high as 1.0350 after the Bank of Canada held rates steady and slightly lowered its growth outlook, saying a strong currency remains a risk to recovery.
Data to be released on Wednesday include New Zealand CPI, Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan tertiary industry index, machine tools orders, Germany PPI, U.K. ILO unemployment rate, BOE meeting minutes, Canada CPI, U.S. building permits, housing starts, PPI.
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 20/01/2010 21:15 All times in GMT
Dollar and yen continue to gain on broad-based risk aversion
The single currency continued its recent descent and tumbled again yesterday in early Asian trading, despite initial sideways move at Tokyo opening after Tuesday's selloff to 1.4252, some big players managed sold euro aggressively in order to trigger stops below said low and more stops below recent major sup at 1.4218. After falling briefly to a five-month low of 1.4080 in NY afternoon, euro remained under pressure for the rest of the day amid worries about Greece ability to finance its deficit.
Commodity currencies fell broadly on Wednesday after Chinese media said banks were being told to curb lending. Australian dollar fell over 1.8%, New Zealand dollar shed 2.8% and weaker-than-forecast Canadian inflation data knocked the Canadian dollar over 1.5% down against the greenback to a two-week low of 1.0490. Spot gold also tumbled by over $30 an ounce, price hit an intra-day low of $ 1107.00 before staging a recovery.
The U.S. dollar rose broadly on increased risk aversion due to selloff in global stock markets and hopes that the Republican upset victory for the vacant U.S. Senate seat from Massachusetts will force Congress to rein in the fiscal deficit, the DJI closed down by 122 points. In other news, U.S. housing starts dropped by 4.0% to 0.557 million units whilst building permits rose by 10.9% to 0.653 million units. U.S. PPI came in at 0.2% m/m n 4.4% in December.
Data to be released on Thursday include New Zealand retail sales, Australia Westpac leading economic index, Swiss ZEW index, U.K. CBI industrial trend, U.S. jobless claims, leading indicators.