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AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 23 Mar 2016 09:08 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.57
Despite the greenback's selloff to as low as 110.67 last Thursday, subsequent strong rebound suggests MT decline has possibly made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 112.96, then 113.46/50.
However, near term loss of momentum would prevent strong move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed retreat later.
On the downside, only below 111.38 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 111.22, then 110.99.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
USD dipped low after releasing BoJ minutes before staging a strong rebound
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
24 Mar 2016 01:14GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr briefly dipped to intra-day low of 112.29/30 after the release of BoJ minutes before staging a strong rebound. Bank of Japan policymakers engaged in heated debate on the pros and cons of their decision in January to adopt negative interest rates, with one even saying it was preferable to roll it back, a summary of their opinions at the March 14-15 rate review showed today.
Quote: "It's preferable to roll back the negative rate policy. But abandoning it immediately after introducing it would cause market confusion and risk eroding trust in the BOJ. With the effects (of the policy) still not clear, we should maintain the policy".
Just published summary of BoJ meeting on March 14-15:
The balance risks to Japan, and the overseas economies remain tilted to downside and while markets remain unstable at the start of year that has no disruption in Japan's economy.
Their exports, production are weak so this may affect capex, together with weak wage growth, data on inflation expectations also falling; chances of consumer inflation excluding volatile food, energy remaining above 1 pct has diminished.
Negative rate policy is exerting intended effects and that is preferable than to abandon it, but rolling it back now would erode confidence in BoJ policy so should maintain it for time being. But the Negative rate policy has not spurred portfolio rebalancing effect as much as expected, and with all the drawbacks of negative rates, such as giving market the impression that BoJ is reaching limits to Japanese Government Bond buying, are materialising.
Again, negative rate policy has strengthened deflationary mindset by causing public anxiety on outlook, now offering exemptions to negative rate policy could heighten market volatility.
Communication with markets has become very difficult as markets beginning to price in further BoJ action and they are aiming for 'surprise' effect which has heightened uncertainty on what could trigger BoJ action, heightened market instability.
MOF rep will closely be watching the markets, coordinating with global community and the communique of Feb G20 finance leaders' meeting will also include on the factors which Japan considered important.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
24 Mar 2016 04:07GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro is nursing loss in Asian morning after falling for 4 consecutive days to 1.1159 in New York on Wednesday in the aftermath of Tuesday's bombing attacks in Brussels.
The lack of a rebound suggests intra-day downside bias remains as offers are tipped at 1.1190/00 and more above with stops reported above 1.1240.
Some bids are noted at 1.1160 with stops touted below 1.1150.
Ahead of the long Easter holiday in Europe, there is a slew of economic data due out in European morning with Germany's April Gfk consumer sentiment, France's business climate, Italy's industrial orders and retail sales .
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand exports, imports, trade balance, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, Markit manufacturing flash PMI, Markit service flash PMI, France business climate, Markit manufacturing flash PMI, Markit service flash PMI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, retail sales, Eurozone Markit manufacturing flash PMI, Markit service flash PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI distributive trades survey, U.S. building permits, durable goods, initial jobless claims and Markit manufacturing flash PMI.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 24 Mar 2016 09:07 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.85
Dlr's intra-day brief break of yesterday's 112.91 high confirms near term upmove from last Thursday's 16-month bottom has once again resumed and as long as 112.30 (Asia low) holds, further gain to 113.30/34 is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below res at 113.82 and yield subsequent strong retreat.
On the downside, below 112.30 would signal 1st leg of correction is over and risk weakness to 111.84/88, however, sup at 111.38 should continue to hold from here and yield another leg of upmove next week.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Mar 2016 01:16GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr moves sideways in quiet Asian trading after clocking up 7 days of consecutive gains on Monday. Despite climbing to a fresh 1-week high of 113.69 in holiday-thinned Asian morning yesterday, price briefly dropped to 113.15 in New York morning on soft U.S. PCE data as the lower-than-expected reading quickly led U.S. economists cut their forecast on U.S. Q1 GDP growth.
Looks like range trading below said yesterday's temporary top would continue in Asian morning, however, as dlr is still in trending mode, buying the pair on dips is still the favoured strategy.
Bids are noted at 113.25-15 and more below with stops touted below 112.90, offers are tipped at 113.65/75 and more above with stop reported Book value-bv 114.00.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Mar 2016 02:23GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Euro edges lower in Asian morning after yesterday's intra-day rally following release of soft U.S. inflation data, price jumped above 1.1176 res immediately after the data, tripping stops above there and euro then climbed to 1.1220 before paring intra-day gain on upbeat U.S. pending home sales report.
Current softness suggests consolidation below said Monday's 1.1220 top would be seen, however, as yesterday's rally signals recent decline has made a temporary low last week at 1.1144 (Thursday), buying interest near 1.1176 is expected to contain weakness and bring another rebound later today.
Offers are tipped at 1.1210/20 with stops above there, more selling interest is reported at 1.1240/50.
Bids are noted at 1.1180-70 and more below with stops touted below 1.1140.
The only economic data coming from Europe today is Italy's business and consumer confidence indices, so all eyes are on U.S. data n Fed Chair Yellen's speech later today.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
Japan Released A Slew Of Economic Data
Japan released a slew of economic data ahead of Asian open. Japanese consumer spending in February rose for the first time in six months, but slowing wage growth and worries about overseas economies means the government remains under pressure to come up with stimulus to boost the economy.
While Labour demand remained at the highest in two decades but the jobless rate rose slightly in February, in a tentative sign of a pause in recent improvements in the labour market.
With the slowing wage growth and worries about risks posed by weak emerging market, the economies is likely to fuel speculation that Japan's government will launch a new round of stimulus spending and delay a sales tax increase scheduled for next year.
Japanese household spending had risen 1.2 percent in February from a year earlier in price-adjusted real terms, also, there were increased spending on medical care, cars, dining out and mobile phone data plans drove gains in household spending.
The rise compared with the median forecast for a 1.5 percent annual decline and followed a 3.1 percent annual decline in January.
Separate data showed retail sales rose 0.5 percent in February from a year earlier, less than the median forecast for a 1.7 percent annual increase.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose in February to 3.3 percent, from 3.2 percent in the previous month. The median estimate was for the jobless rate to remain unchanged.
The jobs-applicants held steady at a 24-year high of 1.28 in February, less than the median estimate for a rise to 1.29, separate data by the labour ministry showed.
Japanese Trade Union Confederation data show the overall companies has raised wages on an average 2.1 percent at this year's annual spring salary negotiations, which is less than the 2.4 percent average increase last year, a negative factor for the consumption outlook.
The domestic consumption has mostly struggled since the government raised the sales tax in 2014. A second sales tax hike is due in 2017, which is part of a two-step plan to raise more money for healthcare spending.
Some prominent overseas economists have recently joined advisers close to the prime minister in calling for next year's tax hike to be shelved in favour of more stimulus spending.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 29 Mar 2016 05:45 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1196
Despite yesterday's narrow movement in subdued Asian session, subsequent rally above 1.1176 res (now sup) to 1.1220 in holiday-thinned New York morning after release of soft U.S. inflation data confirms euro's recent decline from March's 1-month peak at 1.1343 has formed a temporary low last Thursday at 1.1144 and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for marginal gain, reckon 1.1260 would cap present rise and yield another fall.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1176 would signal aforesaid correction has ended, re-test of 1.1144 would be seen, then weakness to 1.1125.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 29 Mar 2016 08:21 GMT
USD/JPY - 113.65
U.S. dollar's intra-day break of yesterday's 113.69 high confirms near term upmove from last March's 16-month bottom has once again resumed and as long as 113.15 support holds, further gain to 114.00/10 is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 114.45 today and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 113.15 would signal a temporary top has possibly been made and risk weakness towards 112.20/37.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
more updates in the next thread