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AceTraderFx Dec 8: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Dec 2014 00:48GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Although dlr climbed to a fresh 7-year peak of 121.85 ahead of Tloyo open on Mon, release of downbeat revision in Japan's Q3 GDP triggered buying of yen on risk aversion.
Reuters reported Japan's economic contraction in Jul-Sep was deeper than initially expected on declines in capital expenditure, according to revised data on Mon that backs PM Shinzo Abe's recent decision to delay a 2nd sales tax hike.
The data indicated that the hit fm Apr's sales tax hike turned out to be bigger than expected.
Abe, who has called a snap poll for Sun, hopes voters will agree that his stimulus policies n a decision to delay a 2nd sales tax hike next year will revive a sputtering economy.
The key factor behind the downgrade was a 0.4% decrease in capital expenditure, which was revised from a preliminary 0.2% fall after incorporating last week's upbeat corporate capital spending survey.
On Apr 1, Japan's sales tax increased to 8% fm 5%. After that hit household spending n led to Nov. 17's dismal preliminary GDP data showing the economy was in recession, Abe postponed a 2nd tax hike to 10% by 18 months until Apr 2017.
The revised GDP data could be bad news for the BoJ, which will scrutinise it n other factors at a two-day rate review that ends on Fri. The central bank, which eased policy on Oct. 31, is widely expected to keep monetary settings unchanged and maintain its upbeat view of the economy.
Economists expect Japan to resume moderate growth in the current quarter on signs corporate and household spending are gradually recovering fm the pain caused by the Apr tax hike.
This week will see the release of the following economic data:
Japan's Reuters Tankan DI, GDP, Current account, Tertiary industry index, Economy Watchers Poll, UK's BoE Quarterly Bulletin, China's Trade Balance, Imports and Exports, Germany's Industrial output, Switzerland's CPI, EU's Sentix Investment Confidence, Canada Housing starts, building permits, U.S. employment trends on Monday.
U.K.'s BRC retail sales, Australia NAB Business Confidence, NAB Business conditions, Switzerland's unemployment rate, Germany's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, France's Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, U.K.'s Industrial output, Manufacturing Output, NIESR GDP Estimate, U.S.'s NFIB Business Optimism, Redbook, Wholesale inventories, Wholesale sales on Tuesday.
New Zealand's Government Monthly Debt, Government Optg Balance, Japan's Business Survey Index, Corp Goods Price, Australia's Housing Finance, Invest Housing Finance, China's CPI, PPI, Japan's Consumer Confidence, Machine tool orders, France's non-farm payrolls, Industrial Output, U.K.'s Trade Balance, U.S. Federal Budget on Wednesday.
New Zealand's RBNZ rate decision, Japan's Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia's Employment, Unemployment rate, Germany's CPI, HICP, France's CPI, Switzerland's SNB rate decision, Italy's Industrial output, U.S.'s Export prices, Import prices, Retail sales, Initial jobless claims, Business inventories, Canada's New Housing Price Index and Capacity Utilization on Thursday.
New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI, Japan's Capacity Utilization Index Change, Industrial output, Chain's Industrial output, retail sales, France's Current account, Italy's Consumer Prices, U.K.'s Construction O/P, EU's employment, Industrial production, U.S.'s PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Index on Friday.
AceTraderFx Dec 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Dec 2014
GBP/USD - ..... Although the pound continued Friday's descent and dropped marginally below NY low of 1.5568 to a fresh 14-month low of 1.5562 due to renewed weakness in the Brent crude oil (price fell below Friday's $69.07 low to 68.12) in Australia, lack of follow-through selling and intra-day recovery in the usd/usd in Asia prompted minor short covering in cable also.
Price showed muted reaction to release of the BoE 2014 Q4 Quarterly Bulletin earlier (available on ww.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q4.pdf ).
Looks like the intra-day low print wud stay until European open and as no U.K. economic data are due out today, cable is likely to move in tandem with intra-day swings in eur/usd.
Offers are noted at 1.5600/05 and more at 1.5620/25 with stops above 1.5650.
Some bids are reported at 1.5665-60 with some stops below 1.5550, suggesting selling the pound on intra-day recovery is the way to go.
A piece of weekend's Reuters news report worth noting, the British public have scaled back their expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates over the next 12 months to the lowest in a year, a survey by the central bank showed on Friday.
The change in public expectations mirrors a shift in sentiment among professional economists as the outlook for growth in Britain's main euro zone export market has darkened n inflation looks set to fall further below target. The proportion of Britons expecting rates to increase in the next year sank to 37% in Nov, its lowest since Nov 2013, fm a 3-year high of 49% in Aug.
Economists polled by Reuters last week forecast interest rates would rise fm their record low 0.5% between Jul n Sep next year, n in recent days financial markets have priced a move even later.
In early Nov, BoE Governor Mark Carney did not dispute financial market estimates of a rate rise around Oct, n said consumer price inflation was likely to dip below 1% in the coming months due to a sharp fall in oil prices.
British consumer price inflation in Oct rose to 1.3% after touching a 5-year low of 1.2% in Sep. The longer-running retail price index, which is used to determine price rises in many British contracts, held at 2.3%.
A similar survey by polling company YouGov for U.S. bank Citi showed last week that Britons' inflation expectations for the year to come had fallen to a 5-year low of 1.8% in Nov.The BoE survey, which is conducted by GfK n covers nearly 2,000 people, showed that inflation expectations for 2 years ahead sank to 2.5% fm 2.8%, n that people expected inflation of around 3.0% in 5 years' time.
AceTraderFx Dec 8:Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 07 Dec 2014 23:40GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
121.10
55 HR EMA
120.42
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm
13 HR RSI
76
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 uptrend resumes
Resistance
122.87 - 2 times ext. of 113.86-118.98 fm 117.24
122.36 - 100% proj. of 113.86-118.98 fm 117.24
121.85 - Intra-day high (Aust.)
Support
120.28 - Hourly chart
120.69 - Last Fri's Euroepan morning high
120.25 - Last Thur's high
. USD/JPY - 121.71...Dollar rose above Nov's 118.98 peak to a fresh 7-year high of 119.15 after Moody's cut Japan's credit rating last Mon, profit-taking quickly knocked price to 117.87 but buyers emerged n price climbed steadily for next 4 consecutive days n rallied to 121.69 after robust U.S. payrolls data Fri.
. Looking at the bigger picture, last week's close abv key 'psychological' 120.00 bodes well for the greenback to continue its LT ascent fm 2011 record low at 75.32 to 122.36, this is equality projection of intermediate rise fm 113.86-118.98 measured fm 117.24, then twd 124.06/124.14 (2.618 extension of 96.55-105.45 fm 100.76 n 2007 peak in Jun respectively), however, as both hourly n daily technical indicators' reading wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, risk is seen for a long-overdue correction to take place later this week. On the downside, a daily close below 120.00 wud signal a temporary top is in place n yield subsequent retracement to 119.33.
. Today, as price has risen abv Fri's 121.69 to 121.85 in Australia, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go, expected o/bot readings on next upmove shud cap price at 122.36 n yield pullback.
AceTraderFx Dec 9: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Dec 2014 02:25GMT
USD/JPY - ....... The greenback tumbled from yesterday's fresh 7-year high at 121.85 (AUS) to as low as 120.20 (NY) due to active long liquidations as Japan's Nikkei-225 index fell sharply following the decline in global stock markets.
Despite staging a brief recovery to 121.00 at Tokyo opening, selling interest there capped dlr's upside somewhat.
Offers are now tipped at 120.90-00 and more at 121.20-30.
On the downside, some bids are located at 120.50 and 120.30-20.
Earlier statement statement from Japan FinMin, quote:
'don't think Japan in recession;
to stick to aim of achieving primary budget surplus in FY2020/21 although sales tax hike delay makes it harder to meet the target;
won't comment on FX levels;
closely watching market moves.'
'there are signs that wages will continue rising, allowing economy to withstand future tax hike;
decline in oil prices is likely to offset rise in import prices due to weak yen.'
Tuesdaywill see the release of U.K.'s BRC retail sales, Australia NAB Business Confidence, NAB Business conditions, Switzerland's unemployment rate, Germany's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, France's Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, U.K.'s Industrial output, Manufacturing Output, NIESR GDP Estimate, U.S.'s NFIB Business Optimism, Redbook, Wholesale inventories, Wholesale sales. EU finance ministers meet in Brussels.
AceTraderFx Dec 9: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Dec 2014 00:18GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.9774
55 HR EMA
0.9767
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
46
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT downtrend
Resistance
0.9875 - 61.8% proj. of 0.8857-0.8690 fm 0.9360
0.9843 - 1.236 times extn. of 0.9530-0.9731 fm 0.9695
0.9818 - Y'day's high
Support
0.9738 - Last Fri's Euroepean high
0.9703 - Last Fri's low
0.9650 - Last Thur's low
. USD/CHF - 0.9767... Despite a brief retreat to 0.9774 in Asian morning y'day, renewed buying emerged n pushed price higher to a fresh 1-1/2 year peak of 0.9818 in European morning on renewed euro's weakness. However, price pared retreated sharply to 0.9738 in NY session due to broad-based usd's decline.
. Despite dlr's resumption of the 3-legged uptrend fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 to 0.9818, subsequent retreat to 0.9738 suggests a minor top is possibly in place n below 0.9703 wud add credence to this view, then several days of choppy consolidation with downside bias wud be seen n bring a long-overdue minor correction to 0.9650, however, reckon 0.9595 sup wud remain intact n yield subsequent rebound. On the upside, abv 0.9818 wud yield marginal gain twd 0.9875, this is 61.8% proj. of the MT intermediate rise fm 0.8857-0.8690 measured fm 0.9360. Having said that, as hourly & daily indicators' readings wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, 'psychological res at 1.0000 shud remain intact this week n bring a strg correction.
. Today, in view of broad consolidation outlook, we're trading dlr on both sides of the market n wud sell on recovery or buy on next intra-day decline.
AceTraderFx Dec 10: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY AUD/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Dec 2014 02:01GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Despite yesterday's sharp sell off from 121.00 to as low as 117.90 due to renew risk aversion on political instability in Greece together with the sell off in European equities, the greenback rebounded strongly in late NY on the rebound in U.S. stock markets.
The pair rose to 119.92 in Asian morning as Nikkei-225 index pared some of early losses.
Bids are now located at 119.70-65, 119.50 and more at 119.30.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 120.00 and 120.10-20.
On the data front, Japan will release its consumer confidence index at 05:00GMT.
AUD/USD - ........ Australian dollar fell in Asian morning after the release of lower-than-expected China's CPI and PPI data which came in at -0.2% m/m or 1.4% y/y and -2.7% y/y versus 0.0% m/m or 1.6% y/y and -2.4% y/y respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 11: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Dec 2014 02:35GMT
USD/JPY- ....... The greenback tumbled against the Japanese yen due to renewed risk aversion on the sell off in global stock markets. Nikkiei-225 index fell by more than 1% following Wednesday's 268 points drop in Dow Jones index. The pair weakened to as low as 117.45 in Tokyo morning before rebounding strongly to 118.33 on short-covering.
Offers are now tipped at 118.20 and more at 118.30-40.
On the downside, some bids are located at 117.70 and 117.50.
Investors are now focusing on an election sweep for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this weekend.
Nikkei news reported this morning that Abe needs big margin of victory to retain influence, the LDP and Komeito held 326 out of 480 seats in the lower house before it was dissolved last month; following a slight trim, 475 seats will be up for grabs on December 14; LDP and Komeito leaders have set a joint goal of winning at least 270; they need 266 seats needed to guarantee majorities on all of the house? standing committees; a senior LDP election strategist reckons the party will win in 20 to 30 fewer districts than in 2012, but will pick up more seats determined by proportional representation; if Komeito manages to maintain its status quo ante of 31 seats, the coalition stands a good chance of taking 270 to 300 seats, give or take a few, says a senior LDP lawmaker.
Thursday will see the release of Japan's Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia's Employment, Unemployment rate, Germany's CPI, HICP, France's CPI, Switzerland's SNB rate decision, Italy's Industrial output, U.S.'s Export prices, Import prices, Retail sales, Initial jobless claims, Business inventories, Canada's New Housing Price Index and Capacity Utilization.
AceTraderFx Dec 12: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Dec 2014 02:15GMT
USD/JPY- ....... The greenback swung wildly against the Japanese yen on Thursday. Despite hitting a fresh 2-week low of 117.45 in Tokyo morning on Thursday, dollar ratcheted higher and rose to 119.56 on active short-covering due to the rebound in Nikkei-225 index following the rise in U.S. stock markets.
However, the sell off in crude oil prices (broke $60 per barrel) in late NY knocked price lower to 118.61.
Offers are now tipped at 119.10-20 and more at 119.40-50.
On the downside, some bids are located at 118.70-60 with stops seen below 118.50.
Friday will see the release of New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI, Japan's Capacity Utilization Index Change, Industrial output, Chain's Industrial output, retail sales, German Wholesale Price, France's Current account, Italy's Consumer Prices, U.K.'s Construction O/P, EU's employment, Industrial production, U.S.'s PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Index.
AceTraderFx Dec 12: Daily Market outlook on Major USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK -USD/JPY
Update Time: 12 Dec 2014 07:09 GMT
The greenback swung wildly against the Japanese yen on Thursday. Despite hitting a fresh 2-week low of 117.45 in Tokyo morning on Thursday, dollar ratcheted higher and rose to 119.56 on active short-covering due to the rebound in Nikkei-225 index following the rise in U.S. stock markets together with upbeat U.S. retail sales data, however, profit-taking ahead of Japan's election over the weekend knocked price lower to 118.51 in Asia today.
Further choppy consolidation inside recent established broad range of 117.45-119.56 is expected to continue.
Above 119.56 would bring stronger gain to 119.93 and 120.20.
On the downside, below 118.51 would risk stronger pullback to 117.85 but support at 117.45 is expected to remain intact.
AceTraderFx Dec 12: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 12 Dec 2014 00:08GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.9683
55 HR EMA
0.9691
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
54
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
0.9818 - Mon's high
0.9778 - Tue's high
0.9723 - Y'day's high
Support
0.9628 - Y'day's low
0.9616 - 01 Dec low
0.9595 - 26 Nov low
. USD/CHF - 0.9693... Although dlr resumed its recent descent on Thur n weakened to session low of 0.9628 at Asian open, price rebounded to 0.9679 b4 retreating. Dlr again ratcheted to 0.9679 in Europe b4 rising to the day's high of 0.9710, helped by upbeat U.S. data b4 retreating due to fall in the Dow.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite y'day's breach of Tue's low at 0.9654 to 0.9628, subsequent strg rebound suggests the 1st leg of correct ion fm Mon's fresh 1-1/2 year peak at 0.9818 has ended there n consolidation with upside bias wud be seen, abv res 0.9710 wud add credence to this view n extend gain twds 0.9778. A daily close abv there wud indicate the MT 3-legged upmove fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 has resumed n yield re-test of 0.9818 next week. On the downside, only below 0.9628 wud turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement of aforesaid MT uptrend twds 0.9616 (01 Dec low), then 0.9595 (26 Nov low) later.
. Today, in view of abv analysis we are buying the greenback again on dips in anticipation of another rise to 0.9735 but 0.9778 res wud remain intact. Only below 0.9628 wud extend weakness twd daily chart sup at 0.9595.