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AceTraderFx Dec 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views(USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Dec 2014 02:02GMT
USD/JPY- 118.83 ... U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 7-year high of 119.02 against the Japanese yen on amid growing concerns over deflationary pressure in Japan due to the sell off in crude oil prices together with the release of weaker-than-expected China manufacturing PMI data.
Bids are now located at 118.70-60 and more at 118.50 whilst some offers are tipped at 119.00 and 119.20-30.
Statements from Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga says capital spending is on rising trend on back of firm corporate earnings;
expect CAPEX will continue to rise;
will monitor FX movements.
Last Friday closing the greenback rallied to as high as 118.76 against the Japanese yen on dlr's broad-based strength together with active cross selling in yen especially versus euro.
Bids were then located at 118.50, 118.35/30 and more at 118.10-00.
On the upside, offers were tipped at 118.90/95 with stops building up above 119.00.
AceTraderFx Dec 1: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Dec 2014 00:07GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.5660
55 HR EMA
1.5795
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
32
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Possible resumption of MT downtrend
Resistance
1.5778 - Last Thur's Asian low
1.5725 - Last Fri's European high
1.5680 - Last wed's low
Support
1.5603 - Intra-day low low
1.5590 - Nov 19 14-month low
1.5528 - 50% proj. of 1.6186-1.5590 fm 1.5826
. GBP/USD - 1.5617... Cable went through a roller-coaster session last wk. Although renewed buying at 1.5629 on Mon lifted price n continued short-covering helped price penetrate prev. week's high at 1.5737 on Wed. Cable climbed to 1.5826 Thur but only to tumble 1.5614 on Fri due to 2-day sell off in the Brent.
. Looking at bigger picture, cable's foresaid decline from 1.5826 signals the correction from November's 14-month bottom at 1.5590 has ended there n price is en-route to re-test said temporary low soon, break wud confirm the MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has once again resumed n yield further weakness to 1.5528, then 1.5458, being 50% & 61.8% projections respectively of intermediate fall fm 1.6186-1.5590 measured fm 1.5826. Having said that, as hourly & daily technical indicators wud display 'bullish convergence' on such move, reckon 1.5385 (100% proj. of 1.7192-1.6052 measured fm 1.6525) wud remain intact. On the upside, only abv 1.5826 wud confirm low is made n yield stronger correction twd next chart obj. at 1.5945 later this month.
. Today, price has fallen after meeting renewed selling at 1.5659 (AUS) n re-test of 1.5590 is envisaged, break wud extend to 1.5550/60 later today
AceTraderFx Dec 2: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Dec 2014 01:53GMT
USD/JPY- ...... Although U.S. dollar rose briefly to a fresh 7-year peak of 119.15 yesterday after Moody's cut Japan's sovereign ratings, the pair a dramatic reversal due to a broad-based rebound in commodity prices and dlr weakened to 117.88 in NY before staging another rebound due to upbeat comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer who gave dollar bulls some confidence.
U.S. dollar ratcheted higher to 118.46 on short-covering, however, renewed selling interest is tipped below 118.50 and more offers are located at 118.70-80 with stops only seen above 119.00.
On the downside, some bids are located at 118.10-00 with stops seen below 117.88.
Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato says will continue to monitor JGB market n take appropriate debt management steps as needed; many market participants praise PM's commitment to not delay sales tax hike again; PM will present specific fiscal consolidation plan by summer next year.
Tuesdaywill see the release of Australia's Building Approvals and Current Account Deficit, RBA rate decision and statement, UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, eurozone Producer Prices, US Redbook and Construction Spending.
AceTraderFx Dec 3: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Dec 2014 02:01GMT
USD/JPY- 119.33 ... The greenback rallied to a fresh 7-year high at 119.44 in Tokyo morning on improved risk appetite due to the rally in global stock markets together with the release of slightly better-than-expected China's HSBC services PMI which came in at 53.0 versus previous reading of 52.9. Nikkei-225 currently rises by 199 points to 17862 following the 102 points rise in Dow Jones index on Tuesday.
Bids are now located at 119.15-10, 119.00 n more at 118.80. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 119.40-50, 119.70-80 n more at 120.00 (sizeable).
Yesterday, the NY morning despite a brief pullback fm a fresh 119.28 to 119.04, dlr had risen again n rose 1-pip higher to a fresh 7-year peak at 119.29. Although dlr maintained a firm bias after intra-day resumption of LT uptrend, as investors showed muted reaction to the release of upbeat U.S. construction spending data, suggesting sharp gain was not likely to be seen n price shud falter well below psychological res at 120.00, yield retreat later. U.S. Oct construction spending came at +1.1%, higher than expectation of 0.6% n also the highest lvl since May.
Wednesday will see the release of Australia's GDP, China's NBS Non-Mfg PMI and HSBC Services PMI, Swiss GDP, Germany's Markit Services PMI, eurozone Markit Services Final PMI, UK Markit/CIPS Serv PMI, eurozone Retail Sales, US ADP National Employment, Productivity Revised, Markit Comp Final PMI, ISM Non-Mfg PMI, Bank of Canada Rate Decision and statement, US Fed's Beige Book.
AceTraderFx Dec 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Dec 2014
GBP/USD- ...... Cable pares intra-day losses in Europe n rebounded briefly after stronger-than-expected U.K. services PMI. November reading came in at 58.6, much higher than market estimate of 56.5, previous month's reading was 56.2.
The pound hit a low of 1.5619 before the data and briefly bounced to 1.5671 after the release, however, price quickly eased back to 1.5650 as offers at 1.5670/80 have capped intra-day rebound, suggesting range trading above 1.5619 would be seen ahead of the delivery of the annual Autumn Statement by FnMin George Osborne at 12:30GMT.
In the meantime, offers are tipped at 1.5670/80 n more above with stops above 1.5700.
Bids are noted at 1.5620-00 area with stops building below last week's fresh 14-month low at 1.5585.
More on the upbeat U.K. services PMI, Britain's services sector expanded faster than expected last month, a survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting the economy may be slowing less than previously thought following a year of robust growth.
The closely watched Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 58.6 in Nov after falling sharply to 56.2 in October, beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll, amid reports of firm demand and increased new business.
The rise in the index was the biggest in over a year, and it has exceeded the 50 level that represents growth for nearly 2 years. A corresponding manufacturing survey on Monday also showed a rebound, though Tuesday's construction PMI was weaker. Markit said that taken together, the surveys suggested Britain's economy will grow by 0.6% in the final 3 months of 2014, up fm a previous estimate of 0.5%.
The data is likely to be welcomed by FinMin George Osborne, who gives a half-yearly update on official growth and borrowing forecasts later on Wed, his penultimate such statement before May's national election. The BoE forecasts Britain's economy will grow by 3.5% this year, faster than any other big advanced economy, before growth slows to 2.9% next year.
AceTraderFx Dec 4: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Dec 2014 01:32GMT
USD/JPY- ...... BoJ board member Takehero Sata who is speaking at a meeting with business leaders in Kochi quoting his speech by Reuters :
-efforts to restore fiscal health important when BoJ seeks o exit QQE;
-success of QQE hinges on govt's commitment to fiscal reform;
-have proposed making BoJ's price target a flexible one with room for some allowance;
-BoJ's tools to respond ltd if concern over govt's commitment heightens, raises risk premium in JGB market;
-prices reflect state of economy n are not a variable that can be controlled by a central bank;
-what's important is not to focus on monthly fluctuations of CPI but to scrutinise wide range of data in forward-looking manner;
-dissented fm Oct 31 easing as virtuous cycle of eco. activity n prices was basically intact;
-marginal effect of expanding QQE won't be large given nominal interest rates already at historically low levels;
-must watch whether BoJ's asset buying creates distortions on eco. activity or accumulation of financial imbalances;
-there is uncertainty on whether global growth will steadily heighten IMF projects;
-must be mindful of risk of Europe experiencing prolonged low inflation or slipping into deflation;
-expect Japan's economy to recover moderately as a trend as exports have stopped falling;
-risk to Japan's economy are exports, effect of weak yen on domestic demand, n outlook of household, business sentiment;
-Japan's CPI growth may stall around middle of next year given commodity price moves;
-commodity price falls positive for Japan's economy, will push up overall prices in long run.
Thursdaywill see the release of Australia's Retail Sales and Trade Balance, UK Halifax house prices, Swiss Industrial Orders, BOE rate decision, ECB rate decision, ECB press conference, US Initial jobless claims, Canada's Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Dec 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Dec 2014
EUR/USD - ...... The single currency ratcheted lower on Wednesday and tumbled to a fresh 27-month low at 1.2301 after as a survey showed euro zone business activity grew less than thought last month. Market players are focusing on today's ECB rate decision and statement. ECB is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged and more stimulus measures are expected from ECB.
Offers this morning was now tipped at 1.2330-40 and more at 1.2355-60.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops was located at 1.2300 option barrier.
Reuters reported Greece will have to ask for an extension on its bailout programme before parliaments in euro zone nations close for Christmas because a new credit line will not be ready in time, a senior euro zone official said on Wed.
After 2 bailouts totalling 240 bln euros since 2010, Greece wants to switch back to market financing from the start of next year but disagreement over Greece's funding needs next year means the euro zone cannot sign off on a back-up credit line.
"I'm willing to work on Dec. 24 but parliaments are not around," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity, setting Dec. 15 as the cut-off date for prolonging Greece's existing programme into Jan so that lenders can make a final 1.8 bln euro payment. All euro zone parliaments must approve that extension.
Greece and its lenders aimed to get a deal on a credit line - which Athens would only tap in an emergency - by next Mon when the IMF, the European Commission n the ECB, or troika, report back to euro zone FinMins in Brussels.
The official said that ideally Greece should formally request the credit line n the technical extension at the same time, although he saw this as unlikely to happen on Monday.
AceTraderFx Dec 4:Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 04 Dec 2014 00:17GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.5679
55 HR EMA
1.5678
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
57
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue
Resistance
1.5826 - Last Thur's high
1.5763 - Mon's high
1.5719 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5619 - Y'day's low
1.5585 - Mon's fresh 14-1/2 month low
1.5528 - 50% proj. of 1.6186-1.5590 fm 1.5826
. GBP/USD- 1.5690... Cable swung wildly on Wed, despite a euro-led brief drop fm 1.5656 to 1.5619 in Europe, cross-buying in sterling lifted price n cable rebounded on short covering after upbeat U.K. services PMI n the upgrade of U.K. growth forecasts fm OBR. Price rose to 1.5719 in NY b4 retreating.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite cable's strg decline after Mon's rally fm a fresh 14-1/2 month trough at 1.5585 to 1.5763, y'day's rebound fm 1.5619 suggests further choppy trading abv said temporary bottom wud continue . Although consolidation with near term upside bias is seen, as long as 1.5763 res (reaction high) holds, prospect of another fall later today or tom still remains. Looking ahead, a breach of 1.5619 wud signal MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has resumed n bring re-test of 1.5585, break wud extend subsequent weakness to 1.5528, this is the 50% projection of intermediate fall fm 1.6186-1.5590 measured fm 1.5826.
. On the upside, abv 1.5763 wud confirm a temporary low is made instead n stronger retracement to 1.5826 wud follow. We are standing aside initially today n investors shud pay attention to the release of BoE rate decision at 12:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Dec 5: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Dec 2014 02:18 GMT
EUR/USD ...... Euro staged a ferocious rally after ECB President left the door open on the exact timing of next stimulus move. Reuters reported the ECB will decide early next year whether to take further action to revive the euro zone's economy, its president said on Thur, signalling that he would not allow opposition from Germany or anyone else to stop it.
In his clearest language yet, Mario Draghi underlined the central bank's commitment to supporting the ailing economy of the 18-country bloc, and argued the case for printing fresh money to buy assets such as state bonds. But his remarks, which came within minutes of a meeting where he clashed with German officials over his ambitions, set him on a possible collision course with the euro zone's biggest and single most important country.
Very low inflation is seen as a trigger for ECB action such as printing fresh money to buy gov't bonds, a step known as quantitative easing (QE) which Germany opposes. "QE has been shown to be effective in the U.S. & U.K.," Draghi told journalists at a press conference, saying that he would not 'tolerate' the prospect of price stability, the ECB's central goal, drifting off course. Perhaps most significantly, however, Draghi made clear that he would face down the considerable political opposition to further radical action.
The single currency swung wildly on Thursday. Despite euro's weakness to a fresh 27-month low of 1.2280 at the start of ECB's press conference, the pair rebounded strongly to as high as 1.2457 as ECB refrained from adding stimulus measures and will review the monetary policy in Q1 2015. However, renewed selling knocked price lower to 1.2360 near New York close.
Offers are now reported at 1.2400-10 n more at 1.2430-50.
On the downside, mixture of bids n stops seen at 1.2360 n 1.2340.
Investors are now focusing on the release of Germany's industrial orders at 07:00GMT and euro zone revised GDP data at 10:00GMT.
Friday'swill see the release of Japan's Leading Indicator, Germany's Industrial Orders, UK Consumer inflation expectations, euro zone revised GDP, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings, Canada's Unemployment Rate, Employment Change and Trade Balance, US Factory Orders and Durable Goods.
AceTraderFx Dec 5:Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 05 Dec 2014 00:14GMT
Trend Daily Chart
1.2364
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
Down
55 HR EMA
1.2364
Trend Hourly Chart
58
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
Sideways
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consoldiation iwth a neutral bias
Resistance
1.2532 - Last Wed's high
1.2507 - Mon's high
1.2457 - Y'day's high
Support
1.2340 - Hourly chart
1.2280 - Y'day fresh 27-month low
1.2242 - 2012 Aug 10 low
. EUR/USD - 1.23845... Euro rallied sharply against the usd on Thur as ECB refrained fm adding stimulus measures. Although price briefly fell to a fresh 27-month low at 1.2280 at the start of ECB's press conference, euro jumped to 1.2414 n then rose to 1.2457 on short-covering b4 retreating to 1.2360.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally fm a fresh 27-month trough to as high as 1.2457 in choppy NY session suggests MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has formed a temporary low there n despite subsequent retreat, as long as 1.2325 (Thur's European morning high, now sup) holds, consolidation with upside bias remains, a daily close abv 1.2457 wud add credence to this view, then euro bring another leg of correction twd 1.2525/32(50% r of 1.2771-1.2280 n Nov 26 high respectively), however, as hourly technical indicators' readings wud be in o/bot territory on such move, a strg retreat is likely to take place next week.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we're trading euro on both sides of the market initially as choppy sideways move is expected ahead of the key monthly U.S. jobs data. Only below 1.2280 wud risk one more fall to 1.2245/55.