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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 21/06/2010 22:38 GMT
Euro falls as optimism fades from China's currency move
The single currency rallied to a high as 1.2490 in the NZ session on Monday due to improved risk appetite after weekend's announcement by PBOC to allow greater flexibility of the yuan ahead of the coming G20 meeting prompted investors to buy riskier assets initially. Stocks and commodity currencies also rallied in Asia and Europe. However, euro ended the day down against the dollar as the single currency was pressured by Fitch's downgrade of French bank BNP Paribas, this action had caused the yuan-induced euphoria to fade quickly on lingering worries over the European debt crisis. ECB's Trichet said that governments which breached the EU's fiscal rules could face tougher punishment, such as loss of voting rights and his comments also pressured euro, price eventually fell to 1.2303 in NY afternoon while DJI also pared all initial gains and ended the day down. Cross-selling in euro especially against the Swiss franc also pressured euro as eur/chf fell to a fresh lifetime low of 1.3665.
In other news, Fitch Ratings cut its rating on French bank BNP Paribas on Monday by one notch to AA- but the outlook is stable. Euro was pressured as investors were worried as the European debt crisis would spread to the European banking system. Earlier, the PBOC said over weekend that ' a more flexible currency will direct resources to domestic-demand driven sectors such as services and help curb an excessive reliance on exports'.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback opened lower in NZ and fell to 90.01, bargain hunting by Japanese importers quickly lifted the pair and the yuan's fixing (6.8275) was the same as Friday's level. The pair then maintained a firm undertone as firmness in Asian equities (N225 up 2.4% and Shanghai Composite up by 2.9%) boosted risk appetite for yen carry trades. The pair rose sharply and eventually reached 91.48 in European mid-day. However, the pair retreated sharply from there and ended the day at 91.09 as DJI pared initial gains of 144 points and ended the day down by 8 points at 10442.
The British pound rallied in tandem with euro in NZ and climbed to 1.4936 at European opening but cable fell sharply in tandem with euro and weakened to 1.4738 in NY afternoon.
The commodity currencies also rose as PBOC's move would boost China's buying power abroad and aud/usd surged to 0.8860 while nzd/usd rose to 0.7153 and spot gold hit a record high of 1265.10. However, the commodity currencies pared their gains later due to euro's weakness.
Economic data to be released on Tuesday include: Swiss Trade balance , Germany Ifo index , EU Current account , Consumer Confidence , Canada CPI , U.S. Existing home sales.
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GBP/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4733
Last Update At 22 Jun 2010 06:04 GMT
Cable's breach of 1.4738 signals decline fm
y'day's high of 1.4936 to retrace recent erratic
upmove fm 1.4228has once again resumed n further
weakness to 1.4682/90 is likely, however, o/sold
condition shud limit fall to 1.4646 sup.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated n only
abv 1.4797 wud signal a low is made.
Range Forecast
1.4750 / 1.4790
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4808/1.4857/1.4888
S: 1.4719/1.4682/1.4646
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 22/06/2010 21:41 GMT
Yen rises as weakness in U.S. stocks sparks risk aversion
Yen rose on Tuesday as investors flocked to the Japanese yen as safe haven after U.S. stocks fell sharply due to poor U.S. economic data. DJI fell by 1.43% and ended the day at 10293 due to unexpected drop in U.S. housing sales, which fell by 2.2% to an annual rate of 5.66 million units from an upwardly revised 5.79 million units in April.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure on Tuesday and fell from 91.10 to 90.33 in NY afternoon. Aud/jpy dropped from 80.36 to 78.78 while eur/jpy slumped from 112.47 to 110.86.
The single currency briefly recovered to 1.2355 in Asian morning after China's central bank set yuan's mid-point rate at 6.7980 versus dollar, however, euro later fell to 1.2251 at N.Y. opening before staging a brief recovery.
The single currency was pressured yesterday as French bank Credit Agricole cut profit targets for its struggling Greek unit Emporiki on Tuesday and said it would take a 400 million euro write-down as Greece fought its debt load. Cross-selling in euro also weighed on price as eur/gbp fell from 0.8369 to 0.8276 while eur/chf fell to a fresh lifetime low of 1.3586.
Although the British pound remained under pressure in Asia and briefly dropped to 1.4688 after the announcement of U.K. emergency budget, cable rebounded strongly as Fitch Ratings said that Britain's latest budget plan, if adopted, would strengthen investors' confidence and the country's top AAA rating. Sterling climbed back to a high as 1.4859 in New York before retreating due to selloff in U.S. stocks in late US session.
U.K. finance minister George Osborne delivered the government's first budget. Osborne planned to cut current expenditure further of 30 billion pounds per year by 2014/15. The expenditure cuts would be additional to the labour's plans set out by the previous Government. Osborne added there would be no further reductions in capital spending in this budget.
Economic data to be released on Wednesday include: New Zealand Current account , Germany Services PMI , Manufacturing PMI , BoE releases minutes , CBI distribution trade , U.S. New home sales , Fed rate decision and FOMC meeting.
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Support, Resistance and Range Forecast by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 23 Jun 2010 06:00 GMT
Range Forecast
90.33 / 90.65
Resistance/Support
R: 90.86 / 91.12 / 91.48
S: 90.33 / 90.01 / 89.81
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 23 Jun 2010 06:03 GMT
Range Forecast
1.2255 / 1.2290
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2318/1.2355/1.2398
S: 1.2242/1.2215/1.2168
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 23 Jun 2010 06:05 GMT
Range Forecast
1.1070 / 1.1105
Resistance/Support
R: 1.1121/1.1138/1.1149
S: 1.1036/1.1009/1.0986
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 23 Jun 2010 06:06 GMT
Range Forecast
1.4815 / 1.4845
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4859/1.4890/1.4936
S: 1.4803/1.4783/1.4738
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 23/06/2010 21:33 GMT
Dollar slips as Fed turns cautious on U.S. economic recovery
Dollar fell against the Japanese yen and euro on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve remained cautious on the U.S. economy and reiterated its pledge to keep its ultra low interest rates for an extended period.
Fed kept the funds rate within the 0-0.25% range as widely expected and said financial conditions became less supportive on growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Fed added that prices of energy and other commodities declined, underlying inflation trended lower and inflation would likely to be subdued for some time. Fed said vote on policy was 9-1 with Hoenig dissenting, citing continued pledge of low rates could lead to imbalances.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure throughout the day on active cross buying in yen and the pair fell to 89.99 after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. new homes sales data, which dropped by 32.7% in May to record low of 300,000 unit annual rate versus the forecast of a decrease of 18.7% and downwardly revised reading of 446,000 in May. The pair fell further to an intra-day low of 89.73 after FOMC's rate decision.
Despite euro's recovery fm Asian low of 1.2244 to 1.2306, the single currency fell sharply at NY opening and hit an intra-day low of 1.2209 after the release of poor U.S. housing data. However, euro took a U-turn on active short-covering ahead of FOMC meeting and rallied to 1.2344 after FOMC's rate decision was announced due to dollar's broad-based weakness. Cross-buying in euro also lifted price as eur/jpy rebounded from 109.89 to 111.14 while eur/chf recovered from a fresh lifetime low of 1.3545.
On economic front, German Gfk index in July came in at 3.5 versus the economists' expectation of 3.3 n the previous reading of 3.5. German services and manufacturing PMI in June was 54.6 and 58.1 respectively.
In other news, the minutes of the BOE's June 9-10 meeting showed the Monetary Policy Committee was split 7-1 on its decision to leave rates unchanged this month after Andrew Sentance called for a 25 basis point rate rise. This was the first call for a UK rate rise since August 2008 as economists expected another unanimous decision. Cable surged above 1.4900 due to the unexpected vote outcome and the pair rose further to 1.4943 after the release of U.K. CBI trade data which came in at -5.0 in June versus the reading of -18.0 in May. Although sterling retreated from said 1.4943 high to 1.4850 in NY morning, renewed buying interest there lifted price again and cable extended recent upmove to a high of 1.4975 in tandem with euro due to dollar's broad-based weakness after FOMC rate announcement.
Economic data to be released on Thursday include: New Zealand GDP, Japan CSPI , Trade balance, EU Industrial orders, U.S. Durable goods.
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Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 24/06/2010 21:45 GMT
Dollar falls against euro and yen on Fed's cautious US outlook
The greenback remained under pressure versus the Japanese yen on Thursday as traders sold the pair after Fed turned cautious on U.S. recovery following the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. Despite brief rise to 89.98 in Australia, the pair fell to 89.22 in NY mid-day before staging a strong rebound to 89.71 as an auction of U.S. Treasury 7-year notes was met with solid demand. The usd/jpy pair eventually ended the day in decline though.
In other news, durable goods fell by 1.1% versus the forecast of decrease of 1.4%. U.S. jobless claims which fell to 457,000 from 476,000.
Although euro has fallen sharply from Asian high of 1.2353 to 1.2261 on renewed cross selling versus yen and sterling , the pair rebounded strongly from there and picked up more momentum after triggering stops above 1.2350/55 before rallying to 1.2388 in NY mid-day on active short-covering in euro as eur/gbp rebounded strongly from a fresh 2010 low of 0.8180. Euro then retreated from said intra-day high due to weakness in US stocks and ended the day up. DJI was dragged down by financials and ended the day down by 1.41% at 10152.80. Earlier, euro was pressured after the spreads of eurozone bonds widened and the cost of protecting Greek debt against default hit a record high.
On economic front, eurozone industrial production data in April came in at 0.9% m/m and 22.1% y/y versus the expectation of 1.6% m/m and 21.5% y/y.
The British pound traded with a firm undertone in Asia and Europe. Although cable retreated to 1.4932 in European morning, sterling subsequently rebounded and rose to 1.5012 in European mid-day due to the generally supportive response to the U.K. budget from rating agencies together with cross-buying in pound as eur/gbp fell to a fresh one year low of 0.8180 before rebounding strongly. Cable then retreated from said high fell to as low as 1.4916 in NY afternoon.
Economic data to be released on Friday include: New Zealand Trade balance , Japan CPI, U.S. PCE , GDP and 2010 G8 / G20 Summit.
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Hi,
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 25/06/2010 21:39 GMT
Euro rebounds strongly as U.S. stocks and commodities advance
Euro pared its initial losses and rose on Friday as gains in U.S. stocks and crude oil boosted risk appetite while commodity-linked currencies also advanced against the dollar.
Euro briefly rose to 1.2352 in European morning but the single currency tumbled to 1.2254 in European mid-day. The pair, however, managed to rebound from there and despite euro's retreat to 1.2381 after the weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP data, the single currency later rallied to an intra-day high of 1.2396 in NY mid-day on recovery in U.S. stocks and crude oil. S&P 500 index ended the day up by 0.29% while NASDAQ also closed up by 0.27%. Cross-buying in euro also lifted price as eur/jpy jumped from 109.59 to 110.90 while eur/chf rebounded strongly from its fresh record low of 1.3456 to 1.3610.
Although the greenback bounced from 89.42 to 89.78 against the Japanese yen, the pair retreated from there and resumed recent decline to as low as 89.21 in NY morning after the release of U.S. GDP data, which showed gross domestic economic growth in the first quarter was slower than previously estimated due to business and consumer spending cuts. U.S. final Q1 GDP rose by 2.7 versus economists' forecast of 3.0.
In other news, U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 76.0, the highest since Jan. 2008.
The British pound went through a roller coaster day. Despite edging higher to 1.4974 at European opening, price tumbled to an intra-day low of 1.4855 in thin trading conditions ahead of weekend's G20 summit. However, cable rebounded from there on short-covering and later rallied to 1.5079 in late NY session.
Commodities rose on Friday due to dollar's broad-based weakness and spot gold rose from 1239.60 to 1257.70 while U.S. crude futures rose by $2.35 to $78.86 per barrel, the highest level in seven weeks. Aud/usd also rose to 0.8758 from 0.8596 while nzd/usd jumped to 0.7158 from 0.6995 and usd/cad dropped from 1.0444 to 1.0340.
Investors waited and focused on the G20 Summit over the weekend. Rich countries would figure out how to catch up on their missed aid promises and find new ways to help the world's poorest nations when their own budgets should be squeezed.
Economic data to be released next week include: Japan Retail sales , Germany CPI , U.S. PCE index, Personal income, Personal spending , Midwest manufacturing on Monday, Japan Household spending , Unemployment rate , Industrial prod'n , EU Business climate, Economic sentiment , Consumer Confidence , Canada PPI , U.S. Consumer confidence on Tuesday, Japan Manufacturing PMI , Construction orders , Housing starts , Germany Unemployment rate, U.K. GDP , Current Account, EU HICP , Swiss KOF indicator, U.S. ADP employment, Canada GDP on Wednesday, Japan Tankan capex , Tankan big manufacturing , Swiss PMI, Germany Manufacturing PMI , U.K. Manufacturing PMI , U.S. Jobless claims, ISM manufacturing, Pending home sales, (Canadian market holiday) on Thursday , EU PPI , Employment , U.S. Avg. hourly earnings , Non-farm payrolls ,Factory orders on Friday.
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Supoort, Resistance and Range Forecast by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 28 Jun 2010 06:09GMT
Range Forecast
89.30 / 89.60
Resistance/Support
R: 89.51 / 89.78 / 89.98
S: 89.21 / 88.95 / 88.60
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 28 Jun 2010 06:43GMT
Range Forecast
1.2365 / 1.2395
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2398/1.2417/1.2436
S: 1.2351/1.2319/1.2281
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 28 Jun 2010 06:18GMT
Range Forecast
1.0915 / 1.0945
Resistance/Support
R: 1.0950/1.0985/1.1006
S: 1.0895/1.0881/1.0850
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 28 Jun 2010 06:17GMT
Range Forecast
1.5015 / 1.5065
Resistance/Support
R: 1.5079/1.5126/1.5192
S: 1.5032/1.5012/1.4957
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 28/06/2010 21:26 GMT
Euro tumbles on ECB loan worries
The euro weakened across the board on Monday as investors were worried over the funding tensions in Europe as a lending facility provided by ECB would expire this week.
The single currency remained under immense selling pressure on Monday as banks must repay 442 billion euros to the ECB on this coming Thursday and investors were worried this would create a potential liquidity shortfall in the European financial system. In addition, traders bought the Swiss franc aggressively after SNB's Danthine said that deflationary risks had disappeared and Swiss exports had proven to be robust despite a stronger currency. Italy's auction of government bonds was met with tepid demand on Monday and this also added further pressure on euro.
Although the single currency edged higher to 1.2398 in Asian morning following Friday's rally to 1.2396 in New York trading, euro retreated sharply from there and remained under pressure in Europe and then U.S. session. Intra-day decline picked up more downward momentum after Richmond Fed President Jeffry Lacker said that a solid U.S. economic recovery might soon enable the U.S. Federal Reserve to drop its promise to keep interest rate low for an 'extended period'. The single currency eventually weakened to 1.2265 in NY afternoon. Cross-selling in euro also pressured price as eur/chf tumbled to a fresh lifetime low of 1.3329 and eur/gbp tumbled to 0.8122, the lowest level since November 2008.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback initially edged higher to 89.47 in European morning but retreated from there and fell to 89.06 in NY morning on cross buying of yen vs euro. However, the pair rebounded after Lacker's comments and ended the day at 89.36.
The British pound extended Friday's rise and traded with a firm undertone throughout the day. Despite staging a pullback to 1.5018 in European morning, cable eventually rose to 1.5130 in NY afternoon on Monday. Cable was supported as Barclays said on Friday that the British pound may be attractive due to government's tough stance in improving the nation's finances. BOE's Sentance also said on Monday that Britain's tough budget would not remove the need to start raising interest rate ' now '.
In other news, at the end the G20 summit meeting over the weekend, leaders agreed to cut budget deficits amid the uneven and fragile economic recovery in many countries. The leaders agreed to pursue higher capital requirements for banks once economic recoveries could take hold. US President Obama welcomed the deficit-cutting goal set by the G20 nations.However, market showed little reaction to these comments.
Economic data to be released on Tuesday include :Japan Household spending , Unemployment rate , Industrial prod'n , EU Business climate, Economic sentiment , Consumer Confidence , Canada PPI , U.S. Consumer confidence.