Intraday trading signal - page 11
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Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 30/12/2009 21:40 All times in GMT
Dollar retreats in NY afternoon on profit-taking after early gains
Although the U.S. dollar rose after Chicago PMI hit a four-year high, price retreated across the board in NY afternoon on profit-taking. Dollar index rose 0.1% to 77.888 and up 4.1% in the month, on pace for its best monthly gain since February.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index marked its third-consecutive month of progressively more optimistic business atmosphere for the US Midwest region with a score of 60.0 for December, far above the more pessimistic forecasts of 55.3 as well as November's score of 56.1
Euro staged a rebound in Europe on short-covering after Tuesday's selloff and price hit an intra-day high of 1.4361 before easing. However, with the Chicago PMI report revealing overall strength in U.S. economy and rise in production (new orders and employment were particularly encouraging), the single currency dropped briefly to a low of 1.4273 in NY morning before staging a rebound in NY afternoon. In other news, Euro zone M3 money supply growth showed a surprise fall in Nov while loans to the private sector fell at a less pronounced rate than had been expected.
Cable extended Wednesday's selloff and fell to a 11-week low of 1.5832 in European mid-day due to ongoing worries over the U.K. economy and rising public debt. The decline was also in part due to thin market condition. However, the British pound staged a strong rebound in NY session triggered by active cross-buying in sterling. Eur/gbp posted its biggest decline in more than two months, falling from 0.9055 to as low as 0.8911 and cable reached an intra-day high of 1.6095 in NY afternoon before stabilizing.
The dollar climbed to a three-month high against the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to withdrawing stimulus measures as the economy recovers, pushing bond yields higher. Despite a brief dip to 91.90 in Asia, the pair quickly picked up what it left off on Tuesday and price rallied to intra-day high of 92.77 in NY afternoon before retreating in line with dollar's broad-based softness.
Data to be released on Thursday include U.K. Nationwide house price and U.S. jobless claims. Thursday is a market holiday for both Japan and Germany.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:1.6067
Last Update At31 Dec 2009 04:50 GMT
Although cable's o/n 'cross-inspired' strg rally
to 1.6095 (NY) confirms recent decline has finally
made a low y'day at 1.5832 n marginal gain is like-
ly, o/bot condition shud prevent strg rise in Asia
n reckon 1.6120/30 wud cap upside n yield retreat.
For st trade, sell on next upmove for 1.6070 n
if price drops to 1.6025 1st, buy for 1.6075.
Range Forecast
1.6045 / 1.6080
Resistance/Support
R: 1.6095/1.6122/1.6167
S: 1.6023/1.5982/1.5913
Recent Recommended Trades by AceTrader
******************************************
Update Time: 31 Dec 2009 15:12GMT
DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - +92.90+
Although dlr's intra-day brief drop to 91.90 sug
gests recent strg upmove has made a temporary top
at 92.77 y'day, as long as said sup holds, marginal
gain twd 93.00 is still envisaged but nr term 'loss
of momentum' shud cap price at 93.10/20 today.
Trade fm long side with stop below said sup as
break may risk stronger retracement twd 91.52.
Rate: +92.90+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 92.20
Objective: 92.90
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 93.14/93.55/94.19
Support: 91.88/91.52/91.13
******************************************
Update Time: 31 Dec 2009 10:58GMT
INTRA-DAY EUR/GBP OUTLOOK - +0.8920+
Despite euro's strg rebound fm y'day's 0.8911
low, present retreat fm 0.8958 suggests recovery
has possibly ended there n consolidation with down
side bias wud be seen for re-test of said sup but
break needed to extend decline fm 0.9055 to 0.8889.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv
wud risk stronger retracement to 0.8975/80.
Rate: +0.8920+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 0.8945
Objective: 0.8920
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.8945/0.8958/0.8974
Support: 0.8911/0.8889/0.8852
******************************************
Update Time: 31 Dec 2009 06:49GMT
INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.8993+
A$'s early breach of indicated NY high of 0.8959
together with intra-day resumption of upmove in nzd
suggest upside bias remains for a re-test of this
week's top at 0.8993, abv wud yield further headway
to 0.9015 but reckon 0.9030/35 wud hold.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only
below 0.8902 aborts nr term bullishness on aussie.
Rate: +0.8993+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 0.8960
Objective: 0.8993
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.9024/0.9071/0.9100
Support: 0.8959/0.8902/0.8892
*******************************************
******************************************
Update Time: 31 Dec 2009 15:12GMT
DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - +92.90+
Although dlr's intra-day brief drop to 91.90 sug
gests recent strg upmove has made a temporary top
at 92.77 y'day, as long as said sup holds, marginal
gain twd 93.00 is still envisaged but nr term 'loss
of momentum' shud cap price at 93.10/20 today.
Trade fm long side with stop below said sup as
break may risk stronger retracement twd 91.52.
Rate: +92.90+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 92.20
Objective: 92.90
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 93.14/93.55/94.19
Support: 91.88/91.52/91.13
******************************************
Update Time: 31 Dec 2009 10:58GMT
INTRA-DAY EUR/GBP OUTLOOK - +0.8920+
Despite euro's strg rebound fm y'day's 0.8911
low, present retreat fm 0.8958 suggests recovery
has possibly ended there n consolidation with down
side bias wud be seen for re-test of said sup but
break needed to extend decline fm 0.9055 to 0.8889.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv
wud risk stronger retracement to 0.8975/80.
Rate: +0.8920+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 0.8945
Objective: 0.8920
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.8945/0.8958/0.8974
Support: 0.8911/0.8889/0.8852
******************************************
Update Time: 31 Dec 2009 06:49GMT
INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.8993+
A$'s early breach of indicated NY high of 0.8959
together with intra-day resumption of upmove in nzd
suggest upside bias remains for a re-test of this
week's top at 0.8993, abv wud yield further headway
to 0.9015 but reckon 0.9030/35 wud hold.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only
below 0.8902 aborts nr term bullishness on aussie.
Rate: +0.8993+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 0.8960
Objective: 0.8993
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.9024/0.9071/0.9100
Support: 0.8959/0.8902/0.8892
*******************************************
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:1.6108
Last Update At 04 Jan 2010 23:38 GMT
Cable's sellloff fm 1.6242 to 1.6082 due to act-
ive cross-selling in sterling confirms the upmove
fm last week's low at 1.5832 has ended made a top
there n choppy consolidation is envisaged with mild
downside bias but reckon 1.6060 wud hold fm here.
Stand aside initially n look to buy on further
decline but reckon 1.6195 wud cap upside in Asia.
Range Forecast
1.6085 / 1.6120
Resistance/Support
R: 1.6140/1.6195/1.6242
S: 1.6060/1.5989/1.5925
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:1.6108
Last Update At04 Jan 2010 23:38 GMT
Cable's sellloff fm 1.6242 to 1.6082 due to act-
ive cross-selling in sterling confirms the upmove
fm last week's low at 1.5832 has ended made a top
there n choppy consolidation is envisaged with mild
downside bias but reckon 1.6060 wud hold fm here.
Stand aside initially n look to buy on further
decline but reckon 1.6195 wud cap upside in Asia.
Range Forecast
1.6085 / 1.6120
Resistance/Support
R: 1.6140/1.6195/1.6242
S: 1.6060/1.5989/1.5925
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:1.5988
Last Update At 06 Jan 2010 02:47 GMT
Despite cable's initial resumption of this wk's
decline fm 1.6242 after penetrating y'day's NY low
of 1.5965, present rebound fm 1.5945 signals intra-
day low has been formed n consolidation with upside
bias is seen for 1.6025 but 1.6050/60 wud hold.
Raise long entry for this move n sell cable on
further rise for day trade.
Range Forecast
1.5975 / 1.6005
Resistance/Support
R: 1.6007/1.6027/1.6060
S: 1.5945/1.5913/1.5876
Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 05/01/2010 21:37 All times in GMT
Dollar slips on renewed risk appetite
The greenback declined against a basket of currencies especially versus yen on Tuesday as growing hopes for a global economic recovery encouraged investors to shift funds to riskier assets from the dollar. The dollar index, U.S. currency's performance against six other major currencies, was down 0.4 percent at 77.203.
The single currency rose to intra-day high of 1.4485 at European opening on Tuesday but retreated quickly from there despite solid unemployment data from Germany. The unemployment fell unexpectedly by 3,000 in December (forecast was an increase of 5,000) to 3.421 million. German unemployment rate came in as expected at 8.1%. Euro continued to move lower after the data and price hit intra-day low of 1.4346 in NY afternoon before stabilizing.
Similar to euro, cable bounced briefly to intra-day high of 1.6154 at European opening before tumbling to 1.5989. The weaker-than-expected U.K. PMI was part of the reason for the selloff. The index only rose to 47.1 in December (forecast was 47.4) from 47.0 in November. Cable continued to be soft in NY session in part due to active cross-selling in sterling (eur/gbp rose from 0.8946 to 0.9016 and gbp/jpy fell from 149.15 to 146.16) and price reached an intra-day low of 1.5965 in NY afternoon before staging a minor rebound.
Despite falling sharply to intra-day low of 91.25 against the yen in NY morning due to active buying of yen by Japanese exporters and hedge funds earlier in Asia, the greenback rebounded after the release of mixed U.S. data. U.S. factory orders rose by 1.1% in November (forecast was 0.5%) with upwardly revised 0.8% increase in October, however, U.S. pending homes sales dropped by 16% versus economists' forecast of -2%. In other news, Finance Minister Hiroshida Fujii resigned earlier in today's European session due to health reasons.
Data to be released on Wednesday include Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, U.K PMI service, EU industrial orders, PPI, U.S. ADP unemployment, ISM non-manufacturing.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:1.6028
Last Update At07 Jan 2010 00:54 GMT
Despite rising in tandem with euro at Asian open
ing, as price has retreated fm 1.6060, suggesting
further 'choppy' trading below y'day's high at 1.60
65 wud continue n downside bias is seen for another
pullback to 1.6000 but reckon 1.5973 wud hold.
In view of abv analysis, turn short on recovery,
stop as indicated, abv may risk 1.6100 b4 down.
Range Forecast
1.6015 / 1.6050
Resistance/Support
R: 1.6065/1.6084/1.6126
S: 1.5973/1.5938/1.5913