The Legend of The Gambler - page 22
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hooooooo .... glad you alive ( saw those dead soldiers - thought you'r MAI
... whre's Wolander?
^ Despite shooting my own foot at every opportunity, "The Gambler" is still in the game and surviving.
I do need to restock on my snake oil inventory. Ole Kenny still kicking!
There are definitely lots of wasted soldiers on the battlefield this month. I almost took the ride down myself, but I held onto my cards and it turned on the river.
/turn up the music
A little off the topic of forex, but I'm starting to look at oil as a long term investment like an retirement account. The price of Crude is around $35. And I say the lowest it can go is probably around $25. So it would be a very smart position to buy oil when it is near $30, and temporarily take a $5 hit if it goes there. Over the next 20-30 years, it is bound to go up, and you are bound to make some serious returns if you consistently buy into it per month.
For long term investment, I would look into oil ETFs instead of using the futures because futures are on monthly contracts and you would need to roll those from time to time.
A little off the topic of forex, but I'm starting to look at oil as a long term investment like an retirement account. The price of Crude is around $35. And I say the lowest it can go is probably around $25. So it would be a very smart position to buy oil when it is near $30, and temporarily take a $5 hit if it goes there. Over the next 20-30 years, it is bound to go up, and you are bound to make some serious returns if you consistently buy into it per month. For long term investment, I would look into oil ETFs instead of using the futures because futures are on monthly contracts and you would need to roll those from time to time.
OK, so I took some time to do a little more research into oil ETFs. It was very educational because I thought that OIL and USO would be the preferable play. However, it looks like the contango issue and credit risk issue make these unfavorable plays.
How Contango Affects Crude Oil ETF's and ETN's (USO, OIL, DBO) ~ market folly
Don't Buy USO (Buy USL Instead) - Yahoo! Finance
So maybe USL is the right choice. And the lesson is to do a little research if you want to invest in any kind of trading vehicle.
I closed and took a -$2K hit on my Long Euro position that was suppose to be my weekend hedge. It was a terrible mistake in hindsight. And of course, the market did not have a massive downtrend like it should, I also took a hit on that. This market is just not trending like 2008.
For February, I have not made any money because of my fiddling and mistakes. I should be up a nice $2-3K easily by now. Very poor performance indeed.
BTW, the oil long term play is not at the optimal moment, we will wait for OPEC to cut production and for the supply/demand numbers to become more balanced. Currently, there is way too much supply and not enough demand. However, I'm confident this can be a lucrative play if you have the time to wait it out. Also the fact that these ETF's all have a cost associated with time.
To all the losing traders out there (or the traders who are on a losing streak, myself included), don't feel so bad. It seems like all of the gurus are always making money consistently, and all of them like to toot their own horns. Here is a website who tracks professional gurus who does this for a living in the equities markets.
CXOAG Guru Grades
As you can see, the majority of these guys are as good as a flip of the coin. And these guys have way more resources and connections than the average joes like most of us. So I don't feel as bad when I make some losing trades.
With that said, it also allows us to reevaluate if we should even be in this business of trading. If you think it is going to be very easy like some of the demo jockey charts with 2 million is 1 year backtests, then you are just dreaming. This is a long road with many bumps along the way. Most newbies don't even realize that you need to make about 2 million dollars to becomes a millionaire, Uncle Sam wants his piece of the pie.
OK, now this market is just playing with me.
I closed my hedge Euro Long for a huge loss previously, and now it spikes up to where it would have actually made money. It was an epic move today.
It's part of Trading
It's part of trading. One of the hardest things to learn and accept. The sooner you get past it and on the next trade the better. Just a feeling that I get from reading this is that you are internalizing your loses a bit much. I have found that accepting that is was just a trade and moving on has made a very big difference in my trading.
I enjoy reading your thread and wish you the best!
BTW, I'm seeing stronger directional moves across the board, so let's hope it is going to lead to sustainable trends soon. I've managed to claw some profits this month to date on my main account. I'm still in drawdown on my smaller accounts, and will most likely finish in the red for those smaller accounts. I still have a week to go.
As for my main account, I'm running approximately +4% for the month of February despite taking a -4% hit earlier for the stupid weekend hedge trade on Euro. I also made a big bet on the double bottom breakout to the down side on the Euro last week, which did not sustain...actually it snapped right back in my face, and I had to eat a -$4K loss which is roughly -8%. If that bet had gone trend down, I would have been hitting the Home Run trade and easily gain to the tune of +20% to +30% like in January. But it wasn't the case. February has been a difficult month for my style.
So I'm still hitting singles and bunting. Moving the runners along. Waiting for the hanging breaking ball or the fastball down the middle for my Home Run swing.
^ Don't worry about me, I have a large supply of snake oil in my inventory to calm my nerves. Trust me, I understand that losing trades are the cost of doing business, but it still sucks to go into drawdown. Especially when those drawdowns are a direct result of my own fumblings.
I'm not a zen guru that has reached trading nirvana (it is only a myth). There will be many curses, and inflections of self doubt with a pinch of greed and fear. But that's how the Legend of the Gambler is made...one battle at a time, some setbacks along the way, and hopefully climbing that seemly unscalable mountain...without falling off the cliff.
When you are The Gambler like I am, you understand and accept the fact that the cliff is only a few bad moves away.
And thank you for the well wishes, much appreciated.