The Legend of The Gambler - page 41

 

I love listening to music when trading to pass the time. Personally, I like to listen to positive or inspirational music. I don't use the music to execute my trades... I don't think any really fast paced songs would be helpful either. Trading is about patience and discipline. Go in when your plan tells you to go in, and get out when it tells you to get out.

Right now, I'm listening to Under Pressure - Queen/David Bowe. Great song, it sums up life pretty well.

 
Kenny Rogers:
GBPUSD

SELL @ 1.6709

SL @ 1.6850

TP @ 1.6509

Current Price @ 1.6715

Current P/L @ -6 (not including spread)

GBPUSD

SOLD @ 1.6709

OUT @ 1.6500 <---I forgot to set my TP, so I had to exit manually.

Final P/L @ $209 (including spread)

 
Jenofe:
Music n trading seems to have a lot in common

chart patterns could be a chorus of a song

rythm could help you follow the trend

tone could determine it strength

a bang could help you pull the trigger

pips droping in with a + very melodious

but music notes is NOT METRICS

vs

there are plenty of black and white LONG key in charts too -- like the piano keys

--- do you trade on passing the R/S lines -- i.e. wait for the whole day -- to see the trend passing those lines

 

please show us your MUSICAL accompanied dig that you will make successful 10 to 20 pip with your trading,

so we know how to ENTER (into a transaction) --- 3D chatware called IMVU (dot com) is pretty cool too

 

I've finished my data analysis for my own trading on GBPUSD. I went back to the start of 2009, and manually evaluated each trade visually. It is only 8 months data, but you can go farther back if you want.

I'm using a dynamic trailing stop that is adjusted up or down once per day. I wrote down the maximum profit from entry, and also the maximum loss when it hits the stop. This is the main part of my analysis because I have other analysis I'm looking at pullback, but that's another project I need to do later.

So after I analyzed all of the trade into a spreadsheet, I pick a set TP for the GBPUSD that will give me decent profit. I don't want to try to hit the top profit because I don't want to curve fit. The greedy pig gets slaughtered.

I'm sure many people here can benefit from this kind of analysis on their own trading system. For GBPUSD, I've settled on a 200 pip TP. I want to get a good hit rate instead of going for 500 pip trade every once in awhile. Even though the 500 pip trade strategy might be overall more profitable. One cannot predict with certainly how the market is going to move, we just need to study the statistics, and be on the right side of those numbers. Put it into our plan, and execute the game plan. Losses are just part of the statistics...for a gameplan of 60% winners, you will need 40% losers to achieve the target...so that's how you justify the losers in your mind to stay disciplined.

Now I need to repeat the same process for 7 other currencies that I want to trade with the same method. It will take some time because I like doing it by hand, it gives me face time with each trade...and build confidence as I watch each trade unfold. Many people just put it into a backtester, and it will spit out a number, but it won't build any kind of confidence in how to take the losers and if the losers are of the same characteristics of the past if you haven't looked at the trade before.

Anyways, I just want to share how I approach data analysis of my strategy (simplified version only). In my other analysis, I'm looking to see if the pullback on the current day or subsequent day of entry can be traded also, and what that TP should be. Hopefully, someone else can take it and apply it to their own strategy.

 

All of the headlines reads:

The recession is over!!!

LOL. Dream on. The US economy is in major trouble, and even though the stock market has risen dramatically in recent months. It is only a head fake, and we will be heading back down very soon in 2010. The underlying fundamentals for the US economy absolutely sucks, the banks are propped up by the government, and the US housing is still in terrible shape with a new wave of commercial RE bomb going to drop.

Anyways, that's my 2 cents after watching waves and waves of good news from the media, I'm so sick of it because it is like leading sheeps to slaughter. Get ready for the ride down. It's going to get ugly.

 

EURUSD

SELL @ 1.4205

SL @ 1.4260

TP @ 1.4126

Current Price @ 1.4207

Current P/L @ -2 (not including spread)

This is a pullback trade for me.

 

EURUSD

SELL @ 1.4221

SL @ 1.4260

TP @ 1.4162

Current Price @ 1.4223

Current P/L @ -2 (not including spread)

This is basically a cheap cost average of the previous trade with the same SL.

 

The last time I did my pullback / cost average trades, both my trades hit the SL, so hopefully this time it works a little better.

I've completed my analysis for EURUSD last night, and it was not a very good pair this year for my method, it was near breakeven or slightly negative for 2009 to date. Strange, I would have thought EURUSD would be quite profitable because of the small spread. Perhaps, it will require the pullback trade to make it profitable, not sure yet until I do more analysis.

Anyways, let's just stick to the plan and no one will get hurt. Put the statistic on your side.

The beauty of having a TP and SL is that I can walk away from my trading station, and come back in a few hours after the NY market close. The market will go where it needs to go. If it hits my TP, that would be fantastic. If it hits my SL, that would suck, but with every loss...it contributes and fills the statistics for the losers and winners. And as long as the odds are on my side, then I should be OK. It's like a casino, and I want to be the house. At this point, my job is to not hope for winners or losers. My job is to take every trade when it fits the entry criteria, enter the SL and TP, adjust the SL if necessary, and then walk away. Then do it again and again, without deviating from my MM or impulse trade. Then I will master the art of discipline.

 
Kenny Rogers:
EURUSD

SELL @ 1.4205

SL @ 1.4260

TP @ 1.4126

Current Price @ 1.4207

Current P/L @ -2 (not including spread)

This is a pullback trade for me.

EURUSD

SELL @ 1.4205

Out @ 1.4126

Final P/L @ $79 (including spread)

Kenny Rogers:
EURUSD

SELL @ 1.4221

SL @ 1.4260

TP @ 1.4162

Current Price @ 1.4223

Current P/L @ -2 (not including spread)

This is basically a cheap cost average of the previous trade with the same SL.

EURUSD

SELL @ 1.4221

Out @ 1.4162

Final P/L @ $59 (including spread)

Both trades hit TP during a quick spike down on the price action. No reasons why it happened, the market just went where it wanted to go. It's crazy like that. LOL. Now I'm out on both trades. Not bad this time around.