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Good system
Thanks KaMpeR. Your system looks very good. I will trade it live, but will include resistances and supports from my setups that I use now. I suggest everyone to identify those levels manually. This should help identify SL and TP levels. Fibs and pivots would help. Also this setup on GBPJPY looks amazing.
About MP hedging trade - it's spam. Do not trade that! To have no SL stops and go for 10 pips? That's insane my back tests showed, that accouts will be margin called. I've seen lots of "particular time" trading setups. And if these work, just for some time. If you make $1000 per week, so what is the risk? Nowadays market moves 500 pips per week. So risk would be $50000???
MP --- we make great profits and you call it SPAM ?
we seem to have a large amount of peples who do just THAT --- hedge (actually counter trade as a TRUE hedge is a different situation) that both makes profit when a trade reverses, be it time of day or normal reversal, or to hold margin steady --- the ONLY criteria being good money management with absolutely NO overextension of funds or margin. Heck, in almost any market, but its best in a running one, you can play long and short the 5 minute channel and have both taken out within 20 minutes with minimal drawdowns because of the law of channels.
Drawdown is NOT a dirty word, but simply part of trading ---- only in "non-hedging" brokers are you required to finish one trade so as to do a counter trade, which is why most decent traders now trade out of europe and to heck with the USA rules.
how often do you trade the 15 minute, only to find yourself now in a time of day or normal retracement, understand that this will be a fairly long one and UNDERSTAND that your other trade, now in drawdown, is still solid gold for later in the day ?
simply take the counter trade, observe your indicators and support areas and you find you will end up doubling your profit IF YOU ARE SENSIBLE ABOUT WHAT YOU ASK FOR -- other words, trade both offensively AND defensively.
"time of day" trades has been taught for 5 years or so, and its still chugging right along, being used by every decent trader in the WORLD --- it works because thats what is set up to work, and while there are little tricks we learn that "signal" us as to direction changes comes those times, the overwhelming majority of trades reverse at VERY definite times of the 24 hour day, and you saying neigh does not alter the truth one whit !
on decent days I pull in 600 pips, with a basement of 350 and a high of 1200 or more (darn good days they have to be, i admit) and I do it day after day after day after day because I use my head, understand what is a good or bad trade, and stick to my plans and knowledge.
Many people have insulted, demanded my head or rode me out of town on a rail, and yet many people have learned to actually BE TRADERS using the ideas I put forth --- they may alter some indicators to suit their OWN style of trading but NO ONE throws away the channels and the support and resistance overlays we use, and NO ONE ignores all the other s+r points on their charts.
SPAM --- not so my friend, and you cant possibly backtest reliably because backtesting does not take into account slippage, broker "nasties" or all the s+r points one can use ---- backtesting, while taught to newbs as a "God inspired solution" is really of little worth in the real world as are 20 pip stoplosses on the 15 min chart --- BOTH horrible lies !
enjoy and trade well
mp
About MP hedging trade - it's spam. Do not trade that! To have no SL stops and go for 10 pips? That's insane my back tests showed, that accouts will be margin called. I've seen lots of "particular time" trading setups. And if these work, just for some time. If you make $1000 per week, so what is the risk? Nowadays market moves 500 pips per week. So risk would be $50000???
mp614
please illustrate with diagram
I like 30M chart
== as the short duration, you might have a lot of market condition to set the TABLE right for you
and list out drawback (cons)
e.g. one breakout bar within 10 minute, 30 to 35 pip -- could be bad for this method
if the candle (30M) is just 10 to 17 pip, no way could could scalp
SL too high is bad, max loss of 10pip if you set B and S with direction pointing each other
so it is very professional , with high accuracy and precision with what you do
-- could send me PM, I could give you image upload site IF you don't wanna to discuss it in public, as the next method I try, I got nothing to watch for , only give a glimpse to the chart every few hours ---
purple line does seem to redraw during the day (i.e. changing)
and I got indicator (could send you SC, that predict GU and UJ rebound levels, about 80% very correct -- and do not repaint much , only move for about 5 to 15 pip if something big occur , but Now I trade with AUD or CAD related, feel comfortable with how they move steadily )
and it seems to highly related to GBPUSD latest quick volatility movement, other currency pair may not able to adopt this methodology well ( I only understand 30% -- as I do have that auto channel indicator )
well, the 30 min chart is certainly not one used by many scalpers I know, but aside from the time it takes and its drawdowns on the way, certainly a very viable trading timeframe, delivering faster than an H1 trade and certainly MUCH faster than H4.
for illustrative purposes, its far from the best in describing what i spoke of as so much activity is WITHIN each candle, but that information is out for all to see on the on the one or 5 minute.
Ive cut out most of the "stuff" I use to follow or anticipate the market, but when the price topped at the purple line, indicators and s+r pointed down to the bottom and as you can see, its gonna make it for sure --- just that it stopped for a while at the local pub for a few drinks, and wavered about until it found the right direction down because some of the lower timeframes got into the act and wanted to go up for a while
The WHITE triple downhill lines are the 30 minute channel --- nothing more than past and predicted support and resistance lines which invariably tell you where things will go in the future
as you can see, once we stopped our straight run down, we got into drawdowns and possible SL kills --- I dont bother because i can PLAINLY SEE the price is going where I want, and during those momentary uphill flights of price, I simply TRADE LONG which both balances any margin demands but more importantly, adds to my profit since one is losing while the other is gaining exactly the same amount !
once I hit TP on the long, the short is now free and clear to continue down, decreasing the drawdown rapidly and going back into profit.
on this particular 30 minute move (I rarely play the 30 except for an "overnite" trade where I sleep thru whats happening, I had to have played all the long side moves while holding the short, and since i played them on shorter timeframes, there were a whole lot more of them
dont trust me -- just watch what she does !
enjoy and trade well
mp
mp614
please illustrate with diagram
I like 30M chart
== as the short duration, you might have a lot of market condition to set the TABLE right for you
and list out drawback (cons)
e.g. one breakout bar within 10 minute, 30 to 35 pip -- could be bad for this method
if the candle (30M) is just 10 to 17 pip, no way could could scalp
SL too high is bad, max loss of 10pip if you set B and S with direction pointing each other
so it is very professional , with high accuracy and precision with what you doMP Hedging answer
Dear MP,
you take it too serious. Anyway if you look at FX market from aside, you can suggest such a setups. If you trade live for a long time, you see that trades without or with huge SL works 90% of a time or even 95%. But those 10%-5% will burn your account.
Hedging while defending a losing trade may be an option. But it already shows that setup is bad if you have to defend a loser. You have to close losers fast. Forex is like poker - odds, odds, odds. You cannot win 100% with AA, but you will win at least 80% and that's more then enough.
Do you know what back testing system I use? And slippage can affect overall profit just in negative way. So if I test without slippage I give even better chances for a system to succeed. And I do not believe in such things like broker spikes, SL take outs, etc. I trade with different brokers and I also trade with other traders, and prices vary just 1-2 pips.. And I had many profitable trades when my SL wasn't touched just by 1 pip.
This system might be useful, but not in such a way as it was posted at the begining. Maybe we should try to hedge at a median of a channel, that would increase odds, and we could put SL at channel breakouts. But then it becomes not so simple.
I know lots of live full time traders. None of them trades such a setups. And most of them go for 10-50 pips per day. If you make thousands of pips, so you are richer then Soros and all other guys. That's great and I'm happy for you.
And you can hedge in Europe brokers
.
Just my thoughts which might be wrong. And my 0.0001 cent.
Don't take it personal.
my 2 cents
agree totally, this is how we blew it-- by following the worst example of TRADER In the NEWS (ING and the french bank on futures)
put all the lost aside, and lie to ourself profits has been pocketed
however, if this guy only do trade reasonably in same currency (per week), then he could survive with a big damage of several hundred USD only -- something for us to think about
MP -- seems to work for me
Dear MP,
you take it too serious. Anyway if you look at FX market from aside, you can suggest such a setups. If you trade live for a long time, you see that trades without or with huge SL works 90% of a time or even 95%. But those 10%-5% will burn your account.
You are correct in that I take it VERY seriously, having been maligned for so long and now seeing SO MANY of the very people who maligned me, now using what I put forth and profiting like never before ---- I happen NOT to use SL's, which works for me since Im not letting a trade, which OBVIOUSLY will not hit its TP for a month or so, if ever, continue to run ---- in that situation, which is almost as rare as hens teeth, i will slowly fade out of the loser by using the counter trade winnings ----- if its a one lot trade, I will fade 0.01 lot per day (or more) because Ive used the counter trade and doubled the lot size, creating MORE profit than the loss.
Hedging while defending a losing trade may be an option. But it already shows that setup is bad if you have to defend a loser. You have to close losers fast. Forex is like poker - odds, odds, odds. You cannot win 100% with AA, but you will win at least 80% and that's more then enough.
Do you know what back testing system I use? And slippage can affect overall profit just in negative way. So if I test without slippage I give even better chances for a system to succeed. And I do not believe in such things like broker spikes, SL take outs, etc. I trade with different brokers and I also trade with other traders, and prices vary just 1-2 pips.. And I had many profitable trades when my SL wasn't touched just by 1 pip.
Last time i looked, the object of any trading of any instrument was to make a profit, not have a philosophy class --- if a trade goes bad there can be multiple reasons for it to happen including "driver error" or plain stupidity. What I do is to LOOK at the trade and see if I can profit from it or not, NOT whether its moving away from me on a temporary basis, which causes me to kill the trade and LOOSE MONEY --- Im a winner and NOT a loser and I will not give away a trade simply because its not doing what i wanted or expected in the next 10 minutes.
The easiest way to wipe out an account is to bail when you should hold or to give your broker a "too tight" SL, so they can have fun!
To NOT believe is to live in a fairyland that should not be anywhere near forex trading, simply because its a fact of life --- what may not happen to you personally does not negate that it happens to a whole lot of others, and with a regularity that is not surprising.
Perhaps "hedging" should be replaced by the word "counter trade" as i simply take advantage of the upside and downside movement that occurs during a normal trading day of 24 hours. With the standard manner of reversing the direction of the trade, depending on what country were in, you must understand that profits from longs are taken and reversed as shorts, especially with the euro community ---- if it went up in the USA, you will find often it goes DOWN in europe, as the traders take their held trades, take profits and head for the short side --- its the way people trade longer than scalps when they really want to make money !
"hedging to defend a loser" must be analyzed in its own situation --- if one takes a trade early because you will not be around to take it in 12 hours is far different than "making a bad trade" --- counter trading a 15 or 30 minute chart, with its inevitable drawdowns (even during a run) with a counter trade to the original direction, while considered "hedging", is simply taking advantage of price direction for the moment AND if one hedges a decision that turns out incorrectly for a short period of time BUT THAT ONE KNOWS WILL SOON BECOME GOOD AGAIN, what is the harm if your margin is never in danger. Yes, there are other ways of doing it, but I choose to do it this way and I have NO SCARS to show for it over the years.
To believe that forex is based on ODDS not only goes against the professional market and its members but raises the question of HOW on earth can a TP be completely and accurately predicted, and then hit, by a simple human being with no knowledge of ODDS at all, such as myself and students. I believe you think of ODDS because you have not yet reconciled the price movement which appears random to your thinking, but is HIGHLY LOGICAL once you understand how trading is done and i put forth, yet again, HOW CAN YOU HIT A TP THAT WAS PREDICTED HOURS AGO if the market is random or based on ODDS ?
PERSONALLY, I firmly believe you havent grasped what is happening with price movement that happens before you daily, and without that knowledge it will ALWAYS look random and ODDS driven.
This system might be useful, but not in such a way as it was posted at the begining. Maybe we should try to hedge at a median of a channel, that would increase odds, and we could put SL at channel breakouts. But then it becomes not so simple.
While true "hedging" might work well at the midpoint, because of the increased up and downside volitility, its also the most dangerous place to trade under normal conditions --- normally I would move to another currency that IS NOT at the midpoint, which makes life a whole lot easier and putting SL's at breakout points is also wrong, as invariably the price will move past a breakout point, and then reverse back up --- a "bounce" off the channel edges is not a reality most of the time, as the price always dips below (or above) and THEN bounces (assuming its going to bounce). Its going past the channel is based on some simple facts --- one cannot stop a freight train immediately on a dime, traders are taking profits AND setting up shorts at the same time, which (setting the shorts) raises prices for a very short time as they sell their margined short into the glut of fools who are still buying, looking for the upside to continue.
I know lots of live full time traders. None of them trades such a setups. And most of them go for 10-50 pips per day. If you make thousands of pips, so you are richer then Soros and all other guys. That's great and I'm happy for you.
If they dont trade my setups NOW, they will in the FUTURE, you can bet on that !
Let me not say anything negative about those making 50 pips a day, because theyre starting and working to improve, but I have REPEATEDLY shown my daily trading statements and I make no claims that I have not backed up (and yes, every year sees an increase in daily pippage --- when i started dispensing this information, it was 350 a day (on average) and now its up to 400 - 600 as a "normal" with the 1200 to 2000 happening much more rarely, of course, but it DOES happen in a good market thats running !
Richer than Soros (actually, he hasnt done a whole lot lately and is really remembered for his bank of england call and pressure years ago) --- youll have to ask my accountant !
And you can hedge in Europe brokers
.
thats why i use an english and russian broker and liquidity providers.
Just my thoughts which might be wrong. And my 0.0001 cent.
NO methodologies can be wrong if it works for you, but some thoughts fall far short of proof. With my history of wins (i once did, if i remember correctly) 400 consecutive trades that were all perfect, for some site out there that couldnt believe what I claimed --- I stopped because I simply got tired of "proving" myself every day and the money was far more satisfying !
Don't take it personal.Not personally, but professionally --- I dont mind "doubters" because i can readilly prove what i say and make "believers" out of them --- I dont like those who simply stand pat on their "thoughts" while the proof revolves in front of them, year after year after year !
enjoy and trade well
mp
forex is just like playing soccer with the regional team pro -- you can't or you won't dare to win, until they pass the ball to another team -- your forecasting exercise is just become more simple and easy
OK, this is my last reply to MP, as one guy advice me to ignore. Thanks to him, I can't pm, as I haven't posted 10 posts. Thanks again. And newbies, please be careful trading with MP. I post this because I'm afraid that somebody will misunderstand MP's statements.
I felt even mad the he stated this - "To believe that forex is based on ODDS not only goes against the professional market...". These words show that MP doesn't understant what he is posting and what he is doing. He even doesn't understand what does the word "odds" mean. He says - "odds driven" market and then he says that such market is random. That is nonsense. If market is driven by odds then it's not random
. Simple. In one post MP said that you cannot hedge in Europe, then he says that he uses Europe brokers as he can hedge there. Also there's lots of mismathes in MP's post but I'm not for that here. I want to explain most important thing that all new traders should understand:
You have to see what chances (odds) gives your setup on every trade. If it's more then 50% then it's a good setup. And before taking a trade you should think - what are the odds for me to win? If positive and it meets your plan then go for it. If not - wait. To wait is the hardest part. Patience and discipline. As one great trader said on his interview "most of the setups are profitable", the biggest problem is with psychology. And again - if you see a trade which gives you good odds, go for it. If you lose this time it doesn't mean anything, if odds are on your side, then you'll have more profitable trades then losing one's during longer period of time.
And MP, please post, or PM me your live account statement that proves your consistent profit of at least 50 pips per day. 300 pips per day would make me shamefaced. With such a prove I would make sure to meet you in real live and then we would talk about the terms of how you could manage huge real account.
MP -- youre already using part of it
looks to me, even though those on TSD got me banned for a while, youre already using a lot of what i taught, at least to the support and resistance and the channels. Unfortunately, since you do not have the other channels, you have given away half your advantage.
i guess it would be easier to swallow, seeing as how i put my thoughts out for everyone to use, if i had been treated a bit better by many but that is past and a lot of peeps are finding profits using what i put forth, such as yourself. Might be nice if the hecklers (and you were in there a bit) apologized and thanked me, but the nature of a heckler is not to admit that someone actually knows more than they do and of course NEVER APOLOGIZE because that makes you too human !
volitility can be a pain on the 30 min chart, since SO MUCH can happen before you hit your TP, but if your chart says xxxxxxxx, then that is where the price will go, cause it has no choice.
when scalping, volitility is your bosum buddy because it gets you to your TP quickly and now youre off in another direction -- it keeps the blood flowing and the interest up and during a day like that I cannot believe that 5 hours have gone by so fast.
support is support and resistance is resistance and if the chart says youre going there, slow or fast you will get there depending on the volitility --- the only thing needed is your MIND --- you have to picture what is happening and NOT let SL's drive away a good trade that for the next 5 minutes will be going in the wrong direction because of the nature of profit taking and setting up for the next trade used by the pros.
SL's rob more people of solid gains than anything else there is, and while my advice is certainly not for everyone (and DEFINITELY not for those who are underfunded), it works for me and a large number of very decent traders around the world, because they understand how the market moves and why a short suddenly goes long, only to return to being a short 15 mins later, and they know to hold the position even when its moving away from them.
FEAR is the overriding factor in bailing a good trade, and that fear can be "experienced away" over time --- I teach that the fear is real, but also how to get rid of the fear thru EXPERIENCE, cause you cant trade worth a diddle if you havent got it, and only one thing can produce it --- time and patience which lead to profits.
enjoy and trade well
mp
I could do similar template with a picture like this - 30M
but I think I need some square or triangle to understand your method
does volatility matter ?
$gbpusd got very huge volatility these day
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