Join the Dots. - page 53
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Can I just say thanks to MP and Kamper, my eyes have seen the light
Kamper,
I've looked at your system for the first few pages in this thread. Looks rather promising. Do you still use this method? I had to add in a few indicators of my own to look for an exit strategy. I'm still messing with it, but I think I may have found a few solutions of my own.
Since it is the weekend, I haven't had the opportunity to try this in a live setting, but I will tomorrow. I've really only found 3-4 really promising strategies that fit my style of trading over the last few weeks, and this is one of them. Perhaps I'll read the rest of this thread, but it seems rather long with alot of impertinent information from other users. It would've been nice to have all the details of your system consolidated in this thread without it straying off topic so much. For the reader (me), thats when the boredom sets in and I have to ask myself if I really want to read all of the filler to get to the meat.
I have stumbled upon one of my own techniques, but without being able to really sit down and test it out and work all the bugs out of it, I fear I'm not ready to share it yet. Once I do, I will post it up outside of this thread. If it is good enough, perhaps someone may even feel compelled to code it. If your system ends up working out for me, you'll be one of the first people to know about it. Thanks.
Later!
What do you know?!!! I made $11.02 on the H1 UJ last night with this system. So far so good! Woo hoo!
Kamper,
I've looked at your system for the first few pages in this thread. Looks rather promising. Do you still use this method? I had to add in a few indicators of my own to look for an exit strategy. I'm still messing with it, but I think I may have found a few solutions of my own.
Since it is the weekend, I haven't had the opportunity to try this in a live setting, but I will tomorrow. I've really only found 3-4 really promising strategies that fit my style of trading over the last few weeks, and this is one of them. Perhaps I'll read the rest of this thread, but it seems rather long with alot of impertinent information from other users. It would've been nice to have all the details of your system consolidated in this thread without it straying off topic so much. For the reader (me), thats when the boredom sets in and I have to ask myself if I really want to read all of the filler to get to the meat.
I have stumbled upon one of my own techniques, but without being able to really sit down and test it out and work all the bugs out of it, I fear I'm not ready to share it yet. Once I do, I will post it up outside of this thread. If it is good enough, perhaps someone may even feel compelled to code it. If your system ends up working out for me, you'll be one of the first people to know about it. Thanks.
Later!Hi JD
Thanks for the kind words and my apologies for the thread, yup it has gotten a little verbose of late, but there again, if it weren't for all the extra garbage that we have discussed, we would not have the solution that we have today.
As for sharing your code, not necessary, but I'd be truly honoured if you did, thank you.
Cheers
Wayne
What do you know?!!! I made $11.02 on the H1 UJ last night with this system. So far so good! Woo hoo!
LOL, well done, don't forget my commission.
I think you will find that the longer time frames are the safer one's. I know that there are people that are trading this on M30. I know that I am not brave enough to do that, even H1 makes me crazy.
I am happy to stick to H4 and occasionally I take a look at the D1 charts, but damn they are really slow with very very few trades, However, they can be very profitable managed correctly.
Cheers
Wayne
MP6140 - Question for You
MP I've really enjoyed your posts here and have learned a lot. I've been looking for a system that I can trade manually and I think Kamper's Join the Dots is it. I also wanted to say you have a great sense of humor and have been fun to read.
That being said I have 2 questions about your hedge system. (Everyone else chime in if you have an opinion/answer).
1. You place 2 hedge orders a set number of pips over and under the GU price at 8 pm est. The concern I've seen expressed is over runaway trades and blown accounts. It's my understanding you can enter Buy Stop and Sell Stop orders that will be executed when the price hits those orders. So if you enter this type of order and the price trends up right away the buy order would be triggered but the sell order would still be pending. If the buy order continued up no problem because your buy TP would have been hit. If the price came back down low enough and triggered th sell order then you'd only have one open order to watch. The only flaw here is a quick whipsaw open where the price shoots up and down, triggers both orders but doesn't hit the TP prices.
Wouldn't this approach reduce risk to a certain extent?
2. My second question is you mentioned some additional times when there are trends and reversals during the trading day. Do you also hedge the GU before these trend periods?
Thanks very much. This is a GREAT forum and topic.
Question for both Kamper and MP...
Hi guys. Great system and incredible thread, full of useful information.
Being fairly new to the forum I have been following the "bouncing pip" thread for a few days and trying to understand the logic behind zigzags, but I have to admit it wasn't until I read this very thread that everything came together (well, sort of). I now see the merit of using zigzags, namely to ride some of their legs (especially in the direction of the trend).
That said, when trying to put the system in practice (typically in the H4 timeframe) I have realized that I sometimes find myself wanting to enter trades based on this very logic of jumping into a leg of the zigzag going with the trend (and always keeping an eye on the higher time frames!) but the indicators won't "let me", so to speak. I think this is simply a consequence of the fact that they lag. Trend histo is particularly strict in this respect.
Let me illustrate it with an example: I don't know how to enclose a jpg but since it is recent you can probably take a look at your own charts. Yesterday (May 6th, at about 10:00 pm GMT) I checked the EUR/USD pair. Starting from the daily chart, one can see that it is already in a "local" downtrend that started on April 22th, when it bounced from the ceiling of the weekly channel. This is even easier to see in the H4 chart (and one can even establish a new LRC ), where it is clear that it had a small retrace starting on may 2nd that lasted for three days. The retrace seems to have ended and a zigzag dot has just appeared, so, given the overall downtrend in the H4 chart (which is also starting to appear in the daily) I would have jumped immediately into a short and placed a TP at the previous support, about 1.5360 (I actually did it!). My problem is that Trend Histo is still yellow, because it has obviously been affected by the upwards retrace in the H4 chart and it will take some time of downtrend to recover...
So, my question (to both of you, Kamper and MP) is: how would you handle a case like this? The trend and the retrace the pair had just executed seemed so clear to me that I just jumped in, and it has paid off (16 hours later the pair is about to hit my TP point, 148 pips). Plus I have scalped a little bit in the M5 on the way down.
I know that Kamper has mentioned before that he doesn't enter the trade with Trend Histo in yellow, period, while I suspect MP might have jumped in... Do you have any thoughts on this? I guess my problem is that while indicators give you some peace of mind, I refuse -to some extent- to become a slave of them when they are too slow to react to what my eyes are telling me. On the other hand, taking the trade when every one of them agrees is some insurance policy, but it doesn't happen that often!
Cheers
Kamper,
I still like the original method best on H4. But as these trades can last several days, I'm considering only trading if a signal is in the swap positive direction.
Have you noticed your swaps reducing your profits much on the longer-life trades?
Wasuup Kamp
Hey kamper,
Just thought I would drop u a line & say great job on the thread. Keep up the great work.
Bear-
Hi guys. Great system and incredible thread, full of useful information.
Being fairly new to the forum I have been following the "bouncing pip" thread for a few days and trying to understand the logic behind zigzags, but I have to admit it wasn't until I read this very thread that everything came together (well, sort of). I now see the merit of using zigzags, namely to ride some of their legs (especially in the direction of the trend).
they also make the handiest places in the world to run your fibs from --- just go to the top and bottom ziggie line prior to the trend you wish to work on now, and its as good as it gets !
That said, when trying to put the system in practice (typically in the H4 timeframe) I have realized that I sometimes find myself wanting to enter trades based on this very logic of jumping into a leg of the zigzag going with the trend (and always keeping an eye on the higher time frames!) but the indicators won't "let me", so to speak. I think this is simply a consequence of the fact that they lag. Trend histo is particularly strict in this respect.
Let me illustrate it with an example: I don't know how to enclose a jpg but since it is recent you can probably take a look at your own charts. Yesterday (May 6th, at about 10:00 pm GMT) I checked the EUR/USD pair. Starting from the daily chart, one can see that it is already in a "local" downtrend that started on April 22th, when it bounced from the ceiling of the weekly channel. This is even easier to see in the H4 chart (and one can even establish a new LRC ), where it is clear that it had a small retrace starting on may 2nd that lasted for three days. The retrace seems to have ended and a zigzag dot has just appeared, so, given the overall downtrend in the H4 chart (which is also starting to appear in the daily) I would have jumped immediately into a short and placed a TP at the previous support, about 1.5360 (I actually did it!). My problem is that Trend Histo is still yellow, because it has obviously been affected by the upwards retrace in the H4 chart and it will take some time of downtrend to recover...
So, my question (to both of you, Kamper and MP) is: how would you handle a case like this? The trend and the retrace the pair had just executed seemed so clear to me that I just jumped in, and it has paid off (16 hours later the pair is about to hit my TP point, 148 pips). Plus I have scalped a little bit in the M5 on the way down.
Understand that EACH timeframe is its own little world, and while using SHORTER tf's allow better entries and exits, the LONGER your timeframe, the more reversals you will have to sit out, and watch drawdowns as the price moves away from where you want it to go, but essentially, if the ziggie has topped on a daily chart, and appears to be now moving down, I would venture getting in (as long as youre aware of the drawdowns) is the smart thing to do --- well, i say it because its what i do, including the shorter timeframe flips up and down, while still holding the core trade (the one on the H4 or daily)
one thing ive found on EURUSD and others is that if the H1 or H4 appears to have hit TOP during the afternoon in the USA (say 7pm EDT) it REALLY WONT BEGIN MOVING DOWN UNTIL MIDNITE.
EDIT -- May 27 -- USA -- they are now bringing it back UP to form that dbl top i once referred to, and naturally, they went short having raised the price as high as they could (i believe more upside to be coming due to the nature of how and when the news is being released)
never say "never" and never say "always", but it does this better than 95% of the time, with its only variable being before european news is to be released, where they hold the price (last 2 times has been holding it from falling, and then when news released, we got a short)
had you been using my little ma x-over and macd indicater, especially on the daily or H4, you would have seen the downside divergence telling you that the short was the correct direction.
may i suggest you also use the fibonaccis and the enclosed support and resistance overlay designed by the rumpled one, which automatically gives you the fibs and support and resistance points based on them --- appears to be VERY accurate !
I know that Kamper has mentioned before that he doesn't enter the trade with Trend Histo in yellow, period, while I suspect MP might have jumped in... Do you have any thoughts on this? I guess my problem is that while indicators give you some peace of mind, I refuse -to some extent- to become a slave of them when they are too slow to react to what my eyes are telling me. On the other hand, taking the trade when every one of them agrees is some insurance policy, but it doesn't happen that often!
correct, MP would have taken the trade and probably did and if you try my little indicater, you may have a tad more confidence next time you use an indicator !
also understand that indicators tend to show us WHAT will be happening, especially if you combine them with support and resistance and the LRC's, as you can SEE where the price is heading, and interploate off the indicators once youre used to them. other words, indicaters are like the compass and the chart is the map, and your support and resistance points are the pirate treasure, marked by a big X --- how far from the X you are, whether youre heading in the right direction or not, and even guestimates of how long before you reach the treasure can be gotten ONCE YOU GET USED TO THEM, but not before.
so just watch how they work, and with that experience the next time they work that way, perhaps the price will work the same also !
Cheersthats enough
enjoy and trade well
mp