My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 32
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
GBP/USD weekly outlook: January 13 - 17
The pound pulled away from session lows against the dollar on Friday, to end the day little changed after the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed that the economy added the smallest number of jobs in three years in December.
GBP/USD recovered from session lows of 1.6382 and was last up 0.01% to 1.6480. For the week, the pair gained 0.42%.
Cable is likely to find support at 1.6350 and resistance at 1.6577, the high of December 31.
The dollar turned broadly lower after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in January, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs.
The unemployment rate fell to a five year low of 6.7% from 7% in November, but this was due in part to people dropping out of the labor force. The labor participation rate fell to an almost 35-year low of 62.8%.
Inclement weather in December contributed to the slowdown in hiring, as the construction sector cut 16,000 jobs, the biggest drop in the industry in 20 months.
The unexpectedly weak data tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program again this month. The Fed cited a stronger labor market in its decision to cut its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December, reducing it to USD75 billion-a-month.
read more
USD/JPY dips as lackluster U.S. indicators spark greenback selling
The dollar fell against the yen on Thursday after less-than-stellar U.S. economic indicators sent investors selling the greenback on the notion that monetary policy will remain loose even as the Federal Reserve scales back stimulus programs.
In U.S. trading, USD/JPY was down 0.22% and trading at 104.36, up from a session low of 104.15 and off a high of 104.92.
The pair was expected to test support at 102.86, Monday's low, and resistance at 105.31, Friday's high.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported earlier that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Jan. 11 declined by 2,000 to 326,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 328,000. Analysts had expected U.S. jobless claims to hold steady last week.
A separate report showed that the U.S. consumer price index rose by 0.3% in December, in line with forecasts after holding flat in November.
Core consumer prices, which are stripped of volatile food and energy costs, inched up 0.1% last month, also meeting estimates. Core consumer prices rose 0.2% in November.
The country's year-on-year inflation rate expanded by 1.5%, still below the Fed's 2.0% target, which served as a reminder that as the Federal Reserve scales back its USD75 billion bond-buying program this year, it will do so gradually at best, while monetary tightening remains far off on the horizon.
Fed bond purchases aim to spur recovery by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus keeping the dollar soft as long as they remain in effect.
read more
USD/JPY Outlook January 20-24
USD/JPY showed some sharp movement in both directions last week, but closed the week almost unchanged, at 104.26. The upcoming week has just four releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
Japanese manufacturing numbers enjoyed a good week, as Preliminary Machine Tool Orders posted sharp gains and Core Machinery Orders improved in December. Over in the US, the economy continues to move in the right direction. Unemployment Claims were solid, and Core Retail Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing easily beat their estimates.
* All times are GMT.
source
Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: January 20 - 24
The U.S. dollar rose to one-week highs against the Swiss franc on Friday as a batch of mixed U.S. data indicated that the economic recovery is likely to continue to gain momentum going into this year.
USD/CHF rose as high as 0.9120, the highest since January 9 and settled at 0.9100, 0.60% higher for the day. For the week, the pair gained 1.20%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.9031, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9126, the high of January 8.
Data released on Friday showed that U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in December, in line with expectations, rising for the fifth successive month.
Another report showed that U.S. housing starts fell 9.8% last month, more than the 8.3% decline forecast by analysts. U.S. building permits rose less-than-expected in December, but remained close to November’s five year highs.
Separately, data showed that the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index ticked down to 80.4 in January from 82.5 in December. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.5.
read more
USD/JPY weekly outlook: January 27 - 31
The yen rose to seven-week highs against the dollar on Friday as a weak Chinese manufacturing data and a selloff in emerging markets bolstered investor demand for the traditional safe-haven yen.
USD/JPY fell to 102.00, the weakest since December 6 and was last down 0.91% at 102.33. For the week, the pair lost 1.83%.
The pair is likely to find support at 101.20 and resistance at 103.57, Friday’s high.
Market sentiment was hit by concerns over a slowdown in China after data on Thursday showed that the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index fell to a six-month low in January.
A selloff in emerging markets accelerated on Friday, after the Turkish lira fell to the latest in a series of record lows against the dollar, when a currency market intervention by Turkey’s central bank failed to halt the currency’s steep decline. South Africa’s rand, the Russian ruble and the Argentine peso fell to multi-year lows against the dollar.
Argentina's central bank said Friday it was loosening strict foreign exchange rules, giving up its traditional policy of supporting the currency through interventions.
Emerging market currencies have been hard hit since the Federal Reserve announced plans last month to begin scaling back its asset purchase program. Recent indications that the global economic recovery is deepening has fuelled expectations that some central banks may move to tighten monetary policy this year.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Friday the country’s economy is making significant progress after the bank unveiled a huge stimulus program last April, but added that there was still some way to go before policy would be normalized.
read more
GBP/USD Outlook Feb. 10-14
GBP/USD lost ground but posted a late recovery and was almost unchanged on the week. GBP/USD closed the week at 1.6408. This week’s highlights is the BOE Inflation Report. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
Both the US and UK had mixed releases last week. In the US, Unemployment Claims were solid, but Nonfarm Payrolls slid. PMIs also pointed in both directions. British PMIs remain at high levels but are having trouble meeting the market estimates. Meanwhile, NIESR GDP posted a solid gain, which is indicative of an improving economy.
* All times are GMT
read more
Weekly forex analysis CBP/usd 10/2/2014
GBPUSD broke above 1.6400 resistance, suggesting that the downward movement from 1.6668 had completed, and the pair is now in uptrend from 1.6252. Further rally could be expected, and next target would be at 1.6550 area. Support levels are at 1.6340 and 1.6252, only break below these levels could trigger another fall to 1.6150 zone.
Weekly forex analysis EUR/USD 10/2/2014
EURUSD's rise from 1.3477 extended to as high as 1.3642. The uptrend could be expected to continue, and the target would be at the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart. However, the rise would possibly be consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3892 (Dec 27, 2013 high), as long as the channel resistance holds, one more fall to 1.3400 area is still possible. Support is at 1.3550, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of the downtrend.
the Eur/usd analysis for 11/2/2014
EURUSD's rise from 1.3477 extended to as high as 1.3642. The uptrend could be expected to continue, and the target would be at the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart. However, the rise would possibly be consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3892 (Dec 27, 2013 high), as long as the channel resistance holds, one more fall to 1.3400 area is still possible. Support is at 1.3550, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of the downtrend.
USD/CHF - please share your thoughts!
The disappointing news regarding the USA labor market supported the frank. They are higher than the December numbers 75,000, but well below the average forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6% from 6.7 %, while analysts had forecast 6.7 %.
If the pair keeps falling it will go straight to 0.8940 and if it changes its mind the pair will grow to 0.9040, then to 0.9130.