My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 34
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the daily analysis for forex market 19/3/2014
GBPUSD continued its downward movement from 1.6822, and the fall extended to as low as 1.6545. Further decline could be expected after consolidation, and the target would be at 1.6450 area. Resistance is at 1.6670, followed by the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart, only a clear break above the channel resistance could trigger another rise towards 1.7000.
EURUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.3833 and 1.3966. As long as the trend line support holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.3477. Further rise could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Only a clear break below the trend line support could signal completion of the uptrend.
The interest in the euro, supported by a slight increase in the risk appetite has allowed the single currency to record a profit in trading versus the dollar. Perhaps, it was the result of the reducing the geopolitical tensions, as the main event of the moment is a referendum in the Crimea, provoked an armed clashes, the occurrence of which could result in the outbreak of war in the Central Europe.
There is a quite uncertain euro growth versus the U.S. dollar. The nearest resistance level 1.3925 is suitable for the volume lowering.
For its continued growth, buyers need to break and consolidate above 1.3925. As a result, the breakthrough opens the way for the buyers to the marks: 1.3960 1.4000 1.4050.
USD/JPY Forecast Mar. 31 – Apr. 4
The Japanese yen was looking for a new direction. A busier week awaits the pair with the Tankan indices being the highlights. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
While the Ukraine-Russia crisis faded away once again, fears about Chinese growth helped the yen, countering the Yellen effect. There is an increasing notion that the BOJ may act to counter the effect of the sales tax hike which happens this week, even if the Tokyo Core Inflation finally reached 1% and the Japanese unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. In the US, data was mixed but somewhat leaned to the upside, especially with the encouraging drop in jobless claims. What will take the pair out of range?
* All times are GMT.
source
GBP/USD Outlook Mar 31-Apr 4
GBP/USD reversed directions last week, gaining 140 points. The pair closed the week at 1.6636. This week’s highlights are the PMI releases. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
US Unemployment Claims and GDP looked solid last week, but housing numbers failed to meet expectations. In the UK, CPI continues to lose ground but Retail Sales was very sharp and helped push the pound higher.
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Usd/chf
The Franc has been falling in the past two weeks. After the consumer price inflation release in Germany the franc recovered.
The Franc weakened versus the dollar after the release of a mixed report on the U.S. GDP growth yesterday.
The first support is 0.8800, the next one is 0.8740. The first resistance is 0.8850, the next one is 0.8890.
The Franc is directed to 0.8800. When the price consolidates at the first target, the main goal for sales will become the level 0.8740.
USD/CAD Outlook April 7-11
The Canadian dollar showed some improvement on Friday and gained close to a cent on the week. The pair closed below the 1.10 level, at 1.0969. There are just four events this week, highlighted by Building Permits. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The Canadian dollar got some help on Friday, as Canadian Employment Change had its best showing since October, and the unemployment rate dipped below 6.9%. South of the border, Non-farm Employment Change improved in March but fell short of expectations.
*All times are GMT.
source
USD/JPY Forecast Apr. 7-11
The Japanese yen was on the defensive in the wake of the new fiscal year in Japan. It finally broke above the range. Can USD/JPY continue even higher? The rate decision in Japan takes center stage in a busy week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
More disappointing Japanese data was released: industrial output dropped by 2.3% instead of rising, and also the Tankan Manufacturing Index advanced less than expected. If the Japanese economy wasn’t doing that well before the tax hike, will it suffer even more now? Will this trigger more steps from the BOJ? We might get some answers this week. US Non-Farm Payrolls slightly missed with 192K and this allowed the pair to take profit and fall below 104.
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GBP/USD weekly outlook: April 7 - 11
The pound ended the week lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday after reports showed that all three U.K. PMI surveys for March fell short of expectations, while data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added slightly fewer than expected jobs last month.
GBP/USD touched lows of 1.6556, the weakest since March 26 and was last down 0.14% to 1.6574. For the week, the pair last 0.54%.
Cable is likely to find support at 1.6480 and resistance at 1.6660, Thursday’s high.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.
The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.
The pound remained softer after data on Thursday showed that the U.K. service sector continued to expand steadily in March, albeit at the slowest pace in nine months.
The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers index ticked down to 57.6 last month from 58.2 in February. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 58.1.
The index remained well above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction, and signaled another month of robust growth in the sector, which comprises more than three-quarters of the U.K. economy.
Earlier in the week, reports showed that the manufacturing and construction PMI’s for March also came in below market expectations but still pointed to robust first quarter growth in the U.K.
Elsewhere, sterling was almost unchanged against the euro on Friday, with EUR/USD settling at 0.8268 at the close of trade. The euro fell sharply against the pound on Thursday after the European Central Bank it would use unconventional measures if necessary to stave off the risk of deflation in the euro zone.
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the daily analysis for forex market 10-4-2014
GBPUSD continued its upward movement from 1.6553 and the rise extended to as high as 1.6820. Support is at 1.6725, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.6900 area. Only break below 1.6725 support could signal completion of the uptrend.<span style="color: #000000]AUDUSD remains in uptrend from 0.9205, and the rise extended to as high as 0.9439. Further rise could be expected and next target would be at 0.9500 area. Support is at 0.9370, only break below this level will indicate that consolidation of the uptrend is underway, then pullback to the lower line of the price channel on 4-hour chart could be seen.