10points 3.mq4 - page 301
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There is a few way to tweak up the 10point3 based EA.
1) Reduce the multiplier can drastically deduct the unwanted stack up, ofcourse can survive longer.
2) Widen the pipstep, so we can wait for the major trend change. Try to setup PipStep 50, you will never get kill with the exposure of 0.01 based on 1000 balance
3) Reduce the max trade, when market break certain range of trading, close off all position and restart the bet again.
4) Increase the multiplier, and reduce the SecureProfit to as low as possible. This will allow the following stacking trade increase the bet, when a small retracement happen, we can quickly get out of trouble and start the entire bet again.
1 + 2 has the very similar probability of WIPE OUT your account. Because when you reduce your multiplier, you're simultaneously seeking a way out of your trouble. You could then stack up more and more number of trades in the market, until a real bull run hit in, such as last year's thanks giving, 800pips upward move without 50pips of retracement, game over man! Ofcourse, lowered the multiplier will let you stay in the market longer without margin call immediately, but since you've lowered your multiplier, your latest progressed position will need to have a larger retracement to get all your position average out.
3 + 4 has a better opportunity to survive no matter what. 1st thing 1st, if you have higher MaxTrades means you stay on the same direction longer. Which makes you sounded like a very stuborn mother fcuker
You already at the wrong direction, why keep stacking on the wrong side?! So, reduce the MaxTrades is a very good choice, ofcourse, you may get stopped out prematurely in this case because the dynamic stop loss will always placed that the MaxTrades. Since we're talking about less MaxTrades, ofcourse the better for this EA to get out is to increase the multiplier. Below shows a very clean and sleek example so you know wtf am I trying to say
USDJPYm
1st progression 0.01lot buy 118.00 -0.40
2nd progression 0.03lot buy 117.80 -0.60
3rd progression 0.06lot buy 117.60 -0.00
Current price = 117.60
USDJPYm
1st progression 0.01lot buy 118.00 -0.29
2nd progression 0.03lot buy 117.80 -0.27
3rd progression 0.06lot buy 117.60 +0.66
Current price = 117.71 (We're in profit with 11pips retracement with a 20pipstep!!!)
So, basically we limit the losses by reducing the MaxTrades and increase the odd of getting out of trouble by increasing the multiplier. Hope this help.
Regards
DavidThanks for the clarifying post.
In 1) the multiplier you talk about is the factor by which the lot ('lotsi') is multiplied?
Have you tried to low TP to ensure a large number of small profits in ranging periods?
why don't use this progression:
x1.8
0.1 - 0.1 - 0.18 - 0.32 - 0.59 - 1 - 1.8...
I think is more save than the orinigal progression:
0.1 - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.8 - 1.6 - 3.2 - 6.4
Cheers
thanks
There is a few way to tweak up the 10point3 based EA.
1) Reduce the multiplier can drastically deduct the unwanted stack up, ofcourse can survive longer.
2) Widen the pipstep, so we can wait for the major trend change. Try to setup PipStep 50, you will never get kill with the exposure of 0.01 based on 1000 balance
3) Reduce the max trade, when market break certain range of trading, close off all position and restart the bet again.
4) Increase the multiplier, and reduce the SecureProfit to as low as possible. This will allow the following stacking trade increase the bet, when a small retracement happen, we can quickly get out of trouble and start the entire bet again.
1 + 2 has the very similar probability of WIPE OUT your account. Because when you reduce your multiplier, you're simultaneously seeking a way out of your trouble. You could then stack up more and more number of trades in the market, until a real bull run hit in, such as last year's thanks giving, 800pips upward move without 50pips of retracement, game over man! Ofcourse, lowered the multiplier will let you stay in the market longer without margin call immediately, but since you've lowered your multiplier, your latest progressed position will need to have a larger retracement to get all your position average out.
3 + 4 has a better opportunity to survive no matter what. 1st thing 1st, if you have higher MaxTrades means you stay on the same direction longer. Which makes you sounded like a very stuborn mother fcuker
You already at the wrong direction, why keep stacking on the wrong side?! So, reduce the MaxTrades is a very good choice, ofcourse, you may get stopped out prematurely in this case because the dynamic stop loss will always placed that the MaxTrades. Since we're talking about less MaxTrades, ofcourse the better for this EA to get out is to increase the multiplier. Below shows a very clean and sleek example so you know wtf am I trying to say
USDJPYm
1st progression 0.01lot buy 118.00 -0.40
2nd progression 0.03lot buy 117.80 -0.60
3rd progression 0.06lot buy 117.60 -0.00
Current price = 117.60
USDJPYm
1st progression 0.01lot buy 118.00 -0.29
2nd progression 0.03lot buy 117.80 -0.27
3rd progression 0.06lot buy 117.60 +0.66
Current price = 117.71 (We're in profit with 11pips retracement with a 20pipstep!!!)
So, basically we limit the losses by reducing the MaxTrades and increase the odd of getting out of trouble by increasing the multiplier. Hope this help.
Regards
DavidThanks very much very useful post
Thanks for the clarifying post.
In 1) the multiplier you talk about is the factor by which the lot ('lotsi') is multiplied?
Have you tried to low TP to ensure a large number of small profits in ranging periods?The universal rule of martingale - when low progression, you need higher TP to average out. I give you another example here with low progression of 1.64
USDJPYm
1st progression 0.01lot buy 118.00 -0.40
2nd progression 0.02lot buy 117.80 -0.40
3rd progression 0.03lot buy 117.60 -0.00
Current price = 117.60
USDJPYm
1st progression 0.01lot buy 118.00 -0.29
2nd progression 0.02lot buy 117.80 -0.28
3rd progression 0.03lot buy 117.60 +0.33
Current price = 117.71 (after 11pips of retracement, you're still down by -0.24)
If you have lower TP, ofcourse, you still can get out much earlier, but you're taking the losses here and there. You still need a bigger profit to sustain the drawdown. So, the point is get out of trouble fast and not lossing your money. If we have lower progression, we're staying in trouble and hope for miracle, which is a big retracement, probably a big trend change to get out of trouble.
Regards
David
The universal rule of martingale - when low progression, you need higher TP to average out. I give you another example here with low progression of 1.64
USDJPYm
1st progression 0.01lot buy 118.00 -0.40
2nd progression 0.02lot buy 117.80 -0.40
3rd progression 0.03lot buy 117.60 -0.00
Current price = 117.60
USDJPYm
1st progression 0.01lot buy 118.00 -0.29
2nd progression 0.02lot buy 117.80 -0.28
3rd progression 0.03lot buy 117.60 +0.33
Current price = 117.71 (after 11pips of retracement, you're still down by -0.24)
If you have lower TP, ofcourse, you still can get out much earlier, but you're taking the losses here and there. You still need a bigger profit to sustain the drawdown. So, the point is get out of trouble fast and not lossing your money. If we have lower progression, we're staying in trouble and hope for miracle, which is a big retracement, probably a big trend change to get out of trouble.
Regards
DavidIndeed a lower TP would lead to loss when in MaxTrade situation and a retrace happens to your side: it would close in your small TP, leaving an averaged negative profit.
However lowering TP would increase the absolute number of winning trades. After all, it would wait a lot less to close the trade. But maybe the sum of the many small winning trades would overcome the small loss of the situation above.
My point is to study the viability of an intermediate TP, so that it would gather a lot of small winning trades which would average better than the retraces with the aggregate loss of a small TP.
Indeed a lower TP would lead to loss when in MaxTrade situation and a retrace happens to your side: it would close in your small TP, leaving an averaged negative profit.
However lowering TP would increase the absolute number of winning trades. After all, it would wait a lot less to close the trade. But maybe the sum of the many small winning trades would overcome the small loss of the situation above.
My point is to study the viability of an intermediate TP, so that it would gather a lot of small winning trades which would average better than the retraces with the aggregate loss of a small TP.You're certainly right. Thats the reason why I proposed a higher multiplier in this case. Even if we have a TP of lower then the pipstep 1/4 it will not affect the profit factor. But if you have 1.64 as your multiplier, you need atleast 120% of your pipstep to get to breakeven/mild profit. If you have a stucked position, say staying in the trade for few days... You even lossing big time on the swap too. This has been discovered by John long time ago, when our thread was discussing about 1.64 multiplier.
Regards
David
Regards
David
Bad time for martingale...
10p3
Guys,
I am still running 10p3RMI_v2 on demo for the last 6 months (actually I stopped it this morning, see below why). Settings were mildly agressive (15p pipstep and 31p TP, 5 maxtrades and 1p initial sl). For the last 3 months it was loss, loss, loss. It would make 2k profit, then sl would be hit taking 3,5k loss. So really bad times for martingale. But if we look at market, there is NO surprise at all. US subprime lenders are struggling, us news getting worse and worse each week, carry traders closing their positions, EUR and GBP at all time highs against dollar - all this suggests that there are a lot of uncertainty, tons of scared volatility and multitude of various lenght trends with no retracements. So no wonder at all martingales are struggling in this market. Lets wait for maybe 6 months, maybe more to things get clear and calmer again, eurusd to get back or form a new range, and then it will be 10p3 time. Patience is a virtue.
Guys, I am still running 10p3RMI_v2 on demo for the last 6 months (actually I stopped it this morning, see below why). Settings were mildly agressive (15p pipstep and 31p TP, 5 maxtrades and 1p initial sl). For the last 3 months it was loss, loss, loss. It would make 2k profit, then sl would be hit taking 3,5k loss. So really bad times for martingale. But if we look at market, there is NO surprise at all. US subprime lenders are struggling, us news getting worse and worse each week, carry traders closing their positions, EUR and GBP at all time highs against dollar - all this suggests that there are a lot of uncertainty, tons of scared volatility and multitude of various lenght trends with no retracements. So no wonder at all martingales are struggling in this market. Lets wait for maybe 6 months, maybe more to things get clear and calmer again, eurusd to get back or form a new range, and then it will be 10p3 time. Patience is a virtue.
Would you atributte that loss to the strong trends? Or news? Or both?
That would actually make me very happy, for I only use 10p3 on ranging markets and no big news...
Well, there is always out comes. Am still demoing some old projects, but not sure whether its good enough. Have asked suggestion from party member here in 10p3, seems most of them already lost interest about this beast. I'm maintaining silence at the moment, but am still very optimist about martingale. I do have some old test, but have gone with the old PC that over heated. Forgot to backup the hard drive before throw that thing away. This is the brand new piece of work since July. Seriously, there is no holy grail. But am rather happy to collect some profit before it burst.
i) Look carefully on the forward testing. It started at 11th July, actually it started at 1000 instead of 1188, because of IBFX changed server have removed about 20 trading days from this demo result.
ii) 2 months without major losses. 60+% accuracy compare to traditional 10point3.
iii) Close with equity oftenly instead of waitting for TP to be hit.
iv) MaxTrade=5 to avoid unwanted over exposure
v) Initial lot size maintained at 1% only. Slow and steady.
vi) SecureProfit also maintain at 1% tied up with clause iii
vii) Most trade are intraday. Am planning to do timing closure, but couldn't find the best setting so far.
These are the few important findings since V12, RB26.
V12 is basically a super anti trend system, its darn profitable while ranging. Because anti trend allowed the EA to open a lot of stacked up orders, and profit big when retracement appeared. Obviously, it got killed when trend comes.
RB26 is a trend follower. It detects volatility and trend occurance to open trade. Look carefully what happened to the market lately, since 20th September, 2006. The entire market behaviour changed drastically. Whenever there is a trend change from up trend to down trend. Market will make a strong move on the opposite direction. It move up 200pips then suddenly change trend. RB26 oftenly got stucked during trend change.
Regards
David