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I think so. My guess is that, because of this, there will not be much market movement. Correct me if wrong.
to nina
Nina, is it safe to say that you think that the elliot wave theory is a bunch of BS? i have read up on it and it makes sense, but i don't think that it is really well founded. What do you think?
Nina, is it safe to say that you think that the elliot wave theory is a bunch of BS? i have read up on it and it makes sense, but i don't think that it is really well founded. What do you think?
Hi, Jwoger!
I was a user of EW and I was a fan of it. I really thought I had found something great and gorgeous. A lot of Institutions have their own elliotician. They make their analysis and projections. There are a lot of people that rely on wave theory. Ok, this is a fact, this is true and it is real. But I do not follow EW anymore. More than that: if you rely on it, you are going to lose all your money.
I think it is a waste of time and money but, as I studied it, I can not avoid "to count waves". It is something unconscious. If you are going to follow EW, I recommend Robert Miner instead of Prechter. The first is honest, the second is a seller.
I found what follows somewhere in Internet:
Elliott Wave is a controversial cyclical theory proposed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, an accountant who during a long period of convalescence from severe illness decided to examine the stock market averages in the wake of the disaster of 1929 to find some sort of method behind the madness of the market. Elliott uncovered what he believed to be a recurring pattern in financial averages and even social phenomena that allowed for the first time a certain degree of foresight into upcoming market moves.
In the most simple and crude terms, the pattern he identified was of a 5 segment zig-zag that makes up all impulse (direction of the trend) moves and a 3 segment zig-zag that characterises all corrective moves. As if the phenomena seen was some sort of rhythmical ebb and flow like an ocean, he named these moves as waves. Fibonacci ratios are commonly associated with the number of waves and the distance that they travel.
Elliott's theory is an extension of a highly successful earlier theory called Dow Theory, and has similarities to a number of cyclical theories by Kondratieff and others.
This simple description belies the enormous complexity that has evolved in Elliott Wave study by those that follow these methods, who call themselves Elliotticians. Simple capsule summaries do not do this method any justice whatsoever, an intricate system of rules and guidelines has emerged from study of all market data available from history and until today. The method is so intricate that exponents may spend many years trying to learn its subtleties.
A wide catalogue of variations on the 5/3 theme have emerged, several types of complex and simple correction patterns, extended waves, irregular tops with corrections taking markets to new highs, and many levels of fractal dimension, with the 5/3 pattern visible on data of any time frame. Interpreting the waves is a highly subjective task that leads only to an analysis of probable outcomes, not a definite forecast. Because the method merely provides a range of choices without ever giving any certainties, critics dismiss Elliott Wave as being too subjective to be of any use, and too easily reinterpreted in order to justify any desired market view.
Unfortunately, the principle like many other exotic forecasting techniques has been hijacked by unscrupulous gurus selling forecasting advice through newsletters. One thing Elliott Wave cannot do is provide certain outcomes, like a statistician who can usually only provide a probability distribution as an answer, Elliotticians generate a series of outcomes consistent with Elliott rules and guidelines and attempt to make a subjective analysis of which forecasts make the most sense with regard to all available data. Market positions are taken based on a risk/reward based hedging strategy. The average subscriber doesn't appreciate this, and wouldn't understand even if you explained it to them properly, and so the analysis is dumbed down to the level of a speculator that can't do his own research, and the value of the Elliott Wave principle is of course diluted.
The other thing the Elliott Wave principle can't do very well is give forecasts on individual stocks, especially thinly traded ones. It is very unfortunate that so few people appreciate this. The Elliott Wave principle is most suitable for market averages, the Dow Jones 30 is the most widely followed index in the world and whatever strange mass psychological forces guide investors in the DJ30 stocks make this the best index for calculating Elliott Wave probabilities. The principle works on other major indices, some commodities, and crops up from time to time in major stocks, however the extent of moves and the interpretation of wave counts becomes incoherent and undependable. Elliott Wave can be a useful trading tool, sometimes, but usually it is downright futile. An Elliott Wave newsletter pitched at anything but advanced students of the technique is all but useless to anyone, and is merely a tips sheet with an Elliott Wave theme.
The other thing to watch out for is Elliott Wave software. Because of the complexity it is tempting to purchase a computerised mechanical trading system so as to make analysis automatic and simple for someone who would rather invest money than time and intellectual resources. The trouble is that computers are really too dumb to make it work.
A program like Advanced GET, which is an expensive but pretty good futures technical analysis package uses a very simplified version of the theory in a mechanical trading system. Whatever you would call this, it is not kosher Elliott Wave. Other programs I have seen and tried include Winwaves 32, an "expert system" rule based package that was withdrawn from sale after American consumer authorities demanded the programmers either prove their outlandish claims or cease trading and give people's money back. I had a go of WW32 once, it was pitiful, never picking the right place to baseline a wave sequence, it gave wildly inaccurate results when used with anything other than the included hand picked sample data. I have examined many other programs and found them all to be lacking. The trouble is, these programs either completely ignore the fact that Elliott Wave is probabilistic in nature, or merely choose one or two outcomes and give a definitive answer where no such certainty is warranted.
If you are looking for a tool that will provide absolutely certain market outlooks, then I know a few people with some attractively priced packages selling airspace above airports if you are interested. Nothing in this whole arena does that, not technical analysis and not even the most highly respected fundamental analysis methods. No one knows what the market is going to do, and an Elliottician knows this was well as anyone. Elliottician's have been consistently wrong for a decade now, predicting a crash of a magnitude dwarfing 1929 for a long time. That certainly is a possibility, and if you follow Elliott Wave theory you will know this as the Grand Supercycle Correction... the superposition of every market correction on every time-frame. While the theory certainly does predict this, it is one of numerous probabilities. Some say the market is already in that corrective mode, in what is called an irregular top. Another possibility is that a glitch has occurred in the wave record, with the ending of the Industrial Age a decade ago and the start of the Information Age, there is no need for a Grand Supercycle Correction.
I think the best book I have read on the subject is Elliott Wave Explained by Robert C. Beckman.
Nina
Hi!
About today:
Today is our Labor Day. It is holyday in Euro Zone, London and Switzerland.
Market is very thin. Take care. If you do not need totrade, do not do it.
Nina
BTW,
It would be very nice to see where everybody is from.
Thank you!
Nina
BTW,
It would be very nice to see where everybody is from.
Thank you!
Ninahi nina
what do you thing about the us session today at 14:30?
"personal income" & "personal spending" will probably creat some volatility.... i'll think
wish you a sunny day in beautiful barcelona
mr_smart
Level 4 - still confused
Hi y'all!
I'm a silent reader of this gorgeous thread for three months now, and would like to emphasize my deep appreciation to nina, mibl, harold and all the others who share their knowledge. It's honestly one of the most valuable threads I came across.
While I'm not new to CatFX and its rules, I'm still a little confused about the conditions for a "Level 4" signal. And even mibl's post #3373 couldn't clarify that, It linked to some charts in which nina showed signals with arrows (#2817).
Would anyone of the "seniors" be so kind and explain with own words which conditions should be met to enter a Level 4 trade. I know, we have to see some "strength", as nina said, but there have to be some "hard facts", I think. I searched the whole thread for this Level 4 explanation, but couldn't find it.
Any help appreciated,
Best regards
hossie
Hi, mr-samrt!
As you know, Europe is off today. Market is dead. That does not mean it couldn't be a big pocket wanting to shake it a little bit.
In my opinion, if we do not get very astonish US data, nothing is going to happen.
I'd look at CAD data and ISM too.
Nina
Hi y'all!
I'm a silent reader of this gorgeous thread for three months now, and would like to emphasize my deep appreciation to nina, mibl, harold and all the others who share their knowledge. It's honestly one of the most valuable threads I came across.
While I'm not new to CatFX and its rules, I'm still a little confused about the conditions for a "Level 4" signal. And even mibl's post #3373 couldn't clarify that, It linked to some charts in which nina showed signals with arrows (#2817).
Would anyone of the "seniors" be so kind and explain with own words which conditions should be met to enter a Level 4 trade. I know, we have to see some "strength", as nina said, but there have to be some "hard facts", I think. I searched the whole thread for this Level 4 explanation, but couldn't find it.
Any help appreciated,
Best regards
hossieWelcome to the club, Hossie!!
As you know, we have different kind of signals:
Level 1 or standard
Level 2
Level 3
and Level 4.
All these set of signals besides Level 1, allow us to squeeze more CatFX50.
If you look at the last of the charts on post 2817, you'll see Level 4 signal with a red horizontal line. We were short there and Histo was in red. But price went up and then went down again with Histo always in red. Well, when price break the last low, this is Level 4 signal. It is a breakout.
I stress we need strength. We should take those signals when the trend, the movement is strong. Otherwise, we are going to lose.
If you are already in, you can add or you can not. And if you are not in, you can sell.
I do not recommend to take those signals if we are face a flat market. If we do so, we are going to lose a lot, mates. A lot.
Nina
Nina or any mates, I have only used spreadbetting for my trades and would like to know how to use lots when trading. It seems that trading with lots is a good idea in that you can enter at different levels of a trade.
Appologies for the digression from catfx. but would appreciate any help/advice on the topic.