CatFx50 - page 294
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Hey folks. I was just saying that during news releases, your odds are always lower when your candle is touching the MA after it closes below/above. If you look at the cable charts (or most charts), you'll see that whenever a candle is touching after a crossover and close of a candle, it's most likely the next one will either reverse or will also close touching the candle. It's best to wait for another to close completely above/below w/o a touch.
Just an observation meant to help.
Good trading,
PTYes, you are totally right, newstrading is always very difficult and it is always risky to take a long or shorttrade in this case to early, although the signals for a proper CatFX trade are coming up.
Arguments for not taking that CatFx signals today at that newstime could have been for example
1. MA50 and Ma120 show an uptend
2. Downcandle was to long and some pips away of MA50.
So a retracement back above the MA50 was most likely than a further downmove.
But everybody is wise after the event.
Upcoming Signal on GBP appears to be in Sell mode for Stoch and EMA 50 --- anyone else ?
edit: ok - definate short signal on GBP: 17:30 GMT @1.7494 aNina has sell arrow - opened Below EMA50 - Stoch in Red Sell below -0.04 mark. I will set a stop loss at -34 pips and a target profit at the pivot level (@1.7462)
Upcoming Signal on GBP appears to be in Sell mode for Stoch and EMA 50 --- anyone else ?
Second candle opened under Ma50 and aNina has turned to short.
Histogramm shows short (< -0.04)
Alpari data feed
But it is after 18:00 cet.
Reemul99, beware, the MA 120 and 169 are very close.
Indicators set up
Thanks Mibl the indicators are set up now. Please have a look and see if they are well set.
Reemul99, beware, the MA 120 and 169 are very close.
Thanks Dave1 - I dont use the 169 - but I do see that the 120 is close - if it tests and cannot break below the EMA 120 - I'll probably close the position.
mibl, I thought a main point of CatFx50 is to avoid the news.
Use the straddle method or some other system, but I think CatFx50 breaks down and shouldn't be used around news time.
Thoughts ?Hi reemul99,
I do not know any daytrading system which "works good" when it's signals are falling into news time of heavy weighted news (for forex f.e. NFP, trade balance or GDP). News time is often a exception time where the normal market behavior could not clearly explained for some minutes - but afterwards the market came back to the normal state.
That should not be an excuse for the bad signals catfx made at that time. I think catfx is superior when not only traded automatically. You need to make some discrete decisions -> additionally watch the market conditions.
As Nina says always I could agree: The chart tells you what is going on - not the news. But do not forget them as side-conditions of the market (f.e. trends, supports, res., ...)
Situation on cable this afternoon:Cable was in a small up trend since yesterday. Then we've got light-pro-$-news and cable fall about 50 pips in some minutes. Yes - perhaps it could be that it had been fallen another 50/60 pips - but on what risk after a fast movement of 50 pips if you weight up that the news weren't so extreme good that this would be highly probable.
Earning money systematically on news time:
The only way to earn money systematically on news time is to use the straddle method you mentioned below.
But most brokers do not allow that on a recurring task (on real accounts even when it is possible on their demo accounts). I know from different traders (traded these kind of trades) who were canceled for the automatic trade excecution and turned to order desk excecution. Another thing that could be is that the spreads are growing during news time and so the possible profit will be in danger. I do not know if interbankfx allows straddle method on a regularly base.
The background is that the brokers themselves must hedge all their trades and if you perform these kind of "one second to one or two minute" trades during news time they have problems with that. So the two ways are 1.) to forbid or 2.) to widen the spread.
mibl
Hi Mibl,
One question I have surrounding News releases and CatFx50.
If you still have open positions when upcoming news is set to be released, should you close the position? Or Roll the Dice and hope the news breaks your way?
Seems to me that holding is very risky, but if the news goes your way, you could see large profits.
...Perhaps Greenspan wasn't so far off about Forex trading being close to playing a coin-tossing game... 50/50 chance ...
todays RECAP
GBPUSD (Cable):
Level 1 short 15:00cet @1.7484, should be stopped out => -34 pips (ex spread) *)
USDCHF
Level 1 short 15:00cet @1.3014, should be stopped out => -34 pips (ex spread) *)
Level 2 long 16:30cet @1.2998, made a high @1.3009 => no real decision yet
EURUSD
Level 1 short 14:30cet @1.2118 - made a low @1.2065 => +53 pips (ex spread)
The are other signals after the regular trading time in cable and eurusd short. Further comments and explanations see post #2950 too.
*) news time
mibl
GBPUSD (Cable): mibl
let me ask a stupid question: does anyone know why they call GBP 'cable' ?