CatFx50 - page 698
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I believe Nina is just posting the moves but not trades.
According to my Neuimex in the three pairs the up and down bars had 60 to 100 pips.
With the euro you could make (with huge luck) 18 pips before NFP 105 pips reversal.
Then if you enter long with the new bar you could make 30 pips.
And then, taking a high risk trade, you could enter short after the 120 pips bar reversal you could made 15 pips.
With GBP you had the most clear signal, 45 pips before NFP reversal. 50 pips after big bar and 30 plus 156 pips bar reversal.
CHF it´s similar to the Euro
Maybe I´m too conservative and I only want to play clear an sure moves, but I remember two of the rules of Cat:
1-When bar open more than 20 pips above/below EMA 50, the signal is riskier.
2-Whe´re playing with closed bar, or when the bars opens...
In all three cases the big bars have crossed the EMA 50 twice (up and down), so, you have to wait for the next bar open above/below narrowing the field to play.
Another thing is, if you are a responsible trader, you should close all trades before NPF with one exception: if you´re trading with TF above 3hs.
However, you can made a lot of money today using support/resistance conbined with supply and demand. In few words: buy low, sell high.Hi!!
Sorry, Linuxser and other pals!
This was my post number 6989 at 14:00CET:
"Hi, Pals!
OK, big day is here: NFP.
Lets see how and where we have our beloved pairs:
EURUSD is in sell mode. It should keep like this if it does not break up 1,3296.
USDCHF is in buy mode. It should keep like this if it does not break down 1,1940.
GBPUSD is in sell mode. It should keep like this if it does not break up 1,9614.
As you know, NFP is a monster. So, you can go up 30 pips and then go down 150. So, take care. There have been awful games lately.
Then you have what our "friends" do. FOREX is a non-regulated business and brokers can make whatever they want. And they want your money: do not forget that.
And then you have all those revisions NFP people use to do.
Good luck."
These levels have nothing to do with CATFX50. The recap (?) done is taking into account these levels and not what CATFX50 made.
The only place we could have bought EURUSD following CATFX50 is at 1,3334 (Alpari) with an unaffordable stop. As we had a lot of strength, look at TF5 and you'll see.
But we had a right fractal up at 1,3323 with a stop at 1,3298 or at 1,3280. And we had a right fractal down at 1,3237 with a huge stop.
CATFX50 was not the best system to trade NFP yesterday. As I know that, that's why I posted the levels half an hour before data where each pair changed from bearish to bullish and from bullish to bearish in the case of EURUSD and GBPUSD.
When those levels broke there was no hesitation. It was like a rocket.
Hi, JaneFX!
I do not want to start again a discussion about EW. I said all I wanted to say.
Each trader is free to follow whatever systems as long as it gives money to him/her.
No problem.
Wow
finally somebody steps up and applies technical analysis to newstrading ... Not to mention the huge spike, where price really did not do anything at all ....
Sorry to say but any tech trader should not try to prove that the system works with that kind of move it just makes the system looks useless.
I am quite sad that this is the first time I found the threat ( I was looking for it though ) because it is so bloated wif comments that belong to an offtopic area and not to a place where people discuss prices from a very sophisticated background ( if we leave away the ones on the look for the holy grale )
It would be best for the threat if offtopic could be stopped, whether it is Oh my Gosh Nina you are the greatest or Oh my Gosh you suck and return to a discussion about the topic. This will leave more room for a good discussion on price levels, will reveal some insight and so on.
Trading in my opinion is a mix of tech and fundamental ( wow ... dood that was hellasmart
).
Please lets all act together to work on our trading instead of bashing each other. After all I think that the main actor in this thread shows extraordinary skills that could benefit most of us readers.
Next week is going to be very intereting after having seen nfp and michigan coming in rather strong for the US economy, but not so much for the US $.
Tuesday and Friday will set the stage whether the Dollar has seen its bottom or if this is was just the beginning of a trend that will send the Euro to 1.40 and the Pound to above 2.00
My reading on this is that with the big picture in mind that the housing market hast bottomed, labor market is still tight and inflation still slightly higher than wanted, we will most propably see the Dollar against Euro and Franc trend higher ( especially with slightly weaker Euro Data and quiet weak Swiss data on the hand ). The Pound, I must say, will definitly struggle to keep this level or even trend higher with a housing bubble burst on the rise and the BOE with little room to raise interest rates.
Level for the end of the week should be
Dollar Euro ( 1.29 )
can easily retrace to 1.30 area (whereas the 1.29 area should be a strong support ) to find a new support level there since the move that elavated this cross hat inflationary tendecies and should normalize over the next week if the data coming from the US is not too weak ( and of course if whatever the Fed does will not spur a sellout in the Dollar, wich I do not believe )
Dollar Cable (1.92 )
will definitly not see 2 : 1 this year amid very weak UK Data expected next week especially wif inflationary pressure weakening that should not drive interest rates to the US levels ( wich to me appears to be the key factor that allows a 2:1 ratio ). Housing and bad loans should become a greater problem for the pound.
CHF USD Driving factor here the Euro but should find support at 1.2250 with interest rates at the second lowes among the majors that leaves some room for gains but this is a question to be answered by the banking sector there.
Overall Euro/CHF is bound to gain over the next year so Dollar shorts should pay off at the end in any case.
Just my 2 Cents
Wow
finally somebody steps up and applies technical analysis to newstrading ... Not to mention the huge spike, where price really did not do anything at all ....
Sorry to say but any tech trader should not try to prove that the system works with that kind of move it just makes the system looks useless.
I am quite sad that this is the first time I found the threat ( I was looking for it though ) because it is so bloated wif comments that belong to an offtopic area and not to a place where people discuss prices from a very sophisticated background ( if we leave away the ones on the look for the holy grale )
It would be best for the threat if offtopic could be stopped, whether it is Oh my Gosh Nina you are the greatest or Oh my Gosh you suck and return to a discussion about the topic. This will leave more room for a good discussion on price levels, will reveal some insight and so on.
Trading in my opinion is a mix of tech and fundamental ( wow ... dood that was hellasmart
).
Please lets all act together to work on our trading instead of bashing each other. After all I think that the main actor in this thread shows extraordinary skills that could benefit most of us readers.
Next week is going to be very intereting after having seen nfp and michigan coming in rather strong for the US economy, but not so much for the US $.
Tuesday and Friday will set the stage whether the Dollar has seen its bottom or if this is was just the beginning of a trend that will send the Euro to 1.40 and the Pound to above 2.00
My reading on this is that with the big picture in mind that the housing market hast bottomed, labor market is still tight and inflation still slightly higher than wanted, we will most propably see the Dollar against Euro and Franc trend higher ( especially with slightly weaker Euro Data and quiet weak Swiss data on the hand ). The Pound, I must say, will definitly struggle to keep this level or even trend higher with a housing bubble burst on the rise and the BOE with little room to raise interest rates.
Level for the end of the week should be
Dollar Euro ( 1.29 )
can easily retrace to 1.30 area (whereas the 1.29 area should be a strong support ) to find a new support level there since the move that elavated this cross hat inflationary tendecies and should normalize over the next week if the data coming from the US is not too weak ( and of course if whatever the Fed does will not spur a sellout in the Dollar, wich I do not believe )
Dollar Cable (1.92 )
will definitly not see 2 : 1 this year amid very weak UK Data expected next week especially wif inflationary pressure weakening that should not drive interest rates to the US levels ( wich to me appears to be the key factor that allows a 2:1 ratio ). Housing and bad loans should become a greater problem for the pound.
CHF USD Driving factor here the Euro but should find support at 1.2250 with interest rates at the second lowes among the majors that leaves some room for gains but this is a question to be answered by the banking sector there.
Overall Euro/CHF is bound to gain over the next year so Dollar shorts should pay off at the end in any case.
Just my 2 CentsHi, Smooth!
Why Central Banks bought EUR at its lows on Friday?
Why a leveraged account bought USD 7bln when it was at its lows?
We could find a few Fridays like the last one. From its low (14:30CET bar), EURUSD went up 127 pips. And from its high (16:00CET bar), EURUSD went down 175 pips. All that astonish and sick range in just 3 hours. A move of 302pips!!!!!
EURUSD closed at its worst level in 5 days.
I do not like what happened on Friday. I do not like it at all.
But as trading is what you see and not what you think, EURUSD will be in bullish mode as long as it keeps closing hourly above 1,3128.
An hourly close below 1,3128 will mean, for me, that the pair will be set to go to 1,2880.
The EURUSD close on Friday below 1,3215, gave me the first signal of weakness.
Next will be 1,3165.
We'll see.
Hi!!
The Economist
The disappearing dollar
Dec 2nd 2004
From The Economist print edition
How long can it remain the world's most important reserve currency?
THE dollar has been the leading international currency for as long as most people can remember. But its dominant role can no longer be taken for granted. If America keeps on spending and borrowing at its present pace, the dollar will eventually lose its mighty status in international finance. And that would hurt: the privilege of being able to print the world's reserve currency, a privilege which is now at risk, allows America to borrow cheaply, and thus to spend much more than it earns, on far better terms than are available to others. Imagine you could write cheques that were accepted as payment but never cashed. That is what it amounts to. If you had been granted that ability, you might take care to hang on to it. America is taking no such care, and may come to regret it.
The cost of neglect
The dollar is not what it used to be. Over the past three years it has fallen by 35% against the euro and by 24% against the yen. But its latest slide is merely a symptom of a worse malaise: the global financial system is under great strain. America has habits that are inappropriate, to say the least, for the guardian of the world's main reserve currency: rampant government borrowing, furious consumer spending and a current-account deficit big enough to have bankrupted any other country some time ago. This makes a dollar devaluation inevitable, not least because it becomes a seemingly attractive option for the leaders of a heavily indebted America. Policymakers now seem to be talking the dollar down. Yet this is a dangerous game. Why would anybody want to invest in a currency that will almost certainly depreciate?
A second disturbing feature of the global financial system is that it has become a giant money press as America's easy-money policy has spilled beyond its borders. Total global liquidity is growing faster in real terms than ever before. Emerging economies that try to fix their currencies against the dollar, notably in Asia, have been forced to amplify the Fed's super-loose monetary policy: when central banks buy dollars to hold down their currencies, they print local money to do so. This gush of global liquidity has not pushed up inflation. Instead it has flowed into share prices and houses around the world, inflating a series of asset-price bubbles.
America's current-account deficit is at the heart of these global concerns. The OECD's latest Economic Outlook predicts that the deficit will rise to $825 billion by 2006 (6.4% of America's GDP) assuming unchanged exchange rates. Optimists argue that foreigners will keep financing the deficit because American assets offer high returns and a haven from risk. In fact, private investors have already turned away from dollar assets: the returns on investments in America have recently been lower than in Europe or Japan (see article). And can a currency that has been sliding against the world's next two biggest currencies for 30 years be regarded as “safe”?
In a free market, without the massive support of Asian central banks, the dollar would be far weaker. In any case, such support has its limits, and the dollar now seems likely to fall further. How harmful will the economic consequences be? Will it really undermine the dollar's reserve-currency status?
Periods of dollar decline have often been unhappy for the world economy. The breakdown of Bretton Woods that led to a weaker dollar in the early 1970s was painful for all, contributing to rising inflation and recession. In the late 1980s, the falling dollar had few ill-effects on America's economy, but it played a big role in inflating a bubble in Japan by forcing Japanese authorities to slash interest rates.
This time round, it is a bad sign that everybody is trying to point the finger of blame at somebody else. America says its external deficit is mainly due to sluggish growth in Europe and Japan, and to the fact that China is pegging its exchange rate too low. Europe, alarmed at the “brutal” rise in the euro, says that America's high public borrowing and low household saving are the real culprits.
There is something to both these claims. China and other Asian economies should indeed let their currencies rise, relieving pressure on the euro. It is also true that Asia is partly to blame for America's consumer binge: its central banks' large purchases of Treasury bonds have depressed bond yields, encouraging households in the United States to take out bigger mortgages and spend the cash. And Europe needs to accept, as it is unwilling to, that a weaker dollar will be a good thing if it helps to shrink America's deficit and curb the risk of a future crisis. At the same time, Europe is also right: most of the blame for America's deficit lies at home. America needs to cut its budget deficit. It is not a question of either do this or do that: a cheaper dollar and higher American saving are both needed if a crunch is to be avoided.
Simple but harsh
Many American policymakers talk as though it is better to rely entirely on a falling dollar to solve, somehow, all their problems. Conceivably, it could happen—but such a one-sided remedy would most likely be far more painful than they imagine. America's challenge is not just to reduce its current-account deficit to a level which foreigners are happy to finance by buying more dollar assets, but also to persuade existing foreign creditors to hang on to their vast stock of dollar assets, estimated at almost $11 trillion. A fall in the dollar sufficient to close the current-account deficit might destroy its safe-haven status. If the dollar falls by another 30%, as some predict, it would amount to the biggest default in history: not a conventional default on debt service, but default by stealth, wiping trillions off the value of foreigners' dollar assets.
The dollar's loss of reserve-currency status would lead America's creditors to start cashing those cheques—and what an awful lot of cheques there are to cash. As that process gathered pace, the dollar could tumble further and further. American bond yields (long-term interest rates) would soar, quite likely causing a deep recession. Americans who favour a weak dollar should be careful what they wish for. Cutting the budget deficit looks cheap at the price.
Well, well, well..... The entire world is bearish here, like Financial Times. So, this reminds me that story that says: when your barber says to buy EUR, it is time to sell it.
The Economist made another cover like the one you see here. It was December 2004. $ went up 8% afterwards.
Again, we'll see.
Das, Mibl,
Thanks, for your help much appreciated.
Nina your doing a great job, like your style Mate. Which indicator gives the green/red bars as you have below your chart.juice is the indicator
Hi Angel,
I am not Nina but may help. My data provider is NorthFinance (time on the chart ist cet+1).
See the attached chart USDCFH. All conditions of CatFX are valid to enter a trade - the StepMA_Stoch cross was earlier in the morning
best wishes
miblHmm,could be..I`ve done but I think it will go down oon because of the `short area`. And EMA 50 hasn`t been crossed.
Patience is better than thinking in this case and so I will go to breakfast
I never liked the Economist, basically for the paper and the format ... but anyway
Seeing Central Banks buying Euros at these days is nothing uncommon. The Dollar is obviously facing a tough future with Japan and China holding roughly 2 Trillion USD alone that want to be cashed in as soon as the economy allows it.
For Japan this will be the coming year as the economy shows signs of strengthening.
For China it might come sooner as pressure on inflation eases which can allow the chinese government to help the Yuan to higher levels ( having the 2008 Olympics in the back of our minds where some money will be exchange to Yuan and so forth)
This will put the USD on the weak side.
It is not so much the strength of the european economy ( that I really do not see at this moment with many new members and many more on the way ) that will let the Euro appreciate further but more its reliability and the still low interest rate level ( that you will find not in the UK for example ).
To sum this up.
We have heard horror scenarios for the US over years now, they never came true, which is obvious since the US ( + NAFTA ) stands for quite a large domestic market and a somehow large exporting industry. Hence I don't see a hard landing for the US right now. They are pretty well of with a domestic market that stands for a major part of the economy + if the US should "crash" this would lead to a tremendous threat for world economy. Besides a Country like the US can not go broke, no matter how high the trade deficite may be.
This gives the Economy itself a good perspective for the future.
The Dollar is another thing. Being held by Central Banks as reserves for many years has inflated the Dollar to an extend that is no more sustainable. Many Central Banks ( Iran, Russia, Middle East, Venezuela ) have expressed they will diversify their reserves.
This will leave the Dollar tumbling over the next year with gains for Euro / CHF and Yen.