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Oil prices recover after slipping on China data :
U.S. futures for crude oil rebounded from earlier losses on Monday as upbeat manufacturing data from Europe helped compensate for lackluster data from China, the world’s second-largest economy.
Crude for August delivery CLQ3 +1.35% rose 48 cents, or 0.5%, to $97.05 a barrel in electronic trade. Gains came alongside higher U.S. stock futures and as the dollar continued to move up against the yen.
Oil gathered some momentum after European data showed gains for manufacturing activity, as measured by purchasing managers survey indexes. Only Germany’s PMI was revised down. That data also helped boost Europe stocks.
Oil was dinged earlier after separate surveys showed further slowing in Chinese manufacturing activity in June.
The report from the Chinese government showed the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 50.1 from 50.8 in May. A separate survey from HSBC showed its own monthly PMI declining to 48.2 in June from 49.2 in May.
Forum
EURUSD Technical Analysis 30.06 - 07.07 : Possible Reversal
newdigital, 2013.07.01 16:07
2013-07-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
past data is 49.0 according to release
forecast is 50.6
actual is 50.9 according to latest release.
U.S. Manufacturing Index Climbs Slightly More Than Expected In June
After reporting a contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Institute for Supply Management released a report on Monday showing that manufacturing activity expanded by a little more than expected in June.
The ISM said its purchasing managers index climbed to 50.9 in June from 49.0 in May, with a reading above 50 indicating an increase in manufacturing activity. Economists had been expecting the index to edge up to a reading of 50.5.
Gold jumps 2 pct after biggest quarterly drop on record
Gold jumped 2 percent on Monday as trading for the third quarter opened, but traders were doubtful about near-term strength over continuous worries about a pullback of U.S. stimulus measures that caused bullion's record drop in the previous quarter.
The dollar fell against most currencies as better-than-expected manufacturing data from Europe and Japan provided relief to gold and other risky assets that have recently sold off with the prospect of reduced stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve.
Investor confidence in gold - which fell a record 23 percent in the second quarter - has been eroded by rising talk of an end to the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy, which would support arise in interest rates, making the shiny metal less attractive.
Spot gold hovered at around $1,234 an ounce by 11:50 EDT (1550 GMT). It had surged 2.2 percent earlier to a session peak of $1,260.61, well above the near three-year low of $1,180.71 on Friday on speculation the Fed will rein in its $85 billion monthly bond purchase programme.
Comex gold futures for August delivery were up 2.6 percent at $1,254.70.
This was the following high impacted news event for AUD at 04:30 am GMT (or at 06:30 MQ time) :
2013-07-02 04:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Interest Rate]
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Australia's Central Bank Keeps Cash Rate Unchanged :
Australia's central bank on Tuesday decided to retain the benchmark cash rate unchanged at 2.75 percent as expected, while maintaining its view that the inflation outlook allowed some scope to ease monetary policy further.
The Reserve Bank Board judged that the easier financial conditions now in place will contribute to a strengthening of growth over time, consistent with achieving the inflation target.
The Board also noted that the recent national accounts data has confirmed that the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the recent period.
2013-07-02 08:30 GMT | [GBP - PMI Construction]
This news event was at 08:30 am GMT, or 10:30 MQ time.
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UK Construction Activity At One-Year High :
British construction sector activity expanded for a second consecutive month in June and at the strongest pace in over a year, a survey report from Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply showed Tuesday.
The headline purchasing managers' index rose to 51 in June from 50.8 in May. The June reading was the highest since May 2012.
Readings above 50 indicate expansion of the sector. The index has now remained above 50 for a second successive month in June.
Higher output levels were driven by a solid rate of new order growth in June, and this in turn contributed to rising employment levels in the construction sector during the latest survey period, the report said.
New order growth was the strongest in 13 months. In June, the rate of job creation was the most marked since September 2012. The survey also found that business confidence among builders was at its highest level since April 2012.
Residential building activity improved for a fifth consecutive month, but the rate of expansion eased from May's 26-month high. Business activity stabilized in commercial and civil engineering sub-sectors.
2013-07-02 09:00 GMT | [EUR - Producer Price Index (PPI)]
(MoM)
(YoY)
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Eurozone Producer Prices Fall For Second Month :
Eurozone producer prices declined for the second consecutive month in May, largely reflecting weak energy prices, data published by Eurostat revealed Tuesday.
Producer prices slipped 0.1 percent on a yearly basis, after falling 0.2 percent in April. This was the second consecutive fall in prices. Economists had forecast prices to remain flat in May.
Month-on-month, producer prices fell 0.3 percent, which was slower than the 0.6 percent decline seen in April. But the rate of decline slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.2 percent.
Prices in total industry excluding the energy sector increased 0.5 percent from a year ago, following a 0.6 percent rise.
Durable consumer goods gained 0.7 percent and non-durable consumer goods rose 2 percent. Likewise, capital goods increased by 0.6 percent, it said.
Meanwhile, prices in the energy sector decreased 1.8 percent and intermediate goods fell by 0.5 percent.
2013-07-02 14:00 GMT | [USD - Factory Orders]
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U.S. Factory Orders Rise Slightly More Than Expected In May
New orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose by slightly more than expected in the month of May, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, with the increase largely due to a jump in orders for transportation equipment.
The Commerce Department said factory orders surged up by 2.1 percent in May following an upwardly revised 1.3 percent increase in April. Economists had expected orders to increase by 2.0 percent compared to the 1.0 percent growth originally reported for the previous month.
2013-07-02 16:30 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] - see release here
The whole speech is here : The National and Regional Economy :
Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009, we have had 15 consecutive quarters of positive growth of real GDP. However, the average annual growth rate over that period has been just 2.1 percent. Although the unemployment rate has declined by 2.5 percentage points from its peak of 10 percent in October of 2009, much of this decline is due to the fact that the labor force participation rate has fallen by 1.5 percentage points over this period. Recall that discouraged workers who do not actively look for work are regarded as not participating in the labor force and so are not counted as unemployed even though they are without jobs. Using an alternative measure, the employment to population ratio, which is not influenced by changes in the number of discouraged workers, there has been limited improvement in labor market conditions. Job loss rates have fallen, but hiring rates remain depressed at low levels. Taken together, the labor market still cannot be regarded as healthy. Numerous indicators, including the behavior of labor compensation and household assessments of labor market conditions, are all consistent with the view that there remains a great deal of slack in the economy.
That being said, I see persuasive evidence of improved underlying fundamentals for much of the private sector of the U.S. economy. Key measures of household leverage have declined and are now at the lowest levels they have been in well over a decade. Household net worth, expressed as a percent of disposable income, has increased back to its average of the previous decade, reflecting rising equity and home prices and declining liabilities. Banks are beginning to ease credit standards somewhat after a prolonged period of tightness. As a result, we are now experiencing a fairly typical cyclical recovery of consumer spending on durable goods. For example, light-weight motor vehicles sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million in May, not far from the 16.1 million sales in 2007.
We are having the thread about Gold here : Gold is Reaching at 1270 with some short technical analysis estimating by AbsoluteStrength indicator so that is why I am uploading some press releases for Gold on this thread.
Forum
Gold is Reaching at 1270
newdigital, 2013.07.01 21:04
How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?
well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.
bullish (Bull market) :
bearish (Bear market) :
ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :
flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :
correction :
correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :
===============
Forbes - Analysts: Gold Needs Fresh Catalyst To Build On Short-Covering Rally :
Gold would need a catalyst such as softer U.S. economic data or a break above key technical-chart levels, if the metal is to continue the bounce from a 34-month low hit Friday, traders and analysts said.
Otherwise, they say, the recent bounce is mainly the result of some traders trying to pick a bottom and covering short positions. The latter is buying to offset positions in which traders previously sold, or went short.
A wide range of markets, including Treasury notes, has been factoring in an expectation that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will start tapering its quantitative easing program this year, assuming economic improvement continues. Against this backdrop, as the dollar and Treasury yields rose, August gold last week fell as far as $1,179.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
“It’s fallen so much a bounce would be expected,” said Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial.
That’s just what happened, with the contract climbing back to an overnight high of $1,267. That meant a low-to-high gain over the last several days of $87.60, or 7.4%.
Traders have suggested short covering ahead of the end of the second quarter, U.S. Fourth of July holiday and Friday’s employment data have helped support prices above $1,200, as well as profit taking.
So what would it take for gold to keep rallying?
“You would need to see a major fundamental change,” said Sterling Smith, futures specialist with Citi Institutional Client Group. “We would have to see inflation or something that would support the Fed continuing its current policies.”
In particular, the metal would benefit if the monthly U.S. jobs report due out Friday were to come in weaker than forecast, said Sean Lusk, director of commercial trading with Walsh Trading.
“If that were to happen, we would create more uncertainty in the market over when any tapering might begin for QE3 (third round of quantitative easing),” Lusk said. “Jobs are everything as far as the economy is concerned. If the jobs number comes in below 100,000 or in the low 100s or much worse than expected, we have a chance to rally to $1,280, $1,290 and maybe challenge $1,300.”
Rob Kurzatkowski, senior commodity analyst with optionsXpress, commented that gold is already drawing some support from traders who see the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity.
“Gold prices have fallen below levels that would make some mines unprofitable, suggesting that some mines may either curb production or go off-line until the price of the metal increases,” Kurzatkowski said. “The break-even points for South African mines may increase later this month, as labor talks between unions and mines kick off. The unions have a number of demands, including sharp wage increases. South African mines could fight the wage increase, which could lead to labor turmoil and strikes, or cave in to mine workers. Either scenario could potentially be bullish for gold prices.”
Meanwhile, Kurzatkowski listed both $1,200 and $1,300 as significant levels on each side of the market. He also commented that the “ferocity” of the price action on the bounce has not matched the previous selling pressure.
“The $1,200 level is technically significant in the near term, as there is very little support between it and the $1,000 support mark,” he said. “Failure to hold $1,200 could kick off a fresh wave of selling pressure. If gold futures manage to take out the $1,300 level on the upside, the market may see additional short covering, potentially accelerating the rally.”
Just about those 2 news events for AUD - Trade Balance and Retail Sales. First one is Trade Balance :
2013-07-03 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]
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Australia Trade Surplus A$670 Million In May :
Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$670 million in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - up 292 percent on month.
The headline figure blew away forecasts for a surplus of A$53 million following the upwardly revised A$171 million surplus in April (originally A$28 million).