Press review - page 625

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Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2018-10-30 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 135.3
  • forecast data is 136.3
  • actual data is 137.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased again in October, following a modest improvement in September. The Index now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 169.4 to 172.8. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 112.5 last month to 114.6 this month."

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH H4: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Nikkei 225 - weekly breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Nikkei 225 chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Nikkei 225 fell very sharply though October, as did many other global indexes, as a wave of trade-inspired risk aversion took its toll. The Tokyo stock benchmark is now more than 2,500 points below its 2018 peak, which was the 24,441 reached on October 1. However, the point at which its fall has so far halted is an interesting one. The 20,767.6 level reached in intraday trade on October 29 and 26 is just about exactly the second, 28.3% Fibonacci retracement of the rise up to this year's highs from the lows of June 2016."
  • "That level has survived two downside tests in the past week and seems to be providing strong support.
    Still, the Nikkei remains under near-term pressure for as long as it remains within the daily chart downtrend channel which has contained trade on the way down from October's peaks."
  • "At present, it is threatening to break above it, but has yet to do so conclusively. If it can on a daily or weekly closing basis then the bulls can once again dream of consolidating within the old range shown on the chart above. From there they might be able to build a platform from which to take on those highs again."

---------------- 

The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

 

GOLD (XAU/USD) - daily bullish ranging; weekly bear market rally to be started; 1,243 is the key (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Today’s upside price move in gold, already up over $18 (+1.5%), sets up a real potential for a move to near $1300 before the end of November.  We have been advising our followers that a strong potential for an upside move in the precious metals markets was likely and that a potential move to above $1300 was in the works prior to the end of 2018."
  • "Global economic concerns and the fact that global central banks are accumulating physical gold are putting pricing pressures on Gold and many of the other precious metals.  This is a sleeper trade in many ways, the US equity markets and the US Dollar are much stronger than many expected.  A true capital shift is taking place throughout the globe at the moment and many foreign nations and central banks are hedging risk by accumulating physical gold.  When the price of Gold does really start to move higher, it could be an explosive move to the upside – just like what happened back in 2005~2008 and 2009~2012."
  • "Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting Gold could rally to above $1500 /oz in 2019 and we believe the current price levels are a gift for traders.  Sub $1300 price levels may be the lowest prices we see for quite a while – don’t miss this opportunity to position your portfolio for this next move."

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 
Gold Sets Up For A November 2018 Rally To Near $1300
Gold Sets Up For A November 2018 Rally To Near $1300
  • www.thetechnicaltraders.com
Today’s upside price move in gold, already up over $18 (+1.5%), sets up a real potential for a move to near $1300 before the end of November. We have been advising our followers that a strong potential for an upside move in the precious metals markets was likely and that a potential move to above $1300 was in the works prior to the end of 2018...
 

Apple - daily ranging to bullish; weekly ranging bullish; 233 is the key (based on the article)

Apple share weekly price by Metatrader 5

  • "Apple is the latest big tech stock to get smacked after reporting earnings. Shares of Apple plunged 7% in after-hours trading after the company beat on both the top and bottom line. The tech giant reported revenue of $62.9 billion and $2.91 per share in profit last quarter, beating expectations of $61.41 billion and $2.79, respectively."
  • "Apple also beat the so-called whisper number of $2.90 per share but the stock is down because the company lowered guidance for the busy Q4 holiday shopping season and cited soft demand from emerging markets."
  • "We are entering the busy Q4 holiday shopping season but the company lowered guidance and that hurt the stock. Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, said he is "seeing some macroeconomic weakness in some of the emerging markets," without specifying which ones. Tim Cook also emphasized that Apple was happy with its performance in China, where revenue grew 16 percent to $11.4 billion. That was the fifth consecutive quarter of growth where the company enjoyed double-digit growth in China."

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 
 

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision, RBA Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-11-06 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "The Australian economy is performing well. Over the past year, GDP increased by 3.4 per cent and the unemployment rate declined to 5 per cent, the lowest in six years. The forecasts for economic growth in 2018 and 2019 have been revised up a little. The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3½ per cent over these two years, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy, as is growth in resource exports. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. The drought has led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector."
  • "Inflation remains low and stable. Over the past year, CPI inflation was 1.9 per cent and, in underlying terms, inflation was 1¾ per cent. These outcomes were in line with the Bank's expectations and were influenced by declines in some administered prices due to changes in government policies. Inflation is expected to pick up over the next couple of years, with the pick-up likely to be gradual. The central scenario is for inflation to be 2¼ per cent in 2019 and a bit higher in the following year."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Interest Rate Decision news event 

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Interest Rate Decision news event

==========

The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases
Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases
  • 2018.11.06
  • www.rba.gov.au
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The global economic expansion is continuing. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. Growth in China has slowed a little, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close...
 

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Jobless Rate and range price movement 

2018-11-06 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarters.

==========

From official report :

  • "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in the September 2018 quarter, Stats NZ said today. This is down from 4.4 percent last quarter and is the lowest unemployment rate since the June 2008 quarter, when it was 3.8 percent."
  • "The fall in the unemployment rate in the latest quarter reflected a fall in the number of unemployed people (down 13,000) and a strong rise in employment (up 29,000). This quarter’s employment rate rose to 68.3 percent, the highest rate since the series began more than 30 years ago."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Jobless Rate news event 

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Jobless Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 

Unemployment rate falls to 3.9 percent | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in the September 2018 quarter.
 

Crude Oil - weekly breakdown; monthly ranging to the bearish reversal; 63.17 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish breakdown with the possible bearish reversal: the price is breaking 70.28 support level to below for ranging market condition to be started. The price is breaking Senkou Span A line to go to inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition.
if the price breaks key support level at 63.17 on close weekly bar so the bearish reversal will be finished and we will see the bearish market condition to be established for Brent Crude Oil in the medium-term situation.

Long-term (MN1)/medium-term (W1) analysis: watch the price to cross 63.17 support level to below for the bearish market condition to be reversed, otherwise - the price will be on the randing condition within Ichimoku cloud.

Crude Oil Weekly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The long-term trend in oil is down and it has been since the pre-recession peak up near 150 in early 2008. Since then, it's been unable to move higher than that top. The direction of the line connecting that 2008 peak with the lower 2013/2014 peaks is unmistakably downward."
  • "The uptrend line connecting the low in 2016 to the 2017 low has been broken. Oil has closed below that trend line for 2 weeks in a row now -- and it's back inside the Ichimoku cloud range."
  • "It's that unrelenting selling, day after day, in October that's reversed the weekly trend and has reverted price direction back to the longer-term pattern seen on the monthly chart."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

 

Crude Oil - Will Oil Find Support Near $60? (based on the article)

Crude Oil Weekly AscTrend Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "We believe the support near $65, although clearly broken, may eventually become resistance for a future upside price move. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a new target near $52~53 and we believe this downside move in Oil is far from over at this point."
  • "The current global climate for Oil is that suppliers are pumping more and more oil into the market at a time when, historically, prices should continue to decline. One of our research tools includes the ability to identify overall bias models for each week, month or quarter. Historically, Oil is dramatically weaker in the month of November and relatively flat for the month of December."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 

Will Oil Find Support Near $60?
Will Oil Find Support Near $60?
  • www.thetechnicaltraders.com
Our research team warned of this move in Crude Oil back on October 7, 2018. At that time, we warned that Oil may follow a historical price pattern, moving dramatically lower and that lows near $65 may become the ultimate bottom for that move. Here we are with a price below that level and many are asking “where will it go from here?”. We believe...
 

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and range price movement 

2018-11-14 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Industrial production in China was up 5.9 percent on year in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. That exceeded expectation for 5.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the September reading."
  • "The bureau also said that retail sales climbed 8.6 percent on year - missing forecasts for a gain of 9.2 percent, which again would have been unchanged from the previous month."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Industrial Production news event 

USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Industrial Production news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2018-11-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

Dollar Index M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

============

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 
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