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Gold Lower, Hits 7-Week Low & Closes at Technically Bearish Monthly Low Close
Gold prices ended the U.S. day session lower, near the daily low, hit a seven-week low and also closed at a technically bearish monthly low close on this last trading day of the month and the quarter. The gold bulls are in a real funk at present. Not even dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at a speech Monday could help out the beleaguered yellow metal. June gold was last down $9.90 at $1,284.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $10.30 at $1,285.00. May Comex silver last traded down $0.04 at $19.75 an ounce.
Yellen spoke at a gathering in Chicago and said the U.S. central bank needs to keep interest rates extremely low to prop up the still very shaky U.S. jobs market. Traders and investors are awaiting a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due out this week, capped by the jobs report on Friday.
In overnight news, the annual inflation rate in the European Union rose by 0.5%, year-on-year, which is the lowest rate since 2009. This reading is well below the 2% annual inflation target set by the European Central Bank. The latest inflation report is another clue the ECB will implement more monetary policy stimulus at some point soon. The ECB holds its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday, including a press conference by ECB president Mario Draghi. Market expectations are that the ECB will not change its monetary policy at Thursday’s meeting.
Russia’s annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine remains a geopolitical tension, but not quite a front-burner markets issue at this time. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with the Russian foreign minister during the weekend, but little progress was made, reports said.
The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,291.75 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,294.75.
Technically, June gold futures prices closed nearer the session low Monday and scored a bearish monthly low close. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently, including more Monday. Prices are in a steep three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,290.00 and then at $1,300.00. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $1,283.10 and then at $1,275.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
May silver futures prices closed near the session low Monday. Prices are hovering near a seven-week low. Prices are also in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.63 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $20.01 and then at $20.25. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $19.575 and then at $19.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
May N.Y. copper closed down 125 points at 302.90 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a three-week high early on. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 310.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 287.70 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 305.00 cents and then at 306.00 cents. First support is seen at 300.00 cents and then at 298.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are pushing higher as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A break above resistance at 100.83, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, has exposed the 38.2% level at 102.87. Pushing further above that aims for the 50% Fib at 104.52. Alternatively, a move back below 100.83 exposes the 14.6% expansion at 99.57.
2014-04-01 03:30 GMT (or 05:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Cash Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia Retains Record Low Interest Rate
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate unchanged at a record low on Tuesday as policymakers viewed that a period of stability in interest rates is likely to be the most prudent course.
The monetary board led by Governor Glenn Stevens decided to maintain the cash rate at 2.50 percent as widely expected by economists.
The RBA has reduced the cash rate by a cumulative 225 basis points since November 2011 to help the economy sustain demand in areas outside the resources sector in view of fading support from the mining boom.
Stevens said last week there is encouraging early evidence that the so-called 'handover' from mining-led demand growth to broader private demand growth is beginning.
Today RBA said resources sector investment spending is set to decline significantly and, at this stage, signs of improvement in investment intentions in other sectors are only tentative. Public spending is expected to be subdued.
According to the central bank's assessment, the decline in the exchange rate from its highs a year ago will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy.
The bank expects inflation to be consistent with the 2-3 percent target over the next two years. The board judged that monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.
According to policymakers, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand, and help growth to strengthen over time.
2014-04-01 07:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
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Spanish Manufacturing Sector Maintains Momentum
Spain's manufacturing sector maintained growth momentum in March with rates of expansion in both output and new orders accelerating from February, data from Markit Economics showed Tuesday.
The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.8 in March from 52.5 in February. The reading pointed to a fourth consecutive monthly strengthening of business conditions.
Total new orders rose at the sharpest pace in almost four years in March. With new orders continuing to rise, manufacturing firms in Spain increased their production levels.
Staffing levels were broadly unchanged, however, following modest rises in the previous two months. Input costs decreased for the second time in the past three months during March. In turn, firms lowered their prices charged.
"The recent pick-up in the Spanish manufacturing sector continued in March, finishing off a solid first quarter," Andrew Harker, senior economist at Markit and author of the report, said.
Sharper rises in both new and existing orders suggest that further growth of output is likely in the near-term, added Harker.
2014-04-01 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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U.K. Manufacturing Growth Eases To 8-Month Low
The U.K. manufacturing sector growth slowed unexpectedly to an eight-month low in March, survey data from Markit Economics showed Tuesday.
The seasonally adjusted Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply Purchasing Manager's Index fell to 55.3 in March from 56.2 in February, signaling a further cooling of growth from the peaks scaled towards the end of last year.
The score was forecast to rise to 56.7 in March. Nonetheless, the above neutral 50 reading indicates expansion in the sector.
Manufacturers continued to scale up production at a solid clip in March. However, rates of increase for output and new business cooled further from the highs registered during the second half of last year.
Manufacturing employment increased for the eleventh consecutive month in March with the rate of jobs growth staying close to February's near three-year high.
March data signaled a moderation in price pressures. Average input costs fell for the first time in over one-and-a-half years and output charge inflation eased to a seven-month low.
Investors Sue 12 Banks, Allege Conspiracy to Rig Forex Markets
A dozen large investors filed a joint lawsuit against 12 banks for allegedly conspiring to rig global foreign-exchange prices, according to a new consolidated complaint.
The class-action lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in the Southern District of New York late Monday, was from a group of investors across the U.S. and Caribbean, including city and state pension plans.
They accused the banks of communicating "with one another, including in chat rooms, via instant messages, and by emails, to carry out their conspiracy," and for rigging foreign-exchange rates as far back as January 2003, the lawsuit said.
The banks sued were the following :
Representatives for these banks either declined to comment or couldn't be reached.
The private lawsuits follow an international regulatory probe into the manipulation of currency markets and constitute the latest headache for several major banks that have been scrutinized for their conduct relating to everything from global interest-rate benchmarks to credit derivatives trading.
Big banks embroiled in the forex probes have suspended or fired more than 20 traders, mostly in New York and London. Earlier this month, BNP and BofA became the latest to suspend staff. The Bank of England has suspended a staff member relating to the probe.
The investors behind the consolidated lawsuit are: Aureus Currency Fund LP, a Santa Rosa, Calif., investment fund; the City of Philadelphia and its board of pensions and retirement; the Employees' Retirement System for the Government of the Virgin Islands; the Employees' Retirement System of Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority; Fresno County Employees' Retirement Association; Haverhill Retirement System for the city of Haverhill, Mass.; Oklahoma Firefighters Pension and Retirement System; State-Boston Retirement System; Tiberius OC Fund, a Cayman Islands fund; Value Recovery Fund LLC, a Delaware fund with offices in Connecticut; Syena Global Emerging Markets Fund LP, a hedge fund in Connecticut; and the United Food and Commercial Workers Union.
In the complaint, the investors accused the banks of controlling foreign-exchange rates via a "small and close-knit group of traders." They alleged it became possible for banks to rig the market because the traders "have strong ties formed by working with one another in prior trading positions" and by in many cases living "in the same neighborhoods in the Essex countryside just northeast of London's financial district."
"They belong to the same social clubs, golf together, dine together and sit on many of the same charity boards," the complaint adds.
All of the investors had previously filed individual claims in recent months, before their claims were consolidated into the group lawsuit.
The damages the investors are seeking were unspecified in the complaint.
2014-04-01 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Manufacturing Activity Expands At Slightly Faster Rate In March
Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at a slightly faster rate in the month of March, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday, although the index of activity in the sector rose by a little less than expected.
The ISM said its purchasing managers index crept up to 53.7 in March from 53.2 in February, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the manufacturing sector. Economists had expected the index to climb to a reading of 54.0.
Bradley Holcomb, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said, "Several comments from the panel reflect favorable demand and good business conditions, with some lingering concerns about the particularly adverse weather conditions across the country."
The modest increase by the headline index was partly due to a substantial rebound in production, as the production index surged up to 55.9 in March after tumbling to 48.2 in February.
The ISM said the sharp jump by the production index reflects the largest month-over-month increase since June of 2009.
George W Bush Says Average Investors Need an Automated Trading System
He mentions that traders and investors need a level playing field to be successful and the only way to do this is with the use of an automated trading system.