Press review - page 617

[nomasonto7812]

I want to trade 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - daily bullish breakout (based on the article) 

• "Despite persistent media fears about a trade war being the death of the global economy, spot and option trades around USD/JPY are seeing blue (or green) skis ahead. The Yen, typically a barometer of risk sentiment and seen as a bit of a haven asset, continues to weaken and fell to the lowest levels against the USD on Wednesday since early January. In alignment with a higher spot USDJPY was the US Treasury 2-year yields. The US PPI final figures showed the highest demand since 2011."
• "FX traders tend to become accustomed to looking at JPY crosses the first time anything seen as negative emerges in the media. Therefore, when news emerged about the initiation of a Trade War as US President Trump began tariffs on China, the initial thought was likely that USD/JPY was going to respond by falling from Trendline resistance. However, the Japan economy is undoubtedly an export economy. A key part of Abenomics was to encourage inflation through increased business activity that was helped by a weak though this was not outright stated."
• "The problem, as outline by Vincent Cignarella of Bloomberg is that the two largest customers of Japan's goods are the two countries taking the headlines as the key players in the trade war. At the same time, yen strength has been absent and likely for good reason."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Double Smoothed Stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Vindison Nick]

How safe is the trading platform and do it work.

[Sergey Golubev]

Vindison Nick:
How safe is the trading platform and do it work.

For newbies - 

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Key post with all the links
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/9950/page108#comment_5847752 

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Where Do I start from?
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/212020 
MetaTrader 5 Help - Trading Platform — User Manual 

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[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2018-07-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

• "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

[franko88]

Thanks for your analysis Sergey!

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - oil/gold price ratio (based on the article) 

• "When taking a glance at the performance of investments in stocks, currencies, and commodities -- which is compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the second quarter of 2018 -- one is struck by the fact that all of the top five performers were commodities. Lean hogs took the top honors, followed by crude oil."
• "Crude’s position didn’t surprise me. Way back in February 2016 -- when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $26/bbl. -- I was confident that crude oil would make a relentless climb. How could I have been so confident then, and confident now, that today’s WTI price of $69.50/bbl. will climb to $75/bbl. by year’s end?"
• "To answer these questions, we must have a model -- a way of thinking about the problem. In this case, the starting point is Roy W. Jastram’s classic study, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007. In that work, Jastram finds that gold maintains its purchasing power over long periods of time, with the prices of other commodities adapting to the price of gold."
• "In support of this model, it is worth pointing out that a free-market economic system is an organism, and operates as such. Each organism is organized to maintain a certain “state” of homeostatis, to borrow a term from physiology. Any disturbance from the equilibrium sets in motion behavior within the organism which tends to re-establish the desired state of equilibrium. For example, the human body has a complex physiochemical equilibrium, which involves, among other things, a constant body temperature. If the equilibrium is disturbed, the body acts to restore the homeostatis or equilibrium."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - daily bullish breakout; weekly bullish reversa; 95.25 is the key (based on the article) 

• "As the US Dollar basket yet again approaches the 95.00 handle, eyes are back on the familiar resistance, which has previously capped its rise. This is situated at 95.20, which had curbed further gains for the DXY on June 21st and 28th. The question is, will it hold again?"
• "Trend signals suggest that there is scope for additional gains in the USD. RSI indicators on a daily timeframe is just shy of moving into the overbought area, subsequently, signalling that a continued USD rise will likely be limited. Alongside this, momentum indicators have moved into positive territory, showing slightly positive signs, however, progress is needed."
• "Short term resistance at the 94.76 level, which marks the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement level of the 94.20-93.33 fall is holding up for now. However, a break above this could set the DXY on course for a retest of the June double top."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Double Smoothed Stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bearish ot be resumed; weekly bearish reversal soon (based on the article) 

• "The last few days brought with them the potential for yet another test of major support in the low-11500s, an area EUR/USD has held on three occasions since late-May. Will it hold, fold, or was Friday's decline and recovery the carving out of a higher-low from not so obvious support? There is a trend-line from January 2017 running through the bottom of recent price action which also coincides with a lower parallel on the 4-hr chart, this could provide the means to put in place a higher low. However, a break below the lower-parallel/trend-line and an important test of big-picture support will likely develop."
• "If a higher-low has in fact developed as of Friday, or very close to doing so, then a move higher next week could gain traction. But the euro has its work cut out for it if this is the case, with an upward hill to climb. On a decline down to around 11500 the market will test buyers' resolve. A fourth hold will keep the euro buoyed, and bring to light the distinct possibility of a descending wedge formation maturing in the days/weeks ahead. A break below key support will have price resuming its downhill roll from the spring"
• "Whether we are in for a higher-low, a test and hold of the low-11500s, or breakdown in the week ahead, it looks like it could be another important stretch of days. Or, the euro may be in for some summer doldrums and bounce around with little conviction in either direction."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Double Smoothed Stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "The overhang of Brexit continues to provide an uncertain outlook for the Pound. The initial response to PM May’s soft Brexit proposal had seemingly placed GBP on a firm footing. However, this was quickly reversal after the proposal led to the resignation of key MPs in PM May’s cabinet, most notably, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit Minister David Davis, consequently placing on Sterling as the risk of a no Brexit deal scenario had increased. It will be another critical week for UK politics, as the customs and trade bills proposed in the White Paper will face a vote in parliament at the beginning of the week. The customs bill will likely face the hardest challenge of passing, given that Tory hard-liners have already touted several amendments for the bill."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.