Press review - page 299

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NZD/USD forecast for the week of March 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair tried to break out during the course of the week, but turned back around at the 0.76 level. With that, the New Zealand dollar should continue to go lower given enough time and we believe that a move below the 0.75 level since this market looking for the 0.72 level. Ultimately, we believe that the New Zealand dollar will continue to suffer at the hands of the US dollar, and a softer than expected commodity markets. Because of this, we believe that this market will in fact break down, and it will more than likely break down below the recent lows and head to the 0.70 level as well. We think that rallies continue to offer selling opportunities as well, as we see a significant amount of resistance above.

The area above the shooting star shows all kinds of resistance, and as a result we think that it’s not until we get well above the 0.80 level that we can even remotely think about buying. If we do see that, this market should continue to go much higher and at that point in time we feel that it would be a bit of a trend change going forward.

Remember that the Royal Bank of New Zealand has recently stated that the level that they are comfortable with in this particular market as the 0.68 level, as it is now considered to be “fair value.” Ultimately, there will always be the threat of the Royal Bank of New Zealand getting involved in the market yet again, selling off the Kiwi dollar like it did a couple of months ago.

Because of this, we feel that the New Zealand dollar will continue to have a bit of a black cloud above it, and with that we have no interest whatsoever in buying. We believe that both short-term and long-term traders will continue to apply pressure to the Kiwi dollar going forward, and therefore we expect quite a bit of selling opportunities over the course of the next several weeks.


 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of March 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, testing the 1.48 level on the bottom, and the 1.50 level on the top. We believe that this market will eventually break down though, so a move below the 1.48 level is the signal that we need to see in order to start selling yet again. At that point in time, we feel that the market will then go down to the 1.45 handle, and then perhaps the 1.40 level. We have no interest in buying at all.


 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of March 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see struggled at the 1.10 handle. This is an area that continues offer resistance, and the fact that we pulled back to form a shooting star of course is a very negative sign. If we can break down below the bottom of the shooting star, we feel that the market then heads to the 1.05 handle. Below there, we go to the parity level, but we are not quite ready to do that yet and we feel that the return trip is about to start this week.


 

Forex Technical Analysis: EURUSD Ending the week higher but neutral technically


 

Forex - Weekly outlook: March 30 - April 3 (based on investing.com article)

The dollar ended the week lower against a basket of other major currencies on Friday as a lukewarm report on U.S. economic growth and comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen weighed.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and below economists’ forecasts for an upward revision to 2.4%.

Another report showed that the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to 93.0 this month from a final reading of 95.4 in February.

The dollar showed little reaction after Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck a cautious note on interest rates. In a speech, the Fed chief said a rate hike may be warranted later this year, but added that weakening inflation pressures could force the Fed to delay.

The speech echoed the Fed’s latest policy statement, released on March 18, which indicated that it may raise interest rates more gradually than markets had expected.

EUR/USD was little changed at 1.089 late Friday and ended the week with gains of 0.6%.

USD/JPY was flat at 119.14 to end the week down 0.74%, while USD/CHF was steady at 0.9624.

The pound pushed higher with GBP/USD up 0.29% to 1.4893 in late trade.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 0.66%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing the U.S. employment report for February, due out on Friday and Monday’s data on personal spending for further indications on the path of monetary policy. Tuesday’s euro zone inflation report will also be closely watched.

Monday, March 30

  • Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production.
  • In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation.
  • Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
  • The U.K. is to produce data on net lending.
  • Canada is to release data on raw material price inflation.
  • The U.S. is to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

Tuesday, March 31

  • New Zealand is to produce reports on building consents and business confidence.
  • Japan is to report on average cash earnings.
  • The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and the monthly employment report. Germany is to report on retail sales and the unemployment rate.
  • The U.K. is to produce data on the current account.
  • Canada is to publish its monthly report on gross domestic product.
  • The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 1

  • Japan is to publish the results of the Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes.
  • Australia is to release data on building approvals.
  • China is to publish its official manufacturing index.
  • The U.K. is to release survey data on manufacturing activity.
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report, which outlines private sector jobs growth, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Thursday, April 2

  • Australia is to release data on the trade balance.
  • The U.K. is to release survey data on construction activity.
  • Both Canada and the U.S. are to report on their trade balances. The U.S. is also to release data on initial jobless claims and factory orders.

Friday, April 3

  • Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the U.K., U.S. and Canada will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be a closely watched government report on non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings.
 

USD/JPY weekly outlook: March 30 - April 3 (based on investing.com article)

The dollar ended the week lower against the yen on Friday as lackluster U.S. economic reports, including on economic growth and cautious comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen weighed.

USD/JPY was almost unchanged for the day at 119.14 in late trade and ended the week down 0.74%.

Sentiment on the dollar was hit after data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy grew slightly less than forecast in the fourth quarter and another report showing that consumer sentiment deteriorated this month.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and below economists’ forecasts for an upward revision to 2.4%.

Another report showed that the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to 93.0 this month from a final reading of 95.4 in February.

The dollar remained subdued after Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck a cautious note on interest rates. In a speech on Friday, the Fed chief said a rate hike may be warranted later this year, but added that weakening inflation pressures could force the Fed to delay.

The speech echoed the Fed’s latest policy statement, released on March 18, which indicated that it may raise interest rates more gradually than markets had expected.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 0.66%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing the U.S. employment report for February, due out on Friday and Monday’s data on personal spending for further indications on the path of monetary policy.

Monday, March 30

  • Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production.
  • The U.S. is to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

Tuesday, March 31

  • Japan is to report on average cash earnings.
  • The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 1

  • Japan is to publish the results of the Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes.
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report, which outlines private sector jobs growth, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Thursday, April 2

  • The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, initial jobless claims and factory orders.

Friday, April 3

  • Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the U.K., U.S. and Canada will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be a closely watched government report on non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings.
 

AUD/USD weekly outlook: March 30 - April 3 (based on investing.com article)

The Australian dollar fell almost 1% against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as traders digested the latest spate of U.S. economic data in their quest to gauge the timing of a future rate hike.

AUD/USD hit an intraday low of 0.7746, the weakest level since March 20, before settling at 0.7756 by close of trade, down 0.93%. For the week, the pair declined 0.28%.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and below economists’ forecasts for an upward revision to 2.4%.

Another report showed that the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to 93.0 this month from a final reading of 95.4 in February.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen struck a cautious note on interest rates on Friday.

In a speech, the Fed chief said a rate hike may be warranted later this year, but added that weakening inflation pressures could force the Fed to delay.

The speech echoed the Fed’s latest policy statement, released on March 18, which indicated that it may raise interest rates more gradually than markets had expected.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.1% to 97.65 on Friday. For the week, the index lost 0.66%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

Despite recent losses, the greenback looks likely to continue to strengthen, with the Fed still expected to raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market.

Monday, March 30

  • The U.S. is to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

Tuesday, March 31

  • The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 1

  • China is to publish its official manufacturing index. The Asian nation is Australia's largest trade partner.
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report, which outlines private sector jobs growth, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Thursday, April 2

  • Australia is to release data on the trade balance.
  • The U.S. is to release data on weekly initial jobless claims, as well as reports on the trade balance and factory orders.

Friday, April 3

  • Markets in Australia will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be a closely watched government report on non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings.
 

GBP/USD weekly outlook: March 30 - April 3 (based on investing.com article)

The pound moved higher against the softer dollar on Friday after lackluster U.S. economic reports and cautious remarks on interest rates by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

GBP/USD was up 0.29% to 1.4893 in late trade.

Sentiment on the dollar was hit after data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy grew slightly less than forecast in the fourth quarter and another report showing that consumer sentiment deteriorated this month.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and below economists’ forecasts for an upward revision to 2.4%.

Another report showed that the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to 93.0 this month from a final reading of 95.4 in February.

The dollar remained subdued after Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck a cautious note on interest rates. In a speech on Friday, the Fed chief said a rate hike may be warranted later this year, but added that weakening inflation pressures could force the Fed to delay.

The speech echoed the Fed’s latest policy statement, released on March 18, which indicated that it may raise interest rates more gradually than markets had expected.

Sterling received a boost after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the next move in interest rates is going to be up. The remarks came during a panel discussion at a Bundesbank conference in Frankfurt.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 0.66%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing the U.S. employment report for February, due out on Friday and Monday’s data on personal spending for further indications on the path of monetary policy.

U.K. data on manufacturing and construction sector activity will also be closely watched.

Monday, March 30

  • The U.K. is to produce data on net lending.
  • The U.S. is to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

Tuesday, March 31

  • The U.K. is to produce data on the current account.
  • The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 1

  • The U.K. is to release survey data on manufacturing activity.
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report, which outlines private sector jobs growth, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Thursday, April 2

  • The U.K. is to release survey data on construction activity.
  • The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, initial jobless claims and factory orders.

Friday, April 3

  • Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the U.K., U.S. and Canada will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be a closely watched government report on non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings.
 

EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 30 - April 3 (based on investing.com article)

The euro ended the week higher against the softer dollar on Friday, following lukewarm U.S. economic reports, including on economic growth, and cautious sounding comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

EUR/USD was little changed at 1.089 late Friday and ended the week with gains of 0.6%.

Sentiment on the dollar was hit after data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy grew slightly less than forecast in the fourth quarter and another report showing that consumer sentiment deteriorated this month.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and below economists’ forecasts for an upward revision to 2.4%.

Another report showed that the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to 93.0 this month from a final reading of 95.4 in February.

The dollar remained subdued after Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck a cautious note on interest rates. In a speech on Friday, the Fed chief said a rate hike may be warranted later this year, but added that weakening inflation pressures could force the Fed to delay.

The speech echoed the Fed’s latest policy statement, released on March 18, which indicated that it may raise interest rates more gradually than markets had expected.

In the euro zone, Greece put forward new reform plans for approval late Friday, as part of a bailout extension review.

Officials from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank were to examine the measures after earlier proposals were not accepted.

Elsewhere, EUR/JPY was little changed at 129.73 late Friday.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 0.66%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing the U.S. employment report for February, due out on Friday and Monday’s data on personal spending for further indications on the path of monetary policy.

Tuesday’s euro zone inflation report will also be closely watched.

Monday, March 30

  • Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production.
  • In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation.
  • The U.S. is to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

Tuesday, March 31

  • The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and the monthly employment report. Germany is to report on retail sales and the unemployment rate.
  • The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 1

  • The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report, which outlines private sector jobs growth, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Thursday, April 2

  • The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, initial jobless claims and factory orders.

Friday, April 3

  • Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the U.K., U.S. and Canada will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be a closely watched government report on non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings.
 

Goldman Sachs says EUR/USD to fall on continued portfolio rebalancing flows (based on forexlive article)

  • "We continue to expect the EUR to weaken vs the USD over the coming quarters, due to both US cyclical strength and continued QE-driven portfolio rebalancing outflows from the Euro area."
  • "As the Fed continues to dismantle forward guidance, the ECB has moved in the opposite direction"
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