Press review - page 634

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin China Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2019-03-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 48.3
• forecast data is 48.5
• actual data is 49.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

• "The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered only fractionally below the neutral 50.0 mark at 49.9 in February, to signal broadly stable operating conditions. Notably, the reading was up from January’s recent low of 48.3, to mark its highest level in three months."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/AUD - Brexit Referendum Levels for the Long-Term Bullish Reversal; 1.8728 is the key (based on the article)

• "The Aussie pair that arguably made the most amount of progress last week, rising almost 2%, was GBP/AUD. It added to an impressive bullish push that began two weeks ago, as anticipated. Yet, it was unable to push beyond critical resistance at 1.8732. In addition to this past week, this area was tested back in October and then in early January. It is preventing GBP/AUD from achieving its highest daily close since June 2016, the month of the Brexit Referendum.."
• "Arguably, sustaining this momentum should require major fundamental support. But there are numerous uncertainties that remain for the British Pound ahead as pushing back the divorce would continue keeping the markets in suspense. Meanwhile, the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar is being primarily driven by volatile risk trends.."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) - weekly correction to the possible bearish reversal; 1276 is the key (based on the article)

• "From a technical perspective, gold was likely due for a noticeable pullback judging by the red-hot relative strength index (RSI). The RSI has been increasingly sending an ‘overbought’ signal due to the 13 percent runup in the commodity since bottoming August of last year. As such, the selling in gold could be viewed as a healthy ‘reversion to the mean’ with prices consolidating back towards its moving average."
• "Although, gold bulls were likely disappointed after the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement line – which rests around the psychological $1,300 support level – did not hold with prices breaking below this consolidation area. This may have soured sentiment further and induced additional selling as short-term momentum traders react to the apparent end of gold’s parabolic ascent."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template).

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Current Account and range price movement 

2019-03-05 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Current Account]

• past data is -10.8B
• forecast data is -9.3B
• actual data is -7.2B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

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From official report :

• "The current account deficit, seasonally adjusted, fell $3,582m to $7,203m in the December quarter 2018. The balance on goods and services surplus rose $2,661m to $8,425m. The primary income deficit fell $848m to $15,318m."
• "In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the surplus on goods and services fell $781m from $2,022m in the September quarter 2018 to $1,241m in the December quarter 2018. This is expected to detract 0.2 percentage points from growth in the December quarter 2018 volume measure of GDP."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Current Account news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Dow Jones Industrial Average - weekly bullish ranging near bearish reversal; 26,250 level is the key for the bullish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

• "Our researchers believe the NQ and YM chart illustrates a very different dynamic which is currently at play in the US Stock Markets.  The NQ, the Technology heavy NASDAQ futures, appears to have stalled near the 75% Fibonacci price retracement level whereas the YM, the Blue Chip heavy DOW futures, has already rallied past this level and is setting up a “double top” formation near 26268.  It is our belief that the US Stock Markets are already nearing an intermediate top rotation price area and that traders need to actively protect their long trades/profits right away.  We believe a downside price rotation may take place very quickly over the next 5~10+ days and that the markets may rotate downward by a minimum of 4~6% in what we are calling a “momentum rotation setup”."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish reversal; daily bullish ranging near bearish reversal

2019-03-06 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -8.6M
• forecast data is 1.2M
• actual data is 7.1M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.1 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bullish reversal. The price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for 65.81 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.

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Crude Oil Daily: ranging bullish. Daily price is on ranging market condition located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart within 67.69 resistance level for the daily bullish trend to be continuing and 64.29 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

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Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - How Litecoin Prices Doubled This Year (based on the article)

• "Litecoin prices have climbed sharply this year, producing notable gains as the digital currency benefits from strong fundamentals and favorable market conditions. The cryptocurrency, which is very similar to bitcoin, reached $56.27 today, according to CoinMarketCap."
• "At this point, the digital currency was up more than 84% since the start of 2019, having reached its highest level since October, additional CoinMarketCap data reveal."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

How to use PPI in Forex Trading (based on the article)

PPI is an important piece of economic data due to its signaling effect on future expected inflation. Traders monitor PPI in forex trading because of the positive relationship between inflation and interest rates, but ultimately, traders are concerned with how the resultant interest rate changes are likely to affect currency pairs. Continue reading to learn more about the PPI index and how it affects the foreign exchange market.

What is PPI and what does it measure?

PPI stands for Producer Price Index and measures the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. PPI data represents the monthly change in the average price of a basket of goods purchased by manufacturers. 

How is PPI calculated?

PPI examines three production areas; commodity-based, industrial-based, and stage-of-processing-based companies. Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI is created using data collected from a mailed survey of retailers selected via a process of systematic sampling of all firms listed with the Unemployment Insurance System.
Traders can see changes in PPI expressed as a percentage change from the previous year, or on a month to month basis.

PPI and inflation

A positive change in the PPI index implies that costs are rising and, in the end, price increases get passed down to consumers. If this effect is large enough, there will be an increase in future CPI figures to reflect that the general level of prices has increased.

How does PPI impact currencies?

When it comes to money there is always a trade-off: individuals can save money and earn interest, or they can spend money immediately and forgo any interest payments. 
If PPI is on the rise it may cause the interest rates to rise. When interest rates go up, electing to save money looks more attractive as the reward (interest) is greater than before. Spending money becomes costlier because consumers would effectively be losing out on the higher interest rate when they choose to spend money instead of saving. As a result, increased PPI may filter down into increased rates and a stronger currency.

How PPI affects the US dollar

The Producer Price Index tends to have little effect on the US dollar initially. This is because in the real economy there is a time lag between the increase in prices from producers, and the end result of higher inflation resulting from consumers having to fork out more at the tills. 

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CHF: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

2019-03-07 12:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision]

• past data is 0.00%
• forecast data is 0.00%
• actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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From official report :

• "The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term."
• "A new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) will be launched, starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2021, each with a maturity of two years. These new operations will help to preserve favourable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy. Under TLTRO-III, counterparties will be entitled to borrow up to 30% of the stock of eligible loans as at 28 February 2019 at a rate indexed to the interest rate on the main refinancing operations over the life of each operation. Like the outstanding TLTRO programme, TLTRO-III will feature built-in incentives for credit conditions to remain favourable. Further details on the precise terms of TLTRO-III will be communicated in due course."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Decision news events

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USD/CHF: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Decision news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2019-03-08 03:17 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

• past data is 271B
• forecast data is 257B
• actual data is 34B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From freerepublic article :

• "China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February, customs data showed amid Beijing's trade dispute with the U.S." 
• "Dollar-denominated exports fell 20.7 percent for the month of February from a year ago, missing economists' expectations of a 4.8 percent decline, according to a Reuters poll. January exports rose 9.1 percent from a year ago. Dollar-denominated imports fell 5.2 percent in February from a year ago, missing economists' forecast of a 1.4 percent fall. January imports fell 1.5 percent on-year." 
• "China's February trade balance was also weaker than expected at $4.12 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had expected trade balance to come in at $26.38 billion. Trade balance in January was $39.16 billion."

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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event 

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5