Press review - page 629

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and S&P 500: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

2019-01-09 19:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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From rttnews article :

• "Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's latest meeting confirmed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks suggesting the central bank will take a patient approach to further interest rate increases. The minutes of the FOMC's December meeting showed participants saw the appropriate extent and timing of future rate hikes as less clear than earlier."
• "The Fed decided to raise rates by a quarter point at the meeting, but the minutes suggest volatility in financial markets and increased concerns about global economic growth have clouded the outlook for rates. "Against this backdrop, many participants expressed the view that, especially in an environment of muted inflation pressures, the Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming," the minutes said."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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S&P 500: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and range price movement 

2019-01-11 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report :

• "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in November 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in October 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in September 2018."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in November 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in October 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in September 2018."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Stock Market: Starbucks - Why I Recommended Selling It (based on the article)

• "The stock's price-to-earnings multiple is 19 which is comparable to that of the S&P 500. A company without a clear growth plan trading at a market multiple is not a compelling investment.  To be compelling, the stock would have to be a lot cheaper, or the CEO has put forth a credible plan to restore growth. Until then, there is no way Starbucks would not crack my top 20 stocks so I am comfortable that selling it is the right call."
• "Even if I were convinced that Starbucks was a top 20 stock, I would still recommend selling enough to bring the position down to 5% of her portfolio. Keeping 20% of the portfolio in any stock just to avoid the capital gains tax is a bad idea. There are cases where a stock is so compelling that I would be willing to let it be a 20% position. But the strongest case for Starbucks, as put forth by its CEO, falls far short of that."
• "Yes, it is still possible that Starbucks is a gem that all of my managers and I missed. I can live with that. There are plenty of other stocks with better chances of delivering a good return for investors."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Parliament Brexit Vote and range price movement 

2019-01-15 19:39 GMT | [GBP - Brexit Vote]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is [reject]
• actual data is [reject] according to the latest press release

[GBP - Brexit Vote] = UK Parliament votes to decide on passage of the deal triggering article 50 with European Union.

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From telegraph article :

• "Theresa May is battling on two fronts as the Prime Minister fights to retain her grip on power while attempting to find a Brexit compromise that could command majority support in the Commons."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Parliament Brexit Vote news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily bear market rally to the bullish reversal

2019-01-16 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -1.7M
• forecast data is -1.4M
• actual data is -2.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) - "We estimate Delivery Sales to reach about 8.6% of Total Revenue as of 2021" (based on the article)

The weekly share price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish market condition for the ranging within 190.8 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing and 169 support level for the secondary correction to the bearish reversal will be started.
Most likely scenario: bullish trend with ranging within the levels.

• "McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) reported a strong quarter Q3 beating consensus expectations, with revenues at $5.37 billion and earnings at $2.10 per share. Global comparable sales increased by 4.2%. The company’s long-term goal is for 95% of McDonald’s restaurants to be owned by franchisees and this is expected to be completed by the year 2021. This strategy has helped the company cut costs and thus improve margins, and consequently, their earnings. The company is expected to continue its strong performance for the 4th Quarter and finish the year strongly."
• "We estimate Delivery Sales to reach about 8.6% of Total Revenue as of 2021. This is on the back of the assumption that Delivery will be available in about 50% of the Total stores and it will contribute nearly 17% of the Revenue from that store. Thus, according to our estimates, Delivery Sales would be contributing approximately 9% of overall revenue by 2021."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bearish reversal; 1.1369 is the key (based on the article)

• "The Euro failed to make good on an attempted break higher from a range confining price action against the US Dollar since late October. The pair briefly breached resistance in the 1.1456-81 area but the upswing ran out of steam on a test of trend line resistance set from January 2018. A test of this barrier produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick, which was soon followed by a drop back into familiar territory."
• "Sellers are now eyeing counter-trend support guiding the upswing from lows set in mid-November. A daily close below this barrier – now at 1.1328 – would suggest the dominant long-term decline is ready to be reasserted. The first downside hurdle to follow is the November 12 low at 1.1216, followed by a support shelf in the 1.1110-32 zone."
• "The 1.1456-81 region is back as immediate resistance. Another foray above it would open the door for a test of 1.1554. This appears to be a pivotal spot for bears, marking the intersection of trend line resistance and a chart inflection area in play since November 2017. Establishing a foothold above this would go a long way toward de-fusing immediate selling pressure."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - breakout to the daily bullish reversal; 62.45 is the key (based on the article)

• "You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55~56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb."
• "Crude oil chart highlights the Fibonacci projected price zones that represent the incredibly strong resistance level currently setup in Crude. The Weekly chart shows a zone between $50~56 as a critical resistance zone. One key element of Fibonacci price theory is that price must always attempt to seek out new highs or new lows as it rotates. Thus, if this current upside move fails to establish new highs above this resistance zone, then it must move lower to attempt to establish new lows. This means the $40 price target is a very viable immediate objective."
• "Global demand for oil, as well as global economic data, could be key to understand the future demand and price for oil. At this point, a new upper fractal top formation will generate new Fibonacci price targets to the downside."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

How Stock Markets Affect the Forex Market (based on the article)

• "Many Forex traders focus too narrowly on the currency pair or pairs they are trading. While it is important to be focused on a short-term chart if you are trading something on a short-term time horizon, it can help your profitability a lot if you look at the market in a broader way, as part of your process of deciding which currency pair to trade, and in which direction. Although it is possible to do OK by only looking at the Forex market, you could do better by considering what is going on in stock and commodity markets too when you analyze the Forex market. One reason why would be if there were a statistical correlation between the movement of the stock market and certain currencies or commodities. Furthermore, if such correlations can be found, it might be that they become even stronger or weaker under particular market conditions. This should be useful information for Forex traders as it can be used to move the odds in their favor."
• "Correlation is simply the measurement of how much the prices of two different things have moved in the same direction over the same time. For example, if the prices of A and B always go up or down by the same percentage every day, completely in sync, then A and B would have a correlation coefficient of 1 (perfect positive correlation). If they always move in precisely the opposite directions by the same amount, they would have a correlation coefficient of -1 (perfect negative correlation). If there is no statistical relationship between the price movements of A and B at all, they will have a correlation coefficient of 0 (perfectly uncorrelated). I won't detail the full formula of how the correlation coefficient between two variables is calculated here: it is enough to note that when such a statistical relationship can be proven over a long time period, we may be able to say that this relationship is likely to continue for some time in the future. However, it is important to understand that there are times when market correlations seem to break down entirely, so it is probably best to use correlation as a filtering tool for trades and not as the basis of an entire trading strategy."
• "We can best illustrate the concept of using correlation between a stock market and currencies by taking the major U.S. stock market index, the S&P 500, which measures the valuation of the 500 largest publicly quoted U.S. companies by market capitalization and checking its statistical correlation with some Forex currency pairs which are priced in USD. That way, we can easily see the simple correlation between the non-USD currency and the stock market as measured by this index. As an additional step, we can also see whether the correlations were different during bear market periods, which are defined as the periods during which the market falls by at least 20% in value. Bull markets are defined as the periods during which the market rises by at least 20% in value."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MFCS Currency Correlation Chart - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - bear market rally to the bullish reversal; 1.31 is the key (based on the article)

• "GBPUSD has enjoyed a strong run in 2019, picking itself up from a 1.2435 low to touch the 1.3000 level on an improving fundamental backdrop. This year’s mini-rally now sees GBPUSD touching the 200-day moving average and Cable has failed at its first attempt to break and close above here. Another attempt is expected shortly and if successful, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3177 becomes the next target. This level also coincides with the November 7 high. If this level is closed above, the recent series of lower highs will be broken, adding an additional bullish nudge for the pair. GBPUSD have also made four higher lows in a row, so if 1.2832 – Thursday’s low - remains intact, the chart set-up for GBPUSD remains constructive."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following indicator:

• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5