EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 18.09 - 25.09: ranging correction to the possible daily bearish reversal

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 10:38

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 18 - September 25 (based on the article)

The US dollar had a positive week, resisting unconvincing data. Now comes the biggest test: the Fed decision. In addition, we have US Building Permits, rate decisions in Japan and in New Zealand, as well as other events. These are the main events for this week.

1. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of new residential permits is expected to rise to 1.17 million in August.
2. Stephen Poloz speaks: Tuesday, 17:45. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will speak in Quebec.
3. Japan rate decision: Wednesday.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
5. US Fed Decision: Wednesday: statement and projections at 18:00, Yellen’s press conference at 18:30. 
6. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. Governor Graeme announced new lending restrictions for property investors to cool the housing market and enable further rate cuts in the coming months.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Economists expect the number of claims will reach 261,000 this week.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 11:59

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "In the event of full-scale risk aversion, the Dollar will not immediately jump to its haven status. Rather, the first phase of sentiment souring would be a diminished economic outlook and the subsequent loss of further yield potential. The more rapidly confidence falls apart, the better for USD as it will revive the absolute safe haven role. Sentiment however does not just hang on the Fed alone. We have seen volatility and volume rise through other contributions this past week. The BoJ’s quickly failing credibility along with the all-out doves could spark fears for the end of a stimulus-supported market boom. Brexit fears stirred this past week could infect deeper financial flaws. Or, the ‘animal spirits’ themselves could rise. Watch sentiment and the Fed through these tenuous times."

GBP/USD - "In turn, GBP/USD may continue to shed the advance from the August low (1.2854), with the exchange rate failing to preserve the monthly opening range, and the pair may ultimately threaten the post ‘Brexit’ wedge/triangle formation in the days ahead should the FOMC meeting boost interest-rate expectations. However, the pair may continue to consolidate within the near-term holding pattern if Fed officials largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy and show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle."

AUD/USD - "Although Fed officials have claimed that every policy meeting may produce a rate hike, their clear desire not to trigger market panic suggests that they will not opt to change things without an opportunity to thoroughly explain in detail. This means that after this week’s outing, the next opportunity for stimulus withdrawal comes in December. Between now and then, another opportunity to update traders will come in November, offering the FOMC a chance to up- or down-shift the projected rate hike path and limit surprise risk. Keeping this flexibility will mean that the narrative emerging from the upcoming announcement will need to be cautious but unmistakably hawkish. This bodes ill for risk appetite as well as the Aussie’s yield advantage, threatening to deliver the currency a third consecutive weekly loss."

NZD/USD - "We’re going to hold a neutral forecast on the New Zealand Dollar for the week ahead, with a warning of caution around this upcoming RBNZ meeting as the bank will be making the announcement in what could be extremely volatile market conditions in the wake of FOMC."

USD/CAD - "The heavy economic data points this week will take place on Friday, which will be after the dust settles from the international development such as the Central Bank triple-header on September 21. On Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will be speaking in Quebec City, which will be followed by a press conference. Friday will provide the Canadian Dollar an opportunity to reverse its trend of negative economic surprises with Retail Sales (exp. -0.1 MoM), and the Consumer Price Index (exp. 1.3% YoY.) Because this is the key gauge for inflation in Canada, a disappointment here coupled with positive developments south of the Canadian Border could put further selling pressure on the Loonie."

USD/CNH - "Next week, traders will want to watch two indicators for clues of the lower bound of the USD/CNH: A) The PBOC’s guidance – the last Yuan fix issued by the PBOC before the holiday was 6.6726. The USD/CNH has already traded below this level. Yuan’s reference rate set after the reopen of onshore markets could tell us whether the Central Bank confirms this Yuan strength. B) HIBOR rates: tightened Yuan liquidity will increase the cost of shorting the Yuan and thus could hold the USD/CNH at low levels. The average level of HIBOR O/N in August was 1.41% and the average over the past 12 months was 2.56%. If the HIBOR read on next Monday is still significantly higher than these levels, it may indicate uneased condition in offshore and a stronger Yuan."

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold is eyeing a key near-term support confluence into the close of the week at 1302/04 where the 100% extension of the decline off the early high converges on the 100-day moving average, the monthly low & the May high. The immediate downside bias is at risk while above this level near-term with initial resistance eyed at the monthly low-day close at 1323 backed by 1330." 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.19 18:30

EURUSD Price Action Outlook: Breaking Lower (based on the article)

Daily price is on testing 1.1149 support level to below for the reversal to the primary bearish market condition.

• "The EURUSD outlook unchanged as it ended the previous week on its knees, closing Friday around 1.1150 area. While this may not seem like a big deal, one should consider the range the pair was holding for the whole week: less than one hundred pips."
• "For the Forex market, a market dominated by wild moves and unpredictable reactions, one hundred pips on the most liquid currency pair out of them all is quite nothing. And this range held until Friday, even though important economic events like the US retail sales and the Producer’s Price Index (PPI) were released on Thursday."
• "Despite those events and the EURUSD outlook, nothing moved the pair. That is, until Friday, when a cold shower saw bulls capitulating: the CPI or inflation in the United States printed higher."

The price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA for the breaking the 200-day SMA together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish condition. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.1283 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.

• If the price will break 1.1283 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If price will break 1.1149 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
1.1283	1.1149
1.1326	N/A

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1149 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1283 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: bearish reversal
  

SUMMARY : correction to the possible bearish reversal

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 10:23

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA for 1.1197 resistance level to be tested for the bullish reversal. The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.1197 resistance level located near 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
• 1.1150 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

The symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the p[rice to be broken to the direction of the trend.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be on bearish condition with the strong support level to be around 1.1100 for example:

"We turned bearish EUR yesterday but indicated that any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1100. In other words, the downside potential appears to be limited. That said, the outlook for EUR is deemed as bearish until there is a break above 1.1240."

• If daily price breaks 1.1207 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.1109 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 15:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Residential Building Permits

2016-09-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

• past data is 1.14M
• forecast data is 1.17M
• actual data is 1.14M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From Business Insider article:

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events

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USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events

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AUD/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.21 09:38

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price broke 1.1150 support level to below for the primary bearish trend to be continuing: the price is on ranging within the following narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.1213 resistance level located near 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
• 1.1124 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

The descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for the bearish condition to be continuing with 1.1100 strong support level:

"There is not much to add as EUR spiked to a high of 1.1213 yesterday but eased off quickly to end near the day’s low. The outlook is still bearish but as highlighted in recent updates, any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1100."

• If daily price breaks 1.1244 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.1149 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 1.1122 target to re-enter.
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.21 20:48

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate

2016-09-21 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.50%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From ft article: Fed fund futures see 60% chance of 2016 rate hike

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EUR/USD M5: 61 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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AUD/USD M5: 67 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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USD/CAD M5: 93 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.22 14:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims

2016-09-22 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

• past data is 260K
• forecast data is 261K
• actual data is 252K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From MarketWatch article: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since July

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EUR/USD M5: 7 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

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AUD/USD M5: 8 pips price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

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USD/CAD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 25.09 - 02.10: ranging near bearish reversal area

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 14:00

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 1.1283 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.1122 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.
  

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the possible bearish reversal, Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible trend as a primary bearish market condition.

If D1 price breaks 1.1122 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.1283 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1366 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1283 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1122 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Trading Summary: ranging
  

Resistance	Support
1.1283	1.1122
1.1366	N/A

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging near bearish reversal