AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 04.09 - 11.09: ranging correction to the bearish reversal

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.03 11:55

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The near-term outlook for AUD/USD remains mired as the pair preserves the downward trending channel carried over from the previous month, but a series of positive developments out of Australia may threaten the bearish pattern as the pair carves as series of higher highs & lows coming into September. In turn, a break of trendline resistance along with a break/close back above former support around 0.7650 (78.6% retracement) may generate a larger advance in the exchange rate, with the next topside target coming in around 0.7740 (78.6% retracement)."

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.03 10:17

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 04 - September 11 (based from the article)

Kuroda’s speech, Rate decision in Australia, Canada the EU, Employment data in the US and Canada as well as US Crude Oil Inventories. These are the highlights of this week.

1. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Monday, 4:30. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. Volatility is expected.
2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Economists anticipate more easing measures in the coming months with a 68% chance for another cut is December.
3. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 16:00. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index is expected to reach 55.4 this time.
4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30.
5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. Economists do not expect a change in monetary policy anytime soon.
6. EU rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. Analysts expect the ECB will act in the fall or winter to extend its bond-buying stimulus program past its expiry date of March 2017.
7. US Unemployment rate: Thursday, 12:30.
8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 15:00. This unexpected trend cast shadow over the oil industry in the coming months.
9. Canadian Employment data: Friday, 12:30.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 04.09 - 11.09: ranging correction to the bearish reversal

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.05 20:03

New daily bar was opened and our dynamic support/resistance levels were changed a little:

• the support level at 0.7485 is the level for the secondary correction to be started (instead of 0.7489),
• bearish reversal support level is 0.7420 (instead of 0.7407).

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the correction to be started (if crossed).

Most likely scenarios for the daily price movement for the week are the following:

• secondary correction on the ranging way to be started by 0.748 support to be crossed by the price to below (the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud on this way), or
• bullish ranging within the levels.

So, it is the ranging anyway (good for martingale and for scalping systems for example).

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 07:38

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate and 20 pips range price movement

2016-09-06 04:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From Financial Times article: RBA keeps benchmark rate on hold

"The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its benchmark rate on hold at 1.5 per cent, as Glenn Stevens presides over his final policy meeting as governor."

From the RBA’s statement:

==========

AUD/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 16:40

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2016-09-06 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 55.5
• forecast data is 55.4
• actual data is 51.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

==========

EUR/USD M5: 85 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event

==========

AUD/USD M5: 52 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event

==========

USD/CNH M5: 122 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Indicators: MFCS Currency Correlation Chart

Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.04 09:27

Australian Dollar Strongly Correlated to Gold, Silver, Steel Prices (based on this article)

View forex correlations to the SPDR Gold ETF Trust (GLD), United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA), UK FTSE 100 Index, and IShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) prices:

XAUUSD/AUDUSD :

XAGUSD/EURUSD :

XAGUSD/USDCAD :

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.07 08:14

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Gross Domestic Product and 28 pips range price movement

2016-09-07 01:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

• past data is 1.0%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

==========

AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by Australian GDP news event

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 08:47

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 37 pips price movement

2016-09-08 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -3.25B
• forecast data is -2.70B
• actual data is -2.41B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

==========

==========

AUD/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: bullish ranging breakdown

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.10 14:39

Daily price is on breakdown which was started on Friday on close daily bar: the price is testing upper border of Ichimoku cloud to below for the bullish breakdown to be continuing with the secondary ranging way and with 0.7485 bearish reversal target. Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is estimating the breakdown to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a ranging correction within the primary bullish market condition.

If D1 price breaks 0.7485 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 0.7731 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 0.7755 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7731 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.7485 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Trading Summary: ranging correction
  

Resistance	Support
0.7731	0.7485
0.7755	N/A

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging correction