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US NFP: Disappointment May Lead to Adverse Reaction in the USD - TDS
![Roberto Jacobs Roberto Jacobs](https://c.mql5.com/avatar/2015/6/55706E50-4CAE.jpg)
US NFP: Disappointment May Lead to Adverse Reaction in the USD - TDS
Research Team at TDS, suggests that some of the price action in the USD
this week partly reflects the optimism expected in headline payrolls and
positive calendar effects associated with hourly wages.
Key Quotes
“From
that perspective, we think a disappointment in the data, particularly
in wages, may lead to a more adverse reaction in the USD. That said, we
think that the disappointment in payrolls will have to be rather
large—likely a miss of 50k jobs and below consensus wage expectations
(given calendar effects)—to exert renewed pressure on the USD.
For
this report, we are focused on two crosses—EURUSD and USDCAD. From a
technical perspective, the EUR looks to have confirmed a shooting star
formed on May 3rd, so we think barring a major disappointment, moderate
pressure in the EUR should be sustained. We spot support around the
1.1320/50 area followed by 1.1240/60.
USDCAD will also have to
compete with the simultaneous release of Canadian jobs where we expect a
moderate increase in hiring though we do see upside risks. This will
complicate trading around USDCAD but we think with USDCAD breaking its
bearish downward trend channel and putting in good work to carve out a
trough, downside should be contained and probably faded. 1.2690 should
act as decent support, whereas 1.2830/50 acts as a significant pivot
zone but we suspect a solid NFP print will be the catalyst to push
USDCAD above 1.29 and confirm our upside bias on the currency pair.”