Natural Gas Prices Weekly Forecast April 11 – 15
U.S. natural gas futures retreated on Friday, as market players continued to monitor shifting weather forecasts to assess the near-term outlook for U.S. demand and supply levels. Natural gas for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange shed 2.8 cents, or 1.39%, to close the week at $1.990 per million British thermal units.
Prices weakened after the latest U.S. weather model called for less cold over the next two weeks than an earlier forecast, which should reduce heating demand during that time. On Thursday, natural gas futures surged 10.7 cents, or 5.6%, as forecasts for more cool weather through the end of April offset a report that inventories rose more than expected last week.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 12 billion cubic feet last week, compared to expectations for a gain of 8 billion. That compares with a withdrawal of 25 billion cubic feet in the prior week and a five-year average decline of around 15 billion for this time of year. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.480 trillion cubic feet, 40.6% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 35.3% above the five-year average for this time of year.
Natural Gas Futures & Stockpiles Impact
Stockpiles at the end of the November-March winter withdrawal season stood at an all-time high of 2.480 trillion cubic feet, topping the previous peak of 2.472 at the end of March in 2012. For the week, natural gas futures tacked on 3.5 cents, or 1.79%, the second straight weekly gain, boosted by forecasts for seasonally cool weather to linger over much of the country through late April.
Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on late-winter heating demand and early-spring cooling needs. Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring’s mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.
The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. However, a warmer-than-normal winter due to the El Niño weather pattern has limited the amount of heating days and reduced demand for the fuel.
Natural gas futures are up almost 19% since hitting a 20-year low of $1.611 in early March. Despite recent gains, prices are still down nearly 10% so far this year as weak winter heating demand, near-record production and record-high storage levels dragged down prices.
In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on weekly U.S. storage data on Thursday for fresh supply-and-demand signals. Some analysts believe April’s storage additions will be less than feared due to a recent burst of chillier-than-normal weather across most parts of the U.S.
Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for May delivery settled at $39.72 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, up $2.93, or 7.37%, on the week, while heating oil for May delivery rallied 5.66% on the week to settle at $1.195 per gallon.
The material has been provided by FX News Call - Global Forex Trading - www.fxnewscall.com
