US: Important Releases Next Week - Danske
Analysts from Danske Bank look into next week economics reports, to be released next week in the US.
Key Quotes:
“Wednesday, we get data on retail sales in
March, which we expect to show control group sales increased by 0.3%
m/m. In line with other data, retail sales have been weak in recent
months but we expect a rebound as consumers are still optimistic and
employment continues to rise. Our base case is that private consumption
growth will accelerate in Q2 and Q3 after the slowdown in Q1.”
“We
are due to get more information about how optimistic consumers are in
the preliminary University of Michigan survey for April due on Friday.
We expect a marginal increase from 91 to 92, which is a relatively high
level.”
“We also intend to keep an eye on the inflation expectations
figures. On Thursday, we are due to get CPI inflation figures for
March. We estimate the CPI core index rose 0.2% m/m, implying an
inflation rate of 2.3% y/y, the highest level since mid-2012. Although
core inflation has picked up in recent months, Janet Yellen has said she
wants to be sure it ‘proves durable’. While the development in the
labour market is key to understanding the initial hike, inflation
development is an important input for the Fed in its timing of the
second hike.”
“Industrial and manufacturing production figures
for March are due on Friday and we look forward to seeing whether the
rebound in ISM is visible in the data. Note though that manufacturing
production actually rose in both January and February despite the very
weak ISM.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)
