Takeaways From This Week's COT Report - Nomura, Deutsche Bank

Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Mar 15  & were released Friday Mar 18.

Nomura: USD longs Dropped To July 2014 Low.

"According to the IMM data for the week ended March 15, non-commercial accounts sold USD to the tune of -$1.7bn, bringing positioning in USD to $9.5bn.

Our real-time estimate suggests that net longs decreased further after the FOMC meeting by -$3.9bn, bringing net longs back to around $5.60bn. USD net longs have not been this low since July 2014, which corresponds with the local low in DXY during the same time.

JPY net long positions were cut significantly (-$2.1bn), bringing net longs back to $5.0bn, which is 70% of the maximum in the last year.

EUR net shorts grew by -$0.9bn on the week, with net shorts at -$10.8bn as of Tuesday; however, our real-time estimator suggests that shorts were cut by $2.4bn since then, bringing net shorts to -$8.4bn.

GBP net shorts were cut by -$3.1bn on the week, with net shorts at -$1.2bn as of Tuesday.

Non-commercial accounts cut AUD longs to the tune of -$1.2bn, bringing net longs back to $1.0bn," Nomura notes.

Deutsche Bank: Most Positive GBP weekly change since April 2009.

"Specs pared their net shorts in GBP futures by 35K contracts to 14K contracts, their most positive weekly change since at least April 2009.

Specs also decreased their net shorts in CAD futures by 9K contracts. However, specs pared their net longs in JPY and AUD futures by 19K and 16K contracts, respectively.

Specs increased their net shorts in EUR futures by 6K contracts to 78K contracts over the week," DB notes. 

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