Today’s rate-setting meeting may bring an unexpected policy rate cut, but we still expect the central bank (CBR) to stay on hold. The decision will be revealed at 10:30 a.m. London time. Although the Bloomberg consensus calls for an unchanged policy rate, the chances for a cut have increased recently due to the sharp turnaround in the
global environment. Our arguments that we presented earlier this week are still valid and we do not expect the CBR to cut the policy rate today. However, if the CBR chooses to cut the policy rate today, we do not think such a decision would dent its credibility.
