First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
■ with regard to the behaviour of the pair EUR / USD, at first everything was going according to plan - a pair rebounded to the resistance in the zone of 1.0990, but then, instead of turning around and going down, it soared up to the values of last September-October. The reason for this was just a "dovish" statement from a Fed official - William Dudley, who expressed doubts as to the interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve System in 2016;
■ Mr. Dudley helped the 50% of the experts, who, backed by graphical analysis on the D1, insisted that GBP/USD would continue to move up to the height of 1.4630. It is this level that the pair reached on Wednesday, after which, as expected, went down, finishing the week in the area of 1.4500;
■ following the decision of the Japanese Central Bank both graphical analysis and the majority of experts were at a loss. Only one (!) analyst believed that USD/JPY would return to the main support of January - 116.50, which is what happened, thanks to all the same Mr. Dudley;
■ as for the future of USD/CHF, graphical analysis on D1 insists that the pair should go down to the 0.9920 support, which is exactly what it did, reflecting the movement of its elder sister - EUR/USD.
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Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
■ when it comes to more or less short-term forecast for EUR/USD, indicators and graphical analysis on H1 talk about the transition of the pair to a sideways trend in the range of 1.1250 ÷ 1.1220. It is understood, that, as the last week showed, a lot in the movement of all major currencies will depend on what the Fed Head Janet Yellen will say in her speech on Wednesday, which may result in the growth of the pair to the level of 1.1350. However, according to more than 70% of the experts and graphical analysis on the D1, the market is almost done with the bad news from the Federal Reserve, and the pair should get back to the area 1.0400 ÷ 1.0600 in the next couple of weeks;
■ as for the future of GBP/USD experts' opinions differ almost in half, and if you focus on readings of indicators and graphical analysis on the H4, the pair will move in a horizontal channel 1.4400 ÷ 1.4545 in the near future. As for the more distant future, 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predict growth of the pair to the resistance 1.4900. However, 60% of the experts do not agree with this, insisting that, following EUR/USD, the pair will fall, reaching the level of 1.4220 by the end of February;
■ it is clear that after the nosedive shown by USD/JPY last week, all indicators look to the south. As for the experts, looking back at the "war" in interest rates between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, they have not come to a consensus - 35% speak about the fall of the pair, the other 35% - about its growth, and the remaining 30% - about a sideway trend in the range of 116.40 ÷ 118.25;
■ also, analysts are undecided about the future of USD / CHF either. If we talk about the graphical analysis on H4 and D1,according to its readings, the pair will first grow up to the level of 0.9980 and then fall to the support of 0.9800, after which it is expected to rise to 1.0124 resistance and then return to the area of 1.025 ÷ 1.032.
