USDCAD Price Action Analysis - bullish breakout or ranging?

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.22 09:53

Forex Weekly Outlook August 24-28 (based on forexcrunch article)

The US dollar suffered in a week that saw doom and gloom in global markets. Will this continue? German Ifo Business Climate, US CB Consumer Confidence,  US Durable Goods Orders and GDP data from the US  and the UK are the main highlights in Forex calendar. Join us as we explore the market-movers for this week.

The Federal Reserve released its July meeting minutes, revealing a dispute over the rate hike timing. Despite clear signals from some Fed officials calling for a rate rise in September, many policy makers still believe such a move is premature. In her capacity as the chair and the leader, Janet Yellen will be the driving force behind September’s decision. Will we see a rate hike in September? The chances look more slim with growing worries about China and fresh political uncertainty about Greece. The euro is clearly positioned as a safe haven currency and enjoys the crisis, alongside the yen. Dollar longs are on the other end.

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 8:00. Business sentiment improved unexpectedly in July following two monthly declines upon an agreement between Greece and its creditors. The Ifo business climate index edged up to 108.0 from a revised 107.5 in June, beating expectations fora 107.6 reading. The Greek crisis resolution and the nuclear deal with Iran boosted sentiment. The survey showed brighter expectations, as well as better current conditions. Business sentiment is forecasted to reach 107.6 in August.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. consumers were less optimistic in July. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 90.9 in July from 99.8 in the prior month, missing forecasts for 100.1. The reading registered its lowest level since September 2014. Current conditions remain positive, but the short-term expectations deteriorated, amid uncertainty concerning the labor market, and volatility in financial markets prompted by the situation in Greece and China. U.S. consumers are expected to be more positive in August. The index is expected to rise to 93.1.
3. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Businesses rebounded after a slow start. Orders for long lasting manufactured goods edged up 3.4% in June after a 1.8% fall in May. Economists forecasted a 3.2% gain. Business investments in manufacturing equipment and software also suggests a pickup in manufacturing in the coming months. However, uncertainty remains since the Durable-goods can be volatile. Meanwhile, orders excluding transportation gained 0.8%, the largest increase since August 2014. Overall, new orders in the first half of 2015 remain weak, down 2% from the same period in 2014. Orders for durable goods are expected to decline 0.5%, while core orders are forecast to gain 0.3%.
4. Jackson Hole Symposium: Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Quite a few central bankers will be making their way to Jackson Hole Wymong for the annual conference. While Fed Chair Janet Yellen will not be attending, some other important figures will be speaking and rubbing shoulders in the corridors. This includes Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, BOE Governor Mark Carney and others. Remarks about the Chinese slowdown ,the euro-zone recovery and of course a potential US Fed hike from the people that matter most will all stir markets.
5. US GDP data: Thursday, 12:30. According to the initial estimate, the US economy grew by 2.6% in Q2, a bounce back from an upwards revised 0.6% in Q1 but certainly not convincing enough. In the second estimate, an upgrade to 3.2% is on the cards. Will a significant upwards revision improve the mood? Ir it the gloom of Q3 here to stay?
6. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment aid increased mildly last week, reaching 277,000. The 4,000 climb is still consistent with a solid job market. The four-week average increased 5,500 to 271,500. The average number of claims remain near a 15-year low, indicating the US labor market continues to strengthen. However, wage growth has yet to improve. Average hourly pay increased a mere 2.1% from 12 months earlier, far less the 3.5% to 4% gains viewed in healthy economies. The number of jobless claims are expected to reach 275,000 this week.
7. UK GDP data: Friday, 8:30. The UK economy returned to stronger growth in Q2: 0.7% according to the initial read. This was as expected and stronger than +0.3% seen in Q1. A confirmation of this number is on the cards for the first revision.
8. US Goods Trade Balance: Friday, 12:30.  This new report from the U.S. Commerce Department was released in July. The event is issued four to seven days prior to the existing report on International Trade in Goods and Services, excluding services or trade in goods on a balance of payments basis. This data is included in the GDP report aimed to improve the accuracy of the first estimate. The Goods Trade Balance for June showed a trade deficit at $62.26 billion.
9. Mark Carney speaks: Saturday, 2:25. BOE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak about inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy at Jackson Hole Symposium. He may talk about the low inflation trend in the UK and his concerns that inflation might fall below zero again postponing any rate hike initiatives this year.