EURUSD Price Action Analysis - ranging bearish with Fibo support level to be broken

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.27 17:46

RBS - 1.05 target for EURUSD (based on forexlive article)

The Royal Bank of Scotland predicted the price for EURUSD as 1.05 1-year target, and those are the 5 key factors from RBS about why 1.05:

• "None of this has much directly to do with Greece."
• "Other factors that support some renewed fall in EUR/USD this year: faster money positioning in EUR/USD is now much cleaner than it was a few months ago, short EUR/USD is a far less crowded trade."
  
• "The German government bond market, which went into price melt-down in March, raising serious risks to other most owned positions like short EUR/USD, has stabilised."
• "Oil prices are falling again steadily."
• "Another key variable is US data and the US Federal Reserve. Informing our EUR/USD lower view is the assumption that the Federal Reserve makes its first tightening move in September his year. That is a close call. But a September rate cut is not fully priced and -if manifest - could give the Dollar a boost into Q4."
  

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.28 09:00

Deutsche Bank with updated EURUSD review: target at 1.02 by Q3-end (based on efxnews article)

The Deutsche Bank updated their view on EUR/USD summarized all the factors and made a conclusion about target EUR/USD at 1.02 by Q3-end:

• "The European outflow story remains fully on track. We continue to see European outflows as part of a multi-year shift in portfolio allocation behaviour towards foreign assets."
  
• "The most important is the Fed's re-investment policy on QE assets, because decisions here will determine the prospect of what would essentially be QT, or quantitative tightening: nearly half a trillion dollars matures in 2016, almost equivalent to a full QE program in reverse."
  
• "Irrespective of lift-off, the key point then is that Fed tightening is multi-dimensional and likely to steadily reinforce a persistent shift away from the dollar as the world's major funding currency."