Firstly, a few words about the previous week’s forecast, the accuracy of which was heavily influenced by statistical reports and by speeches of high-ranking officials:
- With regards to the EUR/USD pair, we had identified 1.1000 as a support level, through which the pair had tried to break through for the entire first half of the week. Finally, following what seemed like relatively unimportant news from the U.S, it managed to achieve that by Friday and it arrived at May’s maximum level.
- For the GBP/USD pair we envisaged a descent into the 1.5350 zone as a possible scenario, followed by a rise and a possible break through the resistance at 1.5555. The pair did indeed fall, although not to the extent that we had presumed: it fell to 1.5450 and then, under a strong impression from the speech of the head of the Bank of England, rushed upwards, broke through 1.5555 and transformed that level from one of resistance to one of support.
- The forecast for USD/JPY can be considered 100% accurate. As had been predicted, the pair descended to a support level at 122.00 for a short while and then moved into the assigned zone with a Pivot Point at 123.50.
- For the trajectory of the movement of the USD/CHF pair two alternative scenarios had been considered, with us presumably being able to identify the correct one based on the pair’s behaviour at the start of the week. Indeed, this turned out being the case: on Monday the pair had already clearly shown that it would follow the indications of graphical analysis and would ascend, making 0.9380 its initial support level.
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The forecast for the upcoming week:
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts that are based on the largest possible variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- that for the EUR/USD pair a unique situation has been laid out – 100% of experts predict a rise and 100% of indicators predict a fall. However, both talk about only minor fluctuations, which seem to be due to the lack of any major news in the upcoming week. 1.0750÷1.0800 will most likely be a support zone for the pair, whilst the resistance zone will probably be 1.1110, which is confirmed by graphical analysis, which talks about a sideways trend with some advantages for the “bulls”.
- with regards to the future of GBP/USD we can also talk about a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 1.5615, support in the 1.5550 zone and resistance at the 1.5760 level. 100% of experts and the ascending corridor that is clearly visible on Н4 suggest that the pair should reach this height within the first half of the week. If we are to believe the graphical analysis on H1, then we cannot exclude a short-term descent to the support level before the pair starts rising.
- last week the USD/JPY pair achieved the 2007 peak. Both experts and indicators tend towards the view that the pair will continue its upwards movement towards the 126.00 mark whilst relying on the support at 123.75. The next support level will be at 123.00.
- As for the behavior of USD/CHF, here everyone also seems to believe that its growth will continue moving towards 0.9600 and beyond to 0.9700. This week the main support will be in the 0.9520 zone.
