WTI Crude has opened inside Value at Nymex. By using its negative correlation with USD/CAD - which looks like price will open above value, indicating more upside for the pair - I would like to wait until Crude falls closer to VAL. Ideally at that point I would like to see USDCAD hit supply at 1.2495.
My area of interest for WTI crude is a long position between 51.60 and 52.20
To clarify why I think USDCAD will go down, I shall consult the monthly S/D analysis. USDCAD has reached a Monthly virgin supply with all the makings a trader needs to speculate rejection: price stayed away for a long time, there was a nice move away from supply and it was untouched. Weekly chart shows that rejection is already on the way, so price has already turned. Of course, to confirm rejection from Monthly for a serious trend turn, I need to wait for the months end. However, I am willing to speculate that this supply will be reactive. Given the positive CAD correlation, I can finally see some more serious uptrend in Crude in the near future.
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