Before I kick off just a reminder about Thanksgiving. This time of year gets a little strange for trading. Thanksgiving will begin on Thursday officially but unofficially has likely already begun and yesterday’s forex trade was very quiet.
Oil. Having said that we still have this week’s OPEC meeting and the distinct possibility that they may actually raise production. Even doing nothing will have the effect of putting downside pressure on oil through multi-year support at $75.50. People are starting to talk about $60 oil and indeed that would be the next logical support.
USDRUB The Ruble has had some rest recently. We had two inside candle weeks followed by a lower low down through 45.00 this week. However we are close to the highs of the week today and back above 45.00. This trade dovetails nicely into the oil trade so don’t get to confident about shorting USDRUB. Should the OPEC meeting open the prospect of $60 Oil then in that environment the Ruble will likely weaken further so my strategy here is the following; Watch this market to finish this week towards the highs. If we manage to break last week’s high of 47.46 I will buy for a resumption of the aggressive rising trend towards 50. 00. This is a risky trade and not for everyone. Put it this way. FXCM and recently raised their margin requirements on USDRUB! See more here
