We continue to suspect that markets are underpricing the probability of a BoE policy adjustment. We suspect that as with the Fed, the threshold of removal of emergency measures is significantly lower than standard interest rate hikes...
After the usual March-April contraction, Switzerland’s trade surplus bounced back in May amid a sharp recovery in exports. The trade surplus rose to CHF 3.4 billion in May from CHF 1.96 a month earlier. Exports - in real terms - increased 2.9% m/m while imports eased to 2% m/m...
Analysts at UOB Group explained that the Reserve Bank of Australia June Rate Meeting Minutes on Tuesday (20 Jun) showed that the central bank continued to believe it is appropriate to keep accommodative stance of policy unchanged...
Analysts at Scotiabank explained that comments from BoE economist Haldane that favoured removing some stimulus echoes the sentiment revealed by last week’s 5-3 split on holding policy unchanged at the BoE’s latest policy meeting...
No one should think that Amazon’s (AMZN) innovative play for Whole Foods is a done deal. News of Amazon’s acquisition of the grocer (WFM) for $13.4bn shocked up the grocery industry and sent big box retailers' stocks tumbling...
Yesterday's collapse of oil to a seven-month low clearly punctuates the demise of OPEC in our view. The thin veil of control that markets provided to this dysfunctional committee is no longer...
The GBP/USD faced a new selling pressure in the NA session after a recent report by Sky News suggested that the negotiations between the Prime Minister May's Conservatives and the Northern Irish DUP were not proceeding in the way the DUP would have expected...
A week after the SNB kept rates unchanged, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs in Bern has issued economic forecasts for Switzerland. The GDP growth in 2018 is expected to reach 1.9% y/y (currently at 0.9%). In the same time, the SECO is forecasting exports to reach 3...
Banxico is clearly following the Fed rate. The Mexican central bank even changed its agenda in 2015 to carefully follow the Fed meetings and to maintain a rate differential to avoid any capital outflow. Tonight the institution will raise to 7...
Roughly one year after the British referendum, the Brexit negotiations officially start today in Brussels. This will be a long and winding road for the UK government, particularly since the Conservative party lost its majority in the House of Commons...
The dollar slipped against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday, after weak U.S. housing and consumer sentiment data backed bets of a slower pace of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The U.S...
The formal start of Brexit negotiations on Monday may prove more of a catalyst for the pound than an inconclusive general election, a surprisehawki shshift by Bank of England officials and a spate of disappointing economic data...
A confirmation of solid growth trends is likely, said UBS Chief Investment Office (CIO). This should support the EUR against the USD. Also interesting in that respect will be the US current account data and the Eurozone consumer confidence report...
The dollar remained close to session lows against a basket of global currencies on Friday, after the release of disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0...
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Loose monetary policy is to continue for some more time. The EURCHF pair is back above 1.0900. This morning Swiss policymakers have decide to hold rates unchanged at -0.75% repeating that the Swiss franc is largely overvalued and that this is a threat for the Swiss economy...
As broadly expected the Federal Reserve lifted borrowing costs by 25bps following a two-day meeting. The decision was already priced in by market participants...
It has been a wild ride for the Russian ruble over the last 18 months. USD/RUB fell as much as 35% between January 2016 and April 2017 before stabilising at between 56 and 58 ruble per US dollar...
