Press review - page 63
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Gold just broke below an important technical level that may indicate another steep drop ahead.
2013-12-20 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - GDP]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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UK Q3 GDP Expands 0.8% As Estimated
The British economy expanded 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, unrevised from the second estimate published on November 27, the Office for National Statistics said in the latest estimates released on Friday.
However, the statistical agency slightly revised up the GDP figure for the second quarter to show a 0.8 percent expansion compared with the previously reported 0.7 percent growth.
The GDP expanded 1.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, the ONS said. This was up from 1.5 percent growth reported in the second estimate.
Gold broke and closed below the key 1219 level on Thursday. This move eliminated the positive cyclicality from December 2nd. Given the rather tepid advance off that low we suspected the key pivot would get tested. Focus is now on the year’s low at 1180 ahead of major support near 1155. As for cycles, there is little in the way of turn windows until the end of the month when a Gann 90-day “death cycle” will open the door to a potential reversal. Only a move through the 2x1 Gann angle line of the August high at 1253 would signal the metal has bottomed earlier than expected.
1. The bond market is the premiere measure of what’s to come
2. The Fed’s effect on longer yields is over and done
3. Economic measures across the board are strong and trending upwards
4. Bondholders now have added protection as a result of the Great Recession and financial stress
5. The steeper yield curve provides added return potential and safety
USDJPY Weekly Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
USDJPY has broken higher from a 6 month triangle. The triangle from the May top probably composes a 4th wave with the current rally composing a 5th wave (Elliott). The implications are that another correction/decline takes hold after wave 5 is complete.
Based on common wave relationships, an objective for wave 5 is 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 at 111.19. This is near the August 2008 high of 110.65. A 100% extension of wave 4 yields 113.68. An extended wave 5 (blowoff) could see the 100% extension of waves 1 through 3 at 121.95 (not far from the 2007 high at 124.13). In other words, there is plenty of upside.
Trading Strategy: I am long with a 102.60 stop. A level that may induce a pullback (or failure) is the uncovered close from October 2008 at 105.30. Know that there are long term trendlines in play over the next few months as well
Technical analysis for GOLD :
Gold Sheds Nearly 3% on Fed Taper- Bearish Tone Set for 2014 Open
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Gold was off sharply on the week with the precious metal plummeting more than 2.8% to trade at $1203 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Despite the magnitude of the weekly loss, bullion is set to close well off the lows of the week at 1187. Regardless, the metal is now set to post its first yearly decline in thirteen years and its largest yearly decline in 32 years. As the Fed begins to throttle down from its ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance, the outlook remains heavy heading into 2014.
Forex - Weekly outlook: December 23 - 27
Monday, December 23
Markets in Japan will remain closed in observance of the Emperor's Birthday.
The U.S. is to produce government data on personal spending and expenditure, while the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, Canada is to release monthly data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.
Tuesday, December 24
Markets in Germany will remain closed in observance of Christmas Eve, while France is to release data on consumer spending.
The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on new home sales.
Wednesday, December 25
Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the U.K., Switzerland, Canada and the U.S. will remain closed for the Christmas Day holiday.
Thursday, December 26
Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the U.K. and Canada will remain closed in observance of Boxing Day.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
Later in the day, the Labor Department is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, December 27
Japan is to release a series of data, including reports on household spending, inflation, retail sales and industrial production.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is to round up the week with a report on crude oil supplies.
AUDUSD fundamentals: December 23 - 27
Monday, December 23
The U.S. is to produce government data on personal spending and expenditure, while the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Tuesday, December 24
The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on new home sales.
Wednesday, December 25
Markets in Australia and the U.S. will remain closed for the Christmas Day holiday.
Thursday, December 26
Markets in Australia will remain closed in observance of Boxing Day.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release weekly data on initial jobless claims.
Friday, December 27
The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on crude oil supplies.
USDJPY fundamentals: December 23 - 27
Monday, December 23
Markets in Japan will remain closed in observance of the Emperor's Birthday.
The U.S. is to produce government data on personal spending and expenditure, while the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Tuesday, December 24
The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on new home sales.
Wednesday, December 25
BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is due to speak at the Japan Business Federation, in Tokyo. His comments will be closely scrutinized for clues regarding future monetary policy.
Markets in the U.S. will remain closed for the Christmas Day holiday.
Thursday, December 26
The Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
Later in the day, the Labor Department is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, December 27
Japan is to release a series of data, including reports on household spending, inflation, retail sales and industrial production.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is to round up the week with a report on crude oil supplies.