Gary Comey / Профиль

Interesting day fuelled by panic and low liquidity given that it's between Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday and the weekend. Dramatic things can happen in low liquidity but that's not to invalidate the moves. Whether COVID-19 induced or not the equity markets are very frothy and needed an excuse. Perhaps there will be follow through next week when people have had the weekend to worry and panic even further (smiley). Interestingly a Friday panic about depreciating the dollar versus the Deutsche Mark caused a "Black Monday" and the crash in the equity markets in 1987. I was 12 years old. Anyway the panic about the pandemic reduced rate expectations, weakened the dollar and by extension strengthened the Euro both against it and against the Pound hence the nice move we've had in EURGBP very comfortably taking out daily resistance in the 0.8430's. Oil price declines weakened the Loonie against major forex so our GBPCAD has had a nice rally. I thought of taking profits at 1.7165 but I'm a bit reluctant to take profits in the High Risk account in GBPCAD because I'd be hitting the bid with 350 lots in poor liquidity. Hopefully we get out of GBPCAD next week and we finally have a win to feel good about having taken some of the medicine up front. Hanging on to winners is harder than hanging on to losers but it's about being self-aware. While currency markets can change and drag our emotions with them one thing that will not change is my determination to move these accounts out of the short term challenges that have overcome them and back on the longer term trajectory that has made us all so much money.

GBPCAD is trading in and around breakeven with some good momentum behind it. It would suit us to see oil prices decline given the Canadian dollar is correlated to oil and that could come for example following more lockdowns in Europe. That said we don't know what will happen next however it's relative USDCAD is almost at 1.2650 and a convincing break of that level could set up a measured move to 1.2950 which most definitely helps GBPCAD. Profits as discussed are to go towards filling the hole created by closing EURGBP losers.

Sterling has strengthened somewhat today on positive news flow in BREXIT talks and so our EURGBP has dropped though still trades well above last weeks Bank of England dovish news announcement which was quite a surprise to traders. After falling since February EURGBP has recently shown signs of life however the goal as previously discussed is to use GBPCAD profits and profits from the second basket in general to plug the hole created by closing EURGBP losers. Usefully the BREXIT news has put a bit of a bid under GBPCAD which may be attempting to form a bottom by 1.6720. A close above 1.69 (currently trading 1.6857) with this pair could cause some short covering and attract new buyers turning sentiment bullish. The Loonie has stalled out against the Euro and been weaker against the Dollar and the Yen this week too.

EURGBP has had the rally we've been looking for helped on by overly hawkish expectations on interest rates that were dashed by the Bank of England yesterday to weaken the Pound. Further follow through may soon by helped on by the triggering of article 16 of the Brexit agreement which will cause further trade tensions with the E.U and tension with the U.K over the Northern Ireland protocol of the BREXIT agreement. EURGBP is now more than 100 pips higher than the lows of last week. As Sterling weakened that GBPCAD second basket dropped to longer term support from October and May 2020 at circa 1.6720 before rallying back up towards 1.68 tonight. GBPCAD remains oversold daily and almost weekly and the strategy therefore is to buy while partially hedging EURGBP. Frankly we need to see the balance of the DD improve decisively towards EURGBP before I would consider buying more GBPCAD. Of course the Canadian dollar may help us out too but there are a lot of moving parts such as the performance of GBPUSD and USDCAD and probably EURUSD too. Rising EURGBP and rising GBPCAD off oversold conditions and a weaker Canadian dollar, too much to ask...maybe! However a partial hedge is just that, partial so it is possible.

You might call the -7.36% in the cash of the high risk account this month a strategic withdrawal. We took some medicine in order that the patient gets indulge again in the future. EURGBP is sort of in a holding pattern and probably needs to get above 0.85 or even 0.8530 in order to alleviate selling and put the focus on higher levels like 0.8660 which is close to the new average entry (admittedly before SWAPS). EURUSD is always a big driver of Euro based pairs so the ECB leaning more aggressively towards inflation would help a lot. Eurozone consumer inflation is running at 4.1%, more than twice the ECB's target for price stability but Lagarde is trying to hold out while bullish bets on the Euro seem to be rising. So while further weakness in EURGBP cannot be ruled out I think the balance of probabilities is for the market to rise rather than fall. GBPCAD is slow for now but the average true range in greater than what we have been witnessing. Rising weekly support is holding and was well supported at 1.6910 earlier in the week. I still like this trade and while the Loonie is strong for well documented reasons that is the strategy. We buy on a grid when it moves significantly away from the M.A and the weekly 14 period MA sits at 1.7266 tonight.

In the context of the overall downtrend EURGBP has had a particularly good day amid mixed U.K data this morning and could finish towards the upper end of recent days. Sterling declined against the Euro and the dollar today, indeed GBPUSD may be swinging lower off the 1.3830's and any continued move lower can in theory continue to help our suffering EURGBP trade. Certainly if I am to be closing EURGBP losers I'd rather be doing it with EURGBP continuing to move higher. GBPCAD mirrors USDCAD pretty closely and so I am not so much worried about the Sterling element of this trade. The BOC may deliver more tapering in next weeks meeting but according to ING this is probably already "fully priced in" so any measured move above 1.24 next week could attract more buyers and lead to further Loonie weakness and thus our GBPCAD will still likely mirror it higher in such a scenario. That's what we want. If I can close GBPCAD in the 1.71's it will go a long way to absorbing the recent loss I took closing the EURGBP biggest loser. The 1.71's are entirely within reach.

So right now the high risk account has breached the 50% soft stop. The largest loser in EURGBP has been cut across High, medium and low risk accounts and the plan as discussed yesterday is to use the second basket to drive the cash forward into the hole created by closing EURGBP positions at a loss. It's useful to consider the strategy which was created under zero stress for use in times of stress. It trades two pairs in a manually traded grid using RSI to time entry. When profit targets are hit trades are closed. If the market continues to move against the initial position new trades are added. Risk control is achieved through position size etc etc. EURGBP will surely go up just as night follows day, the only question is when and all the T.A and fundamental analysis in the world won't get the timing right unless by chance. In the meantime I think it's practical to continue with the strategy that was built to trade two pairs for the very reason that one might not be working or might not work in the timeframe that we find reasonable. What would be very silly would be to capitulate to fear over a strategy that's worked since 2015 though such an emotion is entirely reasonable. We've shown that we can take a loss but if I cut everything as soon as trading conditions got difficult since 2015 I'd have nothing now. Reminds me of Kipling's poem "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs..."

It's an early Friday update today due primarily to the EURGBP positions and the fact that we have both Non-Farm payrolls and Canadian employment data later today. While EURGBP found support at 0.8471 the situation has become difficult and given primarily technical factors it's not unrealistic to say there would be further downside. EURUSD has dropped quickly for the last few days dragging EURGBP lower with it. IF I were not in any positions right now I'd be looking to buy EURUSD given it's technically oversold nature. As you know I have no official stop loss but a "soft stop loss" instead. A soft stop loss is essentially an area of DD where I will consider taking new measures to protect equity. The options are simple enough when this stretched and involved taking full or partial losses and/or adding equity to the accounts. I may take a partial loss of the biggest losers. I am thinking of adding money to my own accounts up to 10% deposit. I say this because I added money before and people asked me to give them the heads up if I do it again therefore while it is not certain it is a possibility. The economist John Maynard Keynes famously said "the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent" however he may not have had more money to add nor is solvency even really an issue here, simply my self imposed soft stop loss levels. It is also not certain that I will take any measures, my preference is to do nothing. When markets are falling technical analysis will tell you the trend is down and give you support/resistance and the next downside target and when markets rise they will do the opposite. It can get into your head and cause stress and anxiety if you are trading because it is one thing to know your levels but another to handle your emotions. Yet technical analysis is simply the weather forecast, when downside targets are not hit they simply change the forecast so while it is useful it is not gospel nor do those who make the forecast intend people to hang their hats on those levels with the certainty of a German government bond. When the rain doesn't arrive they cheerily tell you it didn't rain as if that doesn't make their previous announcement wrong. Since we got into EURGBP the cash is considerably higher and my first preference is to continue to drive it higher with the certainty that no market, even EURGBP is likely to continue to drop especially given the many domestic issues in the U.K, tensions with the E.U over trade, supply chain problems regarding fuel and other supplies etc. Higher cash = more options and protection. I hope you don't mind that I have not given you certainty as to my next actions but rather the options I am considering.

Cash higher again, it's been a 2% week and September was a 3.5% month in the higher risk account. Earlier in the week I said "lets see what the rest of the week brings" and now we know that EURGBP weakened partially due to EURUSD weakness (U.S Yields etc) and partly due to Sterling strength eg GBPUSD. EURGBP probably needs to close above 0.86 to provide any bullish signal. Rabobank had previously put an end of year target of 0.84 have now raised it to 0.85 which is not good enough for us but keep in my that is an end of year target and there can be lots of volatility around that number. They may also be just plain wrong.....again. Personally I think BREXIT won't be easy and while the end result may or may not be a success for the U.K, the road will be bumpy irrespective. Volatility is good for us and that is picking up as we move into October an historically volatile month.

Cash is higher due to some AUDNZD trades and I continue to like this trade. EURGBP had a nice rally earlier in the week through resistance but no follow through. The BOE’s more bullish stance strengthened Sterling again on Thursday but couldn’t push the pair to new lows. Hopefully that’s a good sign from the point of view of our trade. Intraday bias in EURGBP is mildly on the upside for 0.8612 resistance. However a break of 0.8688 with follow through would mean there is a strong sign of larger bullish reversal.

Earlier in the week I was so sure AUDNZD was going to go through 1.0365 that I began a new grid before I had properly closed the first one. It went to 1.0363 and then reversed so now that I have closed out the first grid I can properly begin the latest AUDNZD grid. That is the reason I left one AUDNZD position open, it was never meant to be part of that grid. Sorry about that. Anyway the cash is higher again and EURGBP while off the lows of the week has been a bit disappointing. EURGBP probably needs to take out 0.8613 to get some proper momentum going. Next Wednesday's FOMC meeting could be useful in terms of volatility.

I don't care what the E.C.B says if you reduce the amount of monthly stimulus you are tapering which in theory should strengthen the Euro. It didn't, perhaps against Sterling Lagarde's dovish talk was just too much to let that pair go higher. How long you can go on reducing your asset purchases and say you are not tapering is probably an academic question more suited to academics than I. In the meantime the U.K balance of trade was slightly worse than expected this morning. So having gone stop hunting below 0.8540 which I said last week was support the market is now back at circa 0.8540 this evening, hardly a panic. In the meantime we've had a little success with EURUSD, EURCHF and am long AUDNZD tonight again so the cash continues to go higher.

Having broken higher out of the descending trend EURGBP is finding support at circa 0.8540 and resistance at 0.86 in a daily flag pattern which typically would break higher after a period of consolidating. A break of 0.86 would make July's 0.8670 the next higher target. By my calculations just under 0.87 is breakeven but when you include SWAPS it's closer to 0.8790 however there is no point in worrying too much about that for now. We need to get closer first and I may still add another EURGBP trade. The cash grew by 3.78% in August which as I usually say is downside protection at worst.

After last weeks bullish weekly candle that took us through resistance and finished on the highs this week appears to be more about consolidating the gains. Set backs should be supported in the 0.8550's range whereas a break of the psychological 0.86 mark would be self-evidently encouraging. At this point I would have a bullish lean towards the Euro versus the buck and a bearish lean against the Pound versus the dollar. So Euro bullish and Pound bearish would definitely suit our long suffering EURGBP trade. All the while other trades are working out okay and the cash in the high risk account is 3.6 % higher in August so far with a few days to go. All improvements in cash naturally improve safety/profits.

Reasonable progress with our EURGBP long position which has yet again broken out of the descending trend. As short term oscillators are over bought I’m not likely to add a final position yet indeed adding a final position is only likely to improve the average entry by 10 pips so I’m not sure if I will yet. It would have the benefit of paying for a lot of SWAPS though risk goes up a little too. We’ve had some quick action with our Kiwi positions and our latest AUDCHF is very oversold giving me quite a bit of confidence on this trade. Also the SWAPS on AUDCHF are actually positive.

The value of your investments may go up as well as down. The last two days have seen a nice EURGBP rally however it is still in an otherwise downtrend that began in April. Actually we did take out the April '21 low of 0.8471 going as low as 0.8450 this week. I wonder is this a double bottom I mentioned a few weeks ago with a lower low and finishing the week fairly strong which is usually bullish! As is always the case...I don't know! Support is now at circa 0.8450 but we'd obviously like to see it clear resistance at circa 0.8550. The market will finish the week somewhere in between those two figures at 0.85ish. My own personal DD when you add the three accounts is in monetary terms is about $70K which is not that uncomfortable for me. I think I will win. I sometimes get a little anxious and then recall the other times I got anxious in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. It's more important to me to play the game well, the market tends to reward players with patience and punish those who freak out about money. Position size means I haven't been "taken out to the woodshed and beaten" since 2014. The cash is higher in the high risk client account by 1.24% so far in August.

The EURUSD drop on Friday has kept EURGBP firmly in this LONG downtrend. Resistance at circa 0.8550 and support down at circa 0.8455. The DD is stressful but with the cash growing it does help a little. Looking at the Alpine managed account in total it's about $400K higher than it was when this bloody EURGBP trade began. As I said last week people tend to give more weight to recent events and assume EURGBP will drop forever but when we look back at the months and years we send trend changes everywhere. The issue to having enough equity to tolerate an extended move against your position. Our position sizes and our ability to continue to grow the cash is our insurance policy on this. Obviously even that has it's limits but it's about trying to stack the odds more in your favour.

Eurozone QoQ GDP actually beat expectations this morning but as I suspected yesterday the lead into the August bank holiday is quiet. EURGBP has traded in a very tight range within the medium term downtrend. Resistance at the upper end of this downtrend is at approx 0.8560 which is not that far away. In terms of safety features I have traded the cash a little higher again which as I've said before "all other things being equal" this reduces the DD. It's 3.28% higher for July. Bare with me! EURUSD is trading within the appex of a shorter term wedge formation. I need to be careful here not to load up too early in case there is a major break out of the wedge to the upside, which if it did happen will likely help the EURGBP long basket. Anyway I am not that comfortable with the DD but that said all systems have their issues. I could trade fibonacci with a tight stop loss and hand you 15 small losers in a row (plus heart burn) and yet be profitable in the long term. This is the most prolonged DD I have ever had. People have wondered weather my issue is trading Sterling pairs but BREXIT was hugely profitable. I think for those people it's a case of giving more weight to recent events which is a natural human and trading bias.

Beginning with EURGBP Monday was definitely interesting given the Euro rally both against the Pound and the Dollar however the E.C.B took away the punch bowl with fairly dovish statements later in the week. That said it has made the picture more complicated and hopefully given EURGBP an upside bias going into next week which will include a Fed rate decision, FOMC and US GDP. With EURUSD itself sitting at medium term support it could be that these events become important given the correlation between EURUSD and EURGBP on short/medium term timeframes. From a more fundamental perspective most Delta variant news out of the U.K is tending to hurt the Pound which frankly is good for us.