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Predicting the direction and movement of stock index prices is difficult, often leading to excessive trading, transaction costs, and missed opportunities. Often traders need a systematic method to not only spot trading opportunities, but to also provide a consistent approach, thereby minimizing trading errors and costs. While mechanical trading systems exist, they are usually designed for a specific stock, stock index, or other financial asset, and are often highly dependent on preselected inputs and model parameters that are expected to continue providing trading information well after the initial training or back-tested model development period. The following research leads to a detailed trading model that provides a more effective and intelligent way for recognizing trading signals and assisting investors with trading decisions by utilizing a system that adapts both the inputs and the prediction model based on the desired output. To illustrate the adaptive approach, multiple inputs and modeling techniques are utilized, including neural networks, particle swarm optimization, and denoising. Simulations with stock indexes illustrate how traders can generate higher returns using the developed adaptive decision support system model. The benefits of adding adaptive and intelligent decision making to forecasts are also discussed.
The Foreign Exchange Market is the biggest and one of the most liquid markets in the world. This market has always been one of the most challenging markets as far as short term prediction is concerned. Due to the chaotic, noisy, and non-stationary nature of the data, the majority of the research has been focused on daily, weekly, or even monthly prediction. The literature review revealed that there is a gap for intra-day market prediction. Identifying this gap, this paper introduces a prediction and decision making model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithms. The dataset utilized for this research comprises of 70 weeks of past currency rates of the 3 most traded currency pairs: GBP\USD, EUR\GBP, and EUR\USD. The initial statistical tests confirmed with a significance of more than 95% that the daily FOREX currency rates time series are not randomly distributed. Another important result is that the proposed model achieved 72.5% prediction accuracy. Furthermore, implementing the optimal trading strategy, this model produced 23.3% Annualized Net Return. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Desenvolvimento de indicadores de redes neurais
Hi!
Estou tentando fazer alguns indicadores de rede neural para metatrader4, e gostaria de algumas sugestões, principalmente em relação a entradas e saídas da rede, e talvez a estrutura ou tipo de rede que você considera a melhor para esta aplicação.
Tanto quanto se sabe, os melhores resultados para a previsão de séries financeiras são a previsão da faixa de preços, a previsão do topo ou do fundo, e essa tubulação de coisas. A previsão direta do preço (aberto, fechado) não obtém bons resultados porque, por inúmeras razões, por exemplo, uma pequena mudança no tempo entre o tempo aberto e o tempo fechado poderia mudar seus valores de forma ponderada.
Se alguém tiver uma sugestão, terei prazer em ouvi-la e experimentá-la.
A propósito, não sou nenhum programador especializado em redes neurais, apenas tenho uma boa idéia geral sobre o assunto =P.
Obrigado de antemão,
JCC
The Foreign Exchange Market is the biggest and one of the most liquid markets in the world. This market has always been one of the most challenging markets as far as short term prediction is concerned. Due to the chaotic, noisy, and non-stationary nature of the data, the majority of the research has been focused on daily, weekly, or even monthly prediction. The literature review revealed that there is a gap for intra-day market prediction. Identifying this gap, this paper introduces a prediction and decision making model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithms. The dataset utilized for this research comprises of 70 weeks of past currency rates of the 3 most traded currency pairs: GBP\USD, EUR\GBP, and EUR\USD. The initial statistical tests confirmed with a significance of more than 95% that the daily FOREX currency rates time series are not randomly distributed. Another important result is that the proposed model achieved 72.5% prediction accuracy. Furthermore, implementing the optimal trading strategy, this model produced 23.3% Annualized Net Return.
OpenNN (Open Neural Networks Library) is a software library written in the C++ programming language which implements neural networks, a main area of deep learning research..
O OpenNN implementa métodos de mineração de dados como um pacote de funções. Estes podem ser incorporados em outras ferramentas de software usando uma interface de programação de aplicativos (API) para a interação entre a ferramenta de software e as tarefas analíticas preditivas. Neste sentido, falta uma interface gráfica de usuário, mas algumas funções podem suportar a integração de ferramentas de visualização específicas.
A principal vantagem do OpenNN é seu alto desempenho. Esta biblioteca se destaca em termos de velocidade de execução e alocação de memória. Ela é constantemente otimizada e paralela a fim de maximizar sua eficiência.
Rede neural
Rede neural: tópicos de discussão/desenvolvimento
Rede neural: Indicadores e desenvolvimento de sistemas
Rede neural: EAs
Rede Neural: Os Livros