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Francis Dogbe
Here is a post from Forex Factory by "FTI" :
Technical Analysis Fallacy - First Post: Nov 25, 2007 9:41pm
Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literature can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.
Since the late 70's and into the millennium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes.
Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies.
Leonardo Da Vinci who fostered the Fibonacci principles,
W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price.
R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies
W.Wilders who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index.
The Stocastics, MACDs, ……………………………...etc
If one was to implement all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.
Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg:-Linear Charts, HLC Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractals, ………..etc
Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.
What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.
"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why, But to signal Sell or Buy, For the traders to do or die, Hoping that the signal does not lie,
I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Churchill.
"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time."
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."
Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.
The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.
How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.
Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uninitiated), laziness, or just plain stubbornness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.
I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.
What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.
I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.
regards
Technical Analysis Fallacy - First Post: Nov 25, 2007 9:41pm
Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literature can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.
Since the late 70's and into the millennium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes.
Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies.
Leonardo Da Vinci who fostered the Fibonacci principles,
W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price.
R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies
W.Wilders who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index.
The Stocastics, MACDs, ……………………………...etc
If one was to implement all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.
Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg:-Linear Charts, HLC Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractals, ………..etc
Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.
What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.
"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why, But to signal Sell or Buy, For the traders to do or die, Hoping that the signal does not lie,
I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Churchill.
"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time."
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."
Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.
The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.
How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.
Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uninitiated), laziness, or just plain stubbornness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.
I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.
What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.
I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.
regards
· 3
Francis Dogbe
This what happens when you wanna be greedy with market. 24 monitors to trade.... this crazy :D
· 15
Francis Dogbe
EURUSD spiked below 1.3590/85 to important weekly support at 1.3535/30. We stated ''A very good chance of a low for the week...This is the best chance bulls have to regain control of the pair...Exit shorts & try longs but we need wide stop below 1.3490.'' This trade worked perfectly as the pair bottomed at 1.3501 & rocketed quickly towards strong resistance at 1.3675/80. This held a move higher almost perfectly as predicted but the outlook remains positive after Thursday's price action & as long as we can hold above the 200 day moving average at 1.3650 we can look for a test of resistance at 1.3690.
GBPUSD hit our target of 1.6835/45 & as predicted we did struggle here seeing a high for the day at exactly 1.645. The outlook is more mixed but further gains are not out of the question & if we can beat Friday's high we could target 1.6875/80.
GBPUSD hit our target of 1.6835/45 & as predicted we did struggle here seeing a high for the day at exactly 1.645. The outlook is more mixed but further gains are not out of the question & if we can beat Friday's high we could target 1.6875/80.
· 3
Francis Dogbe
Good morning fellow trader, hope you had a wonderful weekend. :-). I wish you all best of the best in this week trades. More profit. Take as much as you can but don't be greedy ;-)....... Happy Trading
· 6
Francis Dogbe
2014.06.09
no. "Fail Your Way To Success" means before you succeed you need to first fail and release your mistake. And never to repeat is again. :-)
Francis Dogbe
Panagiotis Georgalas
Adding digital currencies as a payment method
Digital or crypto currencies become increasingly popular. They offer fast and low cost transactions and are available to anyone without any country specific restrictions. It would be a good idea to add them as an alternative payment system. I think
· 1
Francis Dogbe
The market will soon close... make sure you do this... ;)
Before your BROKER....@#$%***. Hope you know what i mean.
Before your BROKER....@#$%***. Hope you know what i mean.
· 13
Francis Dogbe
My broker has done it again.... moving my pending order from this original position. i am getting crazy. i will sue their ass.
· 2
mohd firdauz zainal abidin
2014.06.04
can you share sir?what broker did you use..thanks..i hope with your sharing people will alert
Matthew Todorovski
2014.06.05
Yes, please do tell which broker you are referring to. Let us all boycott this broker and make them really go "broker".
Francis Dogbe
I hate what my broker is doing... two of my brokers are manipulating my orders (SL & TP) and interpreting my trades. They have accounted to my recent losing trades. :(
· 1
Francis Dogbe
It’s easy and natural to feel frustrated with life. When you do, step back, experience the frustration, and let it motivate you, but don’t let it control you.... Good morning and Happy Trading
· 5
Francis Dogbe
Good news for all MQL traders
MetaQuotes
New Beta Version of MetaTrader 4 Client Terminal Build 654: Virtual Hosting, Web Requests and Working with Signals from MQL Applications
New beta version of MetaTrader 4 Client Terminal build 654 has been released on MetaQuotes-Demo server. It contains the following changes: Terminal: Preparatory works for Cloud Hosting implementation. Many traders want to arrange a reliable
· 3
Stay positive, my friends ...