Focus on the ECB Meeting and U.S. Economic Indicator Releases, with Events Concentrated Early in the NY Market

EUR/USD: Buy - Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) October 17, 2024

EUR/USD: Buy

The EUR/USD is showing a stable downtrend, testing the 1.0850 level. Investors are waiting for the results of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut and further signals of monetary easing. Today, Eurozone inflation statistics for September will be released, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasted at 2.7% year-on-year. In the U.S., data on September retail sales and industrial production are also scheduled for release, with retail sales expected to accelerate to 0.3%.

GBP/USD: Neutral

The GBP/USD is trading sideways around 1.2985, near its lowest level since August 20. The previous day, the UK's September inflation data fell short of expectations, showing a significant decline. The core CPI decreased to 3.2% year-on-year, while the overall CPI slowed to 1.7%. The deceleration in inflation is leading to a reassessment of the Bank of England's future policy outlook. Today, U.S. retail sales for September will be announced, with a projected increase of 0.3%.

NZD/USD: Strong Buy

The NZD/USD is showing moderate gains, recovering from the previous day's decline. It is currently trading around 0.6060, mainly supported by technical factors. New Zealand's CPI for the third quarter has significantly slowed to an annual rate of 2.2%, getting closer to the central bank's target. This increases the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Meanwhile, in the U.S., a 25 basis point rate cut is anticipated in November. U.S. retail sales, set to be released today, are expected to accelerate to 0.3%.

USD/JPY: Sell

The USD/JPY is showing mixed movements around 149.50, near the highs seen in early August. Investors are focusing on today's U.S. retail sales for September, which are expected to increase by 0.3%. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for October is also due for release. Japanese statistics indicate that September exports decreased by 1.7%, while imports slowed to 2.1%. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed from ¥703.2 billion to ¥294.3 billion.

XAU/USD: Strong Buy

Gold prices continue to rise, attempting to break out above 2680.00. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, along with uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election in November, are increasing demand for gold. Furthermore, expectations of additional monetary easing by major central banks are supporting prices. Today, the ECB is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also likely to implement a similar cut before the end of the year.