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Returns based Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands based on Returns

 

This indicator characterizes the price and volatility by providing a channel/band of standard deviations like the Bollinger Bands. In contrary to standard Bollinger Bands which uses price directly, this indicator uses returns due to normalization.

 

The standard Bollinger Bands based on price directly, were one of the first quant or statistical methods for retail traders available. The issue with these bands, standard deviations can only be calculated, if the underlying data is normal distributed. But price (data basis for Bollinger Bands) is log-normal distributed.

This indicator normalizes the underlaying price data to a normal distributed data, calculates the (standard) deviation and transfers the values back to its price domain. With this approach it is from statistical point of view, much more accurate and reflects the actual probabilities much better.

 

Similar as the standard Bollinger Bands, the upper and lower band for this indicator also reflects the limit, where it is unlike for the candle to close outside of this channel/band. If selected multiplier is 1.96 (1.96 Standard deviations), the probability is 95% that it will not close outside. If you choose multiplier 1.0 (1 SD), chances are 68.5% that it will not close outside.

 

Input:

Sample Size: 21 (periods back to calculate returns-based Bollinger Bands)

Multiplier: 1.96 (1.96 standard deviations)



Remark: Indicator is provided for statistical analysis and showing probabilities only and should not be construed as financial advice.


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Gartley Hunter Multi - An indicator for searching for harmonic patterns simultaneously on dozens of trading instruments and on all possible timeframes. Manual (Be sure to read before purchasing) | Version for MT4 Advantages 1. Patterns: Gartley, Butterfly, Shark, Crab. Bat, Alternate Bat, Deep Crab, Cypher 2. Simultaneous search for patterns on dozens of trading instruments and on all possible timeframes 3. Search for patterns of all possible sizes. From the smallest to the largest 4. A
IX Power MT5
Daniel Stein
5 (3)
IX Power   lleva por fin la insuperable precisión de FX Power a los símbolos que no son de Forex. Determina con exactitud la intensidad de las tendencias a corto, medio y largo plazo de tus índices, acciones, materias primas, ETF e incluso criptodivisas favoritas. Puede   analizar todo lo   que su terminal le ofrece. Pruébalo y experimenta cómo   tu timing mejora significativamente   a la hora de operar. Características principales de IX Power Resultados de cálculo 100% precisos y sin rep
Advanced Supply Demand MT5
Bernhard Schweigert
4.53 (15)
¡Actualmente con 33% de descuento! ¡La mejor solución para cualquier tráder principiante o experto! Este indicador es una herramienta comercial única, de alta calidad y asequible, porque incorpora una serie de características patentadas y una nueva fórmula. Con esta actualización, podrá mostrar zonas de doble marco temporal. No solo podrá mostrar un marco temporal más alto, sino también mostrar ambos, el marco temporal del gráfico MÁS el marco temporal más alto: MOSTRANDO ZONAS ANIDADAS. A todos
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Drift
Florian Nuebling
This Oscillator describes the drift of an asset, as part of the geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). As a data basis the mean reverting log returns of the asset price is considered. It gives the percentile of drift directional. For instance, a value of 0.05 means a drift of 5%, based on the selected sample size. If the value is positive, drift to higher asset values is determined.  This indicator should be used in confluence with other indicators based on volatility, probability and statistics. L
FREE
Percentile of Historical Volatility and Correlation Coefficient shows if the asset is cheap or expensive based on the volatility. It is used to determine a good entry point. It has two indicators built in: Historical Volatility is ranked percentile wise and its correlation to price action which gives an indication of the direction of a possible future move. Together the both indicators can give good entries and direction.   Historical Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of retu
The indicator ‘Probability Range Bands’ gives a prediction of the amount, how much the asset is moving from its current price. The range bands give probabilities, that the candle close will not exceed this certain price level. It is also called the expected move for the current candle close.   This Indicator is based on statistical methods, probabilities and volatility. Asset price is assumed to follow a log-normal distribution. Therefore, log returns are used in this indicator to determine the
This z-score indicator shows the correct z-score of an asset, as it uses the normalized price data for calculation, which is the only correct way. Z-score is only applicable for normal distributed data, therefore not the actual price is considered, but the normalised returns, which were assumed to follow a normal distribution. Returns are mean reverting and assumed to follow a normal distribution, therefore z-score calculation of returns is more reliable than z-score on price, as price is NOT m
The RSI2.0 indicator uses normalized price data and signal processing steps to get a normal distributed oscillator with no skew (mean is zero). Therefore, it can give much better reads than the traditional RSI.   Areas/Levels of reversal: Overbought or oversold levels from traditional RSI have no statistical significance, therefore the standard deviation bands are implemented here, which can be used in similar way as possible reversal points.   Divergence: As the indicator is nearly normal dist
The Returns Momentum Oscillator (RMO) shows the difference of exponentially weighted volatility. It is used to find market tops and bottoms. Volatility comes in waves, and as the Returns often front run price action it gives directional prediction of market movement.   The Oscillator signal is RMSed (root mean squared) to make the distribution closer to Gaussian distribution. While the traditional RSI indicators are often stuck in overbought or oversold areas for a long time, RMSing of the sign
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