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Probability Range Bands

The indicator ‘Probability Range Bands’ gives a prediction of the amount, how much the asset is moving from its current price. The range bands give probabilities, that the candle close will not exceed this certain price level. It is also called the expected move for the current candle close.

 

This Indicator is based on statistical methods, probabilities and volatility. Asset price is assumed to follow a log-normal distribution. Therefore, log returns are used in this indicator to determine the distribution, assuming they follow a normal distribution. Other than traditional technical analysis (TA) like Support and resistance or triangles which have no statistical significance, this indicator uses levels of the underlaying distribution of log returns, which gives probability of not exceeding a certain price level.

 

The Input Settings:

Sample Size: Default 30, length of periods back to calculated the distribution of log returns

1st/2nd/3rd Multiplier: Multiplier of distribution levels. Per Default 1.00, 2.00, 3.00 represent the standard deviation levels, based on the distribution of returns. à “1st SD multipl.” == 1.00, means “1st band” represents the first standard-deviation to the up and downside.

 

How to use:

Per Default the bands for 1st, 2nd and 3rd standard deviations are plotted. That means there is a probability of 68.3% that the candle will close within the bands of upper and lower 1st standard deviation band, with the given input parameters. And a probability of 95.4% that the candle close will stay within the 2nd upper/lower band, and 99.7% that it will close within the 3rd upper/lower band. That means, there is only 0.3% chance, that the candle will close outside of the 3rd std-dev. Bands.

Summary of Default settings (1.00/2.00/3.00):

• probability of 68.3% that the candle close will stay inside of 1st SD bands

• probability of 95.4% that the candle close will stay inside of 2nd SD bands

• probability of 99.7% that the candle close will stay inside of 3rd SD bands

 

 

Remark: Indicator is provided for statistical analysis and showing probabilities only and should not be construed as financial advice.


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[ MT4 Version ] Only the next 10 units at current price! Final price: $299 Are you tired of spending months on demo or live accounts to test your trading strategies? The Backtesting Simulator is the ultimate tool designed to elevate your backtesting experience to new heights. Utilizing Metatrader historical symbol information, it offers an unparalleled simulation of real market conditions. Take control of your testing speed, test ideas quickly or at a slower pace, and witness remarkable improve
Tout d'abord, il convient de souligner ici que cet indicateur de trading est un indicateur   non repeint , non redessiné et non retardé,     ce qui le rend idéal pour le trading manuel et robotisé.  Viking Strategy Signal Indicator  - est un indicateur de tendance qui analyse automatiquement le marché et fournit des informations sur la tendance et chacun de ses changements, ainsi que des signaux pour entrer dans des transactions sans redessiner ! . Points d'entrée exacts dans les transactio
Introducing the POWER TRADE indicator created by a small group of traders with a few years trading trading the financial market profitably . This is a plug and play indicator that provides you with  POWERFUL Entry signals with Profit Taking and rebound zones. The indicator Works with all MT5 trading instruments. The indicator uses previous  chart data as receipt to speculate on future market moves.
Bill Williams Advanced
Siarhei Vashchylka
5 (8)
Bill Williams Advanced is designed for automatic chart analysis using Bill Williams' "Profitunity" system. The indicator analyzes four timeframes at once. Manual (Be sure to read before purchasing) Advantages 1. Automatically analyzes the chart using the "Profitunity" system of Bill Williams. The found signals are placed in a table in the corner of the screen. 2. Equipped with a trend filter based on the Alligator indicator. Most of the system signals are recommended to be used only accordi
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Drift
Florian Nuebling
This Oscillator describes the drift of an asset, as part of the geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). As a data basis the mean reverting log returns of the asset price is considered. It gives the percentile of drift directional. For instance, a value of 0.05 means a drift of 5%, based on the selected sample size. If the value is positive, drift to higher asset values is determined.  This indicator should be used in confluence with other indicators based on volatility, probability and statistics. L
FREE
Percentile of Historical Volatility and Correlation Coefficient shows if the asset is cheap or expensive based on the volatility. It is used to determine a good entry point. It has two indicators built in: Historical Volatility is ranked percentile wise and its correlation to price action which gives an indication of the direction of a possible future move. Together the both indicators can give good entries and direction.   Historical Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of retu
This z-score indicator shows the correct z-score of an asset, as it uses the normalized price data for calculation, which is the only correct way. Z-score is only applicable for normal distributed data, therefore not the actual price is considered, but the normalised returns, which were assumed to follow a normal distribution. Returns are mean reverting and assumed to follow a normal distribution, therefore z-score calculation of returns is more reliable than z-score on price, as price is NOT m
The RSI2.0 indicator uses normalized price data and signal processing steps to get a normal distributed oscillator with no skew (mean is zero). Therefore, it can give much better reads than the traditional RSI.   Areas/Levels of reversal: Overbought or oversold levels from traditional RSI have no statistical significance, therefore the standard deviation bands are implemented here, which can be used in similar way as possible reversal points.   Divergence: As the indicator is nearly normal dist
The Returns Momentum Oscillator (RMO) shows the difference of exponentially weighted volatility. It is used to find market tops and bottoms. Volatility comes in waves, and as the Returns often front run price action it gives directional prediction of market movement.   The Oscillator signal is RMSed (root mean squared) to make the distribution closer to Gaussian distribution. While the traditional RSI indicators are often stuck in overbought or oversold areas for a long time, RMSing of the sign
Bollinger Bands based on Returns   This indicator characterizes the price and volatility by providing a channel/band of standard deviations like the Bollinger Bands. In contrary to standard Bollinger Bands which uses price directly, this indicator uses returns due to normalization.   The standard Bollinger Bands based on price directly, were one of the first quant or statistical methods for retail traders available. The issue with these bands, standard deviations can only be calculated, if the u
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