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Probability Range Bands

The indicator ‘Probability Range Bands’ gives a prediction of the amount, how much the asset is moving from its current price. The range bands give probabilities, that the candle close will not exceed this certain price level. It is also called the expected move for the current candle close.

 

This Indicator is based on statistical methods, probabilities and volatility. Asset price is assumed to follow a log-normal distribution. Therefore, log returns are used in this indicator to determine the distribution, assuming they follow a normal distribution. Other than traditional technical analysis (TA) like Support and resistance or triangles which have no statistical significance, this indicator uses levels of the underlaying distribution of log returns, which gives probability of not exceeding a certain price level.

 

The Input Settings:

Sample Size: Default 30, length of periods back to calculated the distribution of log returns

1st/2nd/3rd Multiplier: Multiplier of distribution levels. Per Default 1.00, 2.00, 3.00 represent the standard deviation levels, based on the distribution of returns. à “1st SD multipl.” == 1.00, means “1st band” represents the first standard-deviation to the up and downside.

 

How to use:

Per Default the bands for 1st, 2nd and 3rd standard deviations are plotted. That means there is a probability of 68.3% that the candle will close within the bands of upper and lower 1st standard deviation band, with the given input parameters. And a probability of 95.4% that the candle close will stay within the 2nd upper/lower band, and 99.7% that it will close within the 3rd upper/lower band. That means, there is only 0.3% chance, that the candle will close outside of the 3rd std-dev. Bands.

Summary of Default settings (1.00/2.00/3.00):

• probability of 68.3% that the candle close will stay inside of 1st SD bands

• probability of 95.4% that the candle close will stay inside of 2nd SD bands

• probability of 99.7% that the candle close will stay inside of 3rd SD bands

 

 

Remark: Indicator is provided for statistical analysis and showing probabilities only and should not be construed as financial advice.


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¡La mejor solución para cualquier operador novato o experto! Este indicador es una herramienta única, de alta calidad y asequible porque hemos incorporado una serie de características propias y una nueva fórmula. ¡Con sólo UN gráfico puede leer la Fuerza de la Divisa para 28 pares de Divisas! Imagínese cómo mejorará su operativa porque podrá señalar el punto exacto de activación de una nueva tendencia o de una oportunidad de scalping. Manual del usuario: haga   clic aquí Ese es el primero
Trend Forecaster
Alexey Minkov
5 (6)
The Trend Forecaster indicator utilizes a unique proprietary algorithm to determine entry points for a breakout trading strategy. The indicator identifies price clusters, analyzes price movement near levels, and provides a signal when the price breaks through a level. The Trend Forecaster indicator is suitable for all financial assets, including currencies (Forex), metals, stocks, indices, and cryptocurrencies. You can also adjust the indicator to work on any time frames, although it is recommen
This indicator belongs to the family of channel indicators. These channel indicator was created based on the principle that the market will always trade in a swinging like pattern. The swinging like pattern is caused by the existence of both the bulls and bears in a market. This causes a market to trade in a dynamic channel. it is designed to help the buyer to identify the levels at which the bulls are buying and the bear are selling. The bulls are buying when the Market is cheap and the bears a
Una implementación personal de Order Blocks, una estrategia de negociación de posiciones simple pero efectiva. El operador debe ingresar al mercado o buscar operaciones en la dirección del último bloque de orden, si el rango de precios no se ha roto en la dirección opuesta a la ruptura. Los bloques abiertos no se dibujan para mayor claridad. [ Guía de instalación | Guía de actualización | Solución de problemas | FAQ | Todos los productos ] Un bloque abierto alcista es la primera barra alcista
The indicator is designed to close positions on the market in time. For example: to take profits ahead of schedule if the price has not reached TakeProfit, and the market is turning around. The indicator analyzes the momentum, not the trend. He does not give any information about the trend. The indicator is well suited for finding divergence. The Ershov 38 Parrots indicator dynamically adjusts to the market and detects price movement impulses of medium and high amplitude. It almost does not rea
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Percentile of Historical Volatility and Correlation Coefficient shows if the asset is cheap or expensive based on the volatility. It is used to determine a good entry point. It has two indicators built in: Historical Volatility is ranked percentile wise and its correlation to price action which gives an indication of the direction of a possible future move. Together the both indicators can give good entries and direction.   Historical Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of retu
Drift
Florian Nuebling
This Oscillator describes the drift of an asset, as part of the geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). As a data basis the mean reverting log returns of the asset price is considered. It gives the percentile of drift directional. For instance, a value of 0.05 means a drift of 5%, based on the selected sample size. If the value is positive, drift to higher asset values is determined.  This indicator should be used in confluence with other indicators based on volatility, probability and statistics. L
FREE
This z-score indicator shows the correct z-score of an asset, as it uses the normalized price data for calculation, which is the only correct way. Z-score is only applicable for normal distributed data, therefore not the actual price is considered, but the normalised returns, which were assumed to follow a normal distribution. Returns are mean reverting and assumed to follow a normal distribution, therefore z-score calculation of returns is more reliable than z-score on price, as price is NOT m
The RSI2.0 indicator uses normalized price data and signal processing steps to get a normal distributed oscillator with no skew (mean is zero). Therefore, it can give much better reads than the traditional RSI.   Areas/Levels of reversal: Overbought or oversold levels from traditional RSI have no statistical significance, therefore the standard deviation bands are implemented here, which can be used in similar way as possible reversal points.   Divergence: As the indicator is nearly normal dist
The Returns Momentum Oscillator (RMO) shows the difference of exponentially weighted volatility. It is used to find market tops and bottoms. Volatility comes in waves, and as the Returns often front run price action it gives directional prediction of market movement.   The Oscillator signal is RMSed (root mean squared) to make the distribution closer to Gaussian distribution. While the traditional RSI indicators are often stuck in overbought or oversold areas for a long time, RMSing of the sign
Bollinger Bands based on Returns   This indicator characterizes the price and volatility by providing a channel/band of standard deviations like the Bollinger Bands. In contrary to standard Bollinger Bands which uses price directly, this indicator uses returns due to normalization.   The standard Bollinger Bands based on price directly, were one of the first quant or statistical methods for retail traders available. The issue with these bands, standard deviations can only be calculated, if the u
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