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PriceProbabilities

This is a signal indicator for automatic trading which shows probability measures for buys and sells for each bar. It is based on statistical data gathered on existing history and takes into account all observed price changes versus corresponding bar intervals in the past. The core of the indicator is the same as in PriceProbablility indicator intended for manual trading. Unlike PriceProbability this indicator should be called from MQL4 Expert Advisors or used for history visual analysis.

The indicator shows 2 measures:

  1. Plain quantitative measure of buy and sell strengths (green and red thin histigrams), can be used as a secondary signal, or for aggressive trading;
  2. Probability measure as a ratio of buy and sell probabilities (blue and yellow thick histograms), can be used as a primary signal;

It's important to note, that both measures are nondeterministic. Even if a measure counts for almost 100%, this does not guarantee that corresponding price movement does actually occur in near future. Due to the nature of probability, every single signal may behave differently, but overall they conform to general rules. So, in a long perspective the statistical approach yields more wins than losses.

Parameters:

  • HistoryDepth - number of bars to use for statistic calculations; by default - 5000; the larger - the better; please, make sure that there are no holes in history for the specified number of bars; minimum value is 1000;
  • ForecastDepth - number of bars to use for probability calculation; bar intervals up to ForecastDepth are taken into account; by default - 100, maximum - 1000; history should contain HistoryDepth plus ForecastDepth bars; NB: only ~1000 bars of history are available in tester at starting point;
  • MaxBar - number of bars to calculate indicator on; by default - 100; NB! Calculations are very time consuming, so setting MaxBar to 1000 may require minutes to finish processing! when used from an expert, please, set this parameter to 1;
  • Offset - number of bar to shift processing in history at; by default - 0;
  • Divider - step of points to use in calculations; by default - 1, which means most accurate calculations in expense of time; when set to a larger value, for example, 10, it will speed up calculations in the specified number of times but results will be rough;
  • Mode - mode of calculations; allowed values: 0 and 1; by default - 0;

The indicator can operate in 2 modes, any one selected by Mode parameter. The mode 0 is a default one calculating probabilities in a fairly straight-forward manner: any price change on last ForecastDepth bars is taken into account either for buy or sell hypothesis depending from its sign. The mode 1 is a tricky mode - it handles 2 hypotheses for buy and sell conditions separately, that is only positive changes are taken for buy and only negative for sell. The mode 0 better suits medium- and long-term trading, including trends. The mode 1 suits better short-term trading on local price oscillations, without a long-lasting trend conditions.

The indicator is calculated on every new bar, it does not process ticks.

Recommended timeframes: M15 - H1.

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Currently Price 20% OFF ( for unlimited use )   BONUS  AUX VIP Club 2024 : Include  EA Airbag  and  Load Data History  to enhance the performance of this tool to its maximum potential  Click Here to Download Files   ( for users only )   Hello World! Introducing.. SMCpro VIP tool and Indicator for MetaTrader 4, designed to revolutionize your trading experience with the ICT Smart Money Concept. This system is meticulously crafted to empower traders with advanced insights and precision in
Entry Points Pro
Yury Orlov
4.62 (175)
Este es un genial indicador para MT4 que ofrece señales precisas para entrar en una transacción sin redibujar. Se puede aplicar a cualquier activo financiero: fórex, criptomonedas, metales, acciones, índices. Nos dará valoraciones bastante precisas y nos dirá cuándo es mejor abrir y cerra una transacción. Eche un vistazo  al vídeo  (6:22), ¡contiene un ejemplo de procesamiento de una sola señal que ha amortizado el indicador! La mayoría de los tráders mejoran sus resultados comerciales durante l
System Trend Pro
Aleksandr Makarov
5 (2)
System Trend Pro - This is the best trend trading indicator!!! The indicator no repaint!!!   The indicator has   MTF   mode, which adds confidence to trading on the trend (   no repaint   ). How to trade? Everything is very simple, we wait for the first signal (big arrow), then wait for the second signal (small arrow) and enter the market in the direction of the arrow. (See screens 1 and 2.) Exit on the opposite signal or take 20-30 pips, close half of it, and keep the rest until the oppo
Indicador único que implementa un enfoque profesional y cuantitativo para el comercio de reversión a la media. Aprovecha el hecho de que el precio se desvía y vuelve a la media de manera predecible y medible, lo que permite reglas claras de entrada y salida que superan ampliamente las estrategias comerciales no cuantitativas. [ Installation Guide | Update Guide | Troubleshooting | FAQ | All Products ] Señales comerciales claras Sorprendentemente fácil de operar Colores y tamaños personalizable
Italo Volume Indicator
Italo Santana Gomes
4.94 (77)
BUY INDICATOR AND GET EA FOR FREE AS A BONUS + SOME OTHER GIFTS! ITALO VOLUME INDICATOR  is the best volume indicator ever created, and why is that? The Indicator works on all time-frames and assets, indicator built after 7 years of experience on forex and many other markets. You know many volume indicators around the internet are not complete, does not help, and it's difficult to trade, but the Italo Volume Indicator is different , the Italo Volume Indicator shows the wave volume, when market
Currency Strength Wizard es un indicador muy poderoso que le proporciona una solución todo en uno para operar con éxito. El indicador calcula el poder de este o aquel par de divisas utilizando los datos de todas las monedas en múltiples marcos de tiempo. Estos datos se representan en forma de índice de moneda fácil de usar y líneas eléctricas de moneda que puede usar para ver el poder de esta o aquella moneda. Todo lo que necesita es adjuntar el indicador al gráfico que desea operar y el indicad
Otros productos de este autor
WalkForwardOptimizer MT5
Stanislav Korotky
3.86 (7)
WalkForwardOptimizer library allows you to perform rolling and cluster walk-forward optimization of expert advisers (EA) in MetaTrader 5. To use the library include its header file WalkForwardOptimizer.mqh into your EA source code, add call provided functions as appropriate. Once the library is embedded into EA, you may start optimization according to the procedure described in the User guide . When it's finished, intermediate results are saved into a CSV file and some special global variables.
RenkoFromRealTicks
Stanislav Korotky
4.5 (2)
This non-trading expert utilizes so called custom symbols feature ( available in MQL API as well) to build renko charts based on history of real ticks of selected standard symbol. RenkoFromRealTicks generates custom symbol quotes, thus you may open many charts to apply different EAs and indicators to the renko. It also transmits real ticks to update renko charts in real time. The generated renko chart uses M1 timeframe. It makes no sense to switch the renko chart to a timeframe other than M1. T
Order Book, known also as Market Book, market depth, Level 2, - is a dynamically updated table with current volumes of orders to buy and to sell specific financial instument at price levels near Bid and Ask. MetaTrader 5 provides the means for receiving market book from your broker, but in real time only, without access to its history. The indicator OrderBook Cumulative Indicator accumulates market book data online and visualizes them on the chart. In addition, the indicator can show the market
CCFpExt
Stanislav Korotky
CCFpExt is an extended version of the classic cluster indicator - CCFp. Main Features Arbitrary groups of tickers or currencies are supported: can be Forex, CFDs, futures, spot, indices; Time alignment of bars for different symbols with proper handling of possibly missing bars, including cases when tickers have different trading schedule; Using up to 30 instruments for market calculation (only first 8 are displayed). Parameters Instruments - comma separated list of instruments with a common cu
AutomaticZigZag
Stanislav Korotky
4.5 (2)
This is a non-parametric ZigZag providing 4 different methods of calculation. Upward edge continues on new bars while their `highs` are above highest `low` among previous bars, downward edge continues on next bars while their `lows` are below lowest `high` among previous; Gann swing: upward edge continues while `highs` and `lows` are higher than on the left adjacent bar, downward edge continues while `highs` and `lows` are lower than on the left adjacent bar. Inside bars (with lower `high` and
FREE
CustomVolumeDelta
Stanislav Korotky
5 (1)
This indicator displays volume delta (of either tick volume or real volume) encoded in a custom symbol, generated by special expert advisers, such as RenkoFromRealTicks . MetaTrader does not allow negative values in the volumes, this is why we need to encode deltas in a special way, and then use CustomVolumeDelta indicator to decode and display the deltas. This indicator is applicable only for custom instruments generated in appropriate way (with signed volumes encoded). It makes no sense to ap
FREE
Order Book, known also as Market Book, market depth, Level 2, - is a dynamically updated table with current volumes of orders to buy and to sell specific financial instument at price levels near Bid and Ask. MetaTrader 5 provides the means for receiving market book from your broker, but in real time only, without access to its history. The library OrderBook History Library reads market book state in the past from archive files, created by OrderBook Recorder . The library can be embedded into you
Order Book, known also as Market Book, market depth, Level 2, - is a dynamically updated table with current volumes of orders to buy and to sell specific financial instument at price levels near Bid and Ask. MetaTrader 5 provides the means for receiving market book from your broker, but in real time only, without access to its history. This expert adviser OrderBook History Playback allows you to playback the market book events on the history using files, created by OrderBook Recorder . The exper
FREE
ReturnAutoScale
Stanislav Korotky
5 (2)
The indicator calculates running total of linear weighted returns. It transforms rates into integrated and difference-stationary time series with distinctive buy and sell zones. Buy zones are shown in blue, sell zones in red. Parameters: period - number of bars to use for linear weighted calculation; default value - 96; smoothing - period for EMA; default value - 5; mode - an integer value for choosing calculation mode: 0 - long term trading; 1 - medium term trading; 2 - short term trading; defa
FREE
TrueVolumeSurrogate MT5
Stanislav Korotky
5 (1)
This indicator provides a true volume surrogate based on tick volumes. It uses a specific formula for calculation of a near to real estimation of trade volumes distribution , which may be very handy for instruments where only tick volumes are available. Please note that absolute values of the indicator do not correspond to any real volumes data, but the distribution itself, including overall shape and behavior, is similar to real volumes' shape and behavior of related instruments (for example, c
RenkoChartsDemo
Stanislav Korotky
This is a demo version of a non-trading expert , which utilizes so called the custom symbols feature ( available in MQL as well ) to build renko charts based on historical quotes of selected standard symbol and to refresh renko in real-time according to new ticks. Also it translates real ticks to the renko charts, which allows other EAs and indicators to trade and analyze renko. Place the EA on a chart of a working instrument. The lesser timeframe of the source chart is, the more precise resulti
FREE
VolumeDelta
Stanislav Korotky
4.67 (3)
This indicator provides the analysis of tick volume deltas. It calculates tick volumes for buys and sells separately, and their delta on every bar, and displays volumes by price clusters (cells) within a specified bar (usually the latest one). This is a limited substitution of market delta analysis based on real volumes, which are not available on Forex. The indicator displays the following data in its sub-window: light-blue histogram - buy (long) volumes; orange histogram - sell (short) volumes
Order Book, known also as Market Book, market depth, Level 2, - is a dynamically updated table with current volumes of orders to buy and to sell specific financial instument at price levels near Bid and Ask. MetaTrader 5 provides the means for receiving market book from your broker in real time. The expert OrderBook Recorder records market book changes and stores them in local files for further usage in indicators and expert adviser, including testing in the tester. The expert stores market book
FREE
HZZM
Stanislav Korotky
4 (1)
This is an adaptive ZigZag based on modification of  HZZ indicator (original source code is available in this article ). Most important changes in this version: two additional indicator buffers added for zigzag evolution monitoring - they show cross signs at points where zigzag direction first changes; zigzag range (H) autodetection on day by day basis; time-dependent adjustment of zigzag range. Parameters: H - zigzag range in points; this parameter is similar to original HZZ, but it can take 0
FREE
Comparator
Stanislav Korotky
4.75 (4)
This indicator compares the price changes during the specified period for the current symbol and other reference symbol. It allows to analyze the similar movements of highly correlated symbols, such as XAUUSD and XAGUSD, and find their occasional convergences and divergences for trading opportunities. The indicator displays the following buffers: light-green thick line - price changes of the current symbol for TimeGap bars; light-blue thin line - price changes of the reference symbol ( LeadSymbo
FREE
This script allows performing a walk-forward analysis of trading experts based on the data collected by the WalkForwardLight MT5 library. The script builds a cluster walk forward report and rolling walk forward reports that refine it, in the form of a single HTML page. This script is optional, as the library automatically generates the report immediate after the optimization in the tester is complete. However, the script is convenient because it allows using the same collected data to rebuild th
FREE
WalkForwardDemo is an expert adviser (EA) demonstrating how the built-in library WalkForwardOptimizer (WFO) for walk-forward optimization works. It allows you to easily optimize, view and analyze your EA performance and robustness in unknown trading conditions of future. You may find more details about walk-forward optimization in Wikipedia . Once you have performed optimization using WFO, the library generates special global variables (saved in an "archived" file with GVF-extension) and a CSV-f
FREE
OrderBook Utilities is a script, which performs several service operations on order book hob-files, created by OrderBook Recorder . The script processes a file for work symbol of the current chart. The file date is selected by means of the input parameter CustomDate (if it's filled in) or by the point where the script is dropped on the chart. Depending from the operation, useful information is written into the log, and optionally new file is created. The operation is selected by the input parame
FREE
Time And Sales Layout indicator shows traded buy and sell volumes right on the chart. It provides a graphical representation of most important events in the time and sales table. The indicator downloads and processes a history of real trade ticks. Depending from selected depth of history, the process may take quite some time. During history processing the indicator displays a comment with progress percentage. When the history is processed, the indicator starts analyzing ticks in real time. The l
PointsVsBars
Stanislav Korotky
This indicator provides a statistical analysis of price changes (in points) versus time delta (in bars). It calculates a matrix of full statistics about price changes during different time periods, and displays either distribution of returns in points for requested bar delta, or distribution of time deltas in bars for requested return. Please, note, that the indicator values are always a number of times corresponding price change vs bar delta occurred in history. Parameters: HistoryDepth - numbe
FREE
Year2Year
Stanislav Korotky
This indicator shows price changes for the same days in past years. D1 timeframe is required. This is a predictor indicator that finds D1 bars for the same days in past 8 years and shows their relative price changes on the current chart. Parameters: LookForward - number of days (bars) to show "future" price changes; default is 5; Offset - number of days (bars) to shift back in history; default is 0; ShowAverage - mode switch; true - show mean value for all 8 years and deviation bounds; false - s
FREE
SOMFX1Builder
Stanislav Korotky
5 (1)
If you like trading by candle patterns and want to reinforce this approach by modern technologies, this script is for you. In fact, it is a part of a toolbox, that includes a neural network engine implementing Self-Organizing Map (SOM) for candle patterns recognition, prediction, and provides you with an option to explore input and resulting data. The toolbox contains: SOMFX1Builder  - this script for training neural networks; it builds a file with generalized data about most characteristic pric
FREE
Mirror
Stanislav Korotky
This indicator predicts rate changes based on the chart display principle. It uses the idea that the price fluctuations consist of "action" and "reaction" phases, and the "reaction" is comparable and similar to the "action", so mirroring can be used to predict it. The indicator has three parameters: predict - the number of bars for prediction (24 by default); depth - the number of past bars that will be used as mirror points; for all depth mirroring points an MA is calculated and drawn on the ch
If you like trading crosses (such as AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURCHF, and similar), you should take into account what happens with major currencies (especially, USD and EUR) against the work pair: for example, while trading AUDJPY, important levels from AUDUSD and USDJPY may have an implicit effect. This indicator allows you to view hidden levels, calculated from the major rates. It finds nearest extremums in major quotes for specified history depth, which most likely form resistence or support levels, a
EvoLevels
Stanislav Korotky
The indicator displays most prominent price levels and their changes in history. It dynamically detects regions where price movements form attractors and shows up to 8 of them. The attractors can serve as resistance or support levels and outer bounds for rates. Parameters: WindowSize - number of bars in the sliding window which is used for detection of attractors; default is 100; MaxBar - number of bars to process (for performance optimization); default is 1000; when the indicator is called from
This is an intraday indicator that uses conventional formulae for daily and weekly levels of pivot, resistance and support, but updates them dynamically bar by bar. It answers the question how pivot levels would behave if every bar were considered as the last bar of a day. At every point in time, it takes N latest bars into consideration, where N is either the number of bars in a day (round the clock, i.e. in 24h) or the number of bars in a week - for daily and weekly levels correspondingly. So,
Most of traders use resistance and support levels for trading, and many people draw these levels as lines that go through extremums on a chart. When someone does this manually, he normally does this his own way, and every trader finds different lines as important. How can one be sure that his vision is correct? This indicator helps to solve this problem. It builds a complete set of virtual lines of resistance and support around current price and calculates density function for spatial distributi
The indicator draws a histogram of important levels for several major currencies attached to the current cross rates. It is intended for using on charts of crosses. It displays a histogram calculated from levels of nearest extremums of related major currencies. For example, hidden levels for AUDJPY can be detected by analyzing extremums of AUD and JPY rates against USD, EUR, GBP, and CHF. All instruments built from these currencies must be available on the client. This is an extended version of
StatBars
Stanislav Korotky
The indicator provides a statistic histogram of estimated price movements for intraday bars. It builds a histogram of average price movements for every intraday bar in history, separately for each day of week. Bars with movements above standard deviation or with higher percentage of buys than sells, or vice versa, can be used as direct trading signals. The indicator looks up current symbol history and sums up returns on every single intraday bar on a specific day of week. For example, if current
This is an easy to use signal indicator which shows and alerts probability measures for buys and sells in near future. It is based on statistical data gathered on existing history and takes into account all observed price changes versus corresponding bar intervals in the past. The statistical calculations use the same matrix as another related indicator - PointsVsBars. Once the indicator is placed on a chart, it shows 2 labels with current estimation of signal probability and alerts when signal
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Versión 1.5 2021.11.24
Recompilation.
Versión 1.4 2016.06.13
The minimum number of bars required to collect statistics has been reduced to 900 (quality of the statistics is low), which allows to run the indicator in the tester with the default settings. The tester initially contains only 1000 bars. HistoryDepth+ForecastDepth must be less than the number of available bars.
Versión 1.3 2014.08.20
Fixed some errors in calculations, which may lead to inadequate values on symbols with high historical volatility.
Versión 1.2 2014.06.16
1. Statistical data arrays are now allocated dynamically - this is required for some symbols with large price ranges (tens of thousands of points), such as XAUUSD (warning: arrays size may increase significantly);
2. Parameter Offset ignored in previous versions now works as intended;
3. New parameter Overflow added for choosing a method of processing spikes (exceeding array range); default value - false - recommended, as it demonstrates better results.
Versión 1.1 2014.06.13
Fixed a redraw problem after terminal restart.