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In our view, the timing of the next Fed rate hike will depend on the economy continuing to progress, the labour market strengthening further and inflation moving towards its 2% target. While we believe growth and inflation are strong enough to ensure

EUR/USD – NEUTRAL BIAS – (1.1200-1.1600) The US dollar is trading on a weaker footing in the near-term following the release of the shockingly weak payrolls report for May. It is now viewed as a certainty that the Fed will not resume rate hikes at

Last Friday’s US labor market report did not only provide a surprisingly low NFP reading of 38k for May . It also had significant downward revisions for prior months, taking the 3-month NFP average down to 120k from a 282k peak experienced last year

Excludes undecided voters An ORB poll for the Independent shows that 55% favor a leave vs 45% to remain. The poll excludes those voters who are undecided. There is no indication how many are undecided

There are now only 13 days to the UK’s EU referendum.  Our base case has been and continues to be that the UK will vote to stay in the EU  but also that polls will remain very close all the way up to referendum day on 23 June. This is

 For the second day in a row, the U.S. dollar moved higher against most of the major currencies. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was stronger than expected but still weaker than the previous month. Americans felt more

The British pound is in danger of slipping below a major support level against the euro at the start of the new week as the Leave group take a commanding lead over Remain in the latest UOB International polling series. Pound to euro rate today =

With much of the currency focus surrounding the EU referendum falling on the British pound, it is easy to forget other crosses will feel some heat. The world’s largest currency pair - the EUR/USD - is no exception and there are in fact already

The market has reached remarkable consensus on three themes: 1)  the ineffectiveness of negative rates;  2)  the insatiable demand for higher yielding USTs from Japan and Europe;  3)  the inevitability of the bull flattening

A British vote to leave the European Union would hit large German banks, given their heavy exposure to London, the head of German financial watchdog Bafin said in an interview with German newspaper Tagesspiegel. Bafin President Felix Hufeld told the

So says Bank of France governor and ECB governing council member Villeroy speaking to Welt am Sonntag 12 June 2016 primarily the BOE would have to respond to possible Brexit "but if necessary the ECB is ready to act" Brexit would have

Strategy from Deutsche Bank Recent developments in EUR/USD point to a renewed deterioration in fundamentals across our two most important guiding frameworks - flows and real rates. On the flow side , the basic balance - the sum of the current

Nonfarm payroll thoughts from Goldman Sachs, in brief GS is forecasting +165,000 Would be higher but for the strike at Verizon (GS cite the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the BLS attributes a minus 35,100 workers impact during the survey period)

Forget about a hike in two weeks The Fed really knows how to set 'em up and knock 'em down. In early May the market has buried the idea of a June rate hike but hawkish FOMC Minutes and commentary from Fed members but it firmly back on the table. But

It's time to stop looking for the "Holy Grail" - an edge, strategy or system so perfect that it can't fail. You will never find it, because it doesn't exist "out there". We chase this Holy Grail, because we think it will allow us to trade confidently

It only took a couple of hours for the first dovish chirps to sound out from the Federal Reserve (Fed), in response to the disappointing May employment report . Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Friday that it would be better if policymakers wait

Barclays say they expect resistance in the 1.4670 area to cap a move towards 1.4330. On the potential future direction of the sterling-dollar exchange rate Barclays write: The recent sell-off on increased trading volumes endorses our bearish view. We

'Bremain' odds are unlikely to advance much further argue TD Securities who warn this could be as good as it gets for the pound and interest rate yields. The yield on UK sovereign debt has rallied sharply as investors demand less return for holding

The BLS has shot the albatross: The market reaction to the jobs data is to abandon HMS RateHike, stuck in the Doldrums, and head for the life-rafts.  Those friendly economic winds which supported the dollar and the notion of a summer rate hike

Goldman Sachs with a client note ahead of today's speech from US Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen 6 June 2016 Courtesy of our friends at Livesquawk. Say Goldmans: The speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen today should provide a comprehensive update on how her