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Against the backdrop of economic data surprising to the high side since the June meeting as well as financial markets taking the Brexit vote well,  the Fed upgraded its assessments of the economy and the labor market in the July statement . The

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What can we expect from the ECB?  Rates decision 12:45pm (7:45 NYT) / Press conference 1:30pm (8:30 NYT). Base case: 75% probability, EURUSD -0.75%. Rates & APP remain unchanged, but a dovish press conference, enough to keep September

The ECB is unlikely to change any of its key policy settings on Thursday.  It would seem strange if the ECB were to ease policy - for UK-related reasons - a few days after the Bank of England decided to leave its monetary policy on hold. And

Upon meeting on 21 July, resilient markets after the Brexit vote will, in our view, allow the ECB’s Governing Council to stop at simply delivering hints at an imminent additional layer of stimulus on 21 July, reserving hard announcements for

UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond's observation yesterday that monetary policy represents the first line of defence for the UK economy in the face of the economic shocks from the UK's departure from the EU is another hammer blow for sterling.  So

When it comes to the SNB it must be noted too that there may be rising pressure to act again later this year when it comes to lower rates, especially if currency intervention becomes less efficient. Sight deposits have increased at a faster pace for

What's next for the ECB and the euro The ECB kept all policy rates unchanged and maintained the monthly QE purchases of EUR80bn.  The ECB "continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period

Although market participants tend to give the index of leading economic indicators (LEI) short shrift because most of the subcomponents are already known at the time of its release, the series tends to capture turning points in the economy. Last

EUR/USD – BEARISH BIAS – (1.0800-1.1200) The message from Draghi today was as expected  – we need more time to assess the economic data in the aftermath of recent events like Brexit and the attempted coup in Turkey. By the next meeting on 8th

Donald Trump is now the Republican nominee and a true contender of becoming the next president of the United States. Yet, analysts at one bank say the uncertainty from a Trump presidency could be enough to push gold prices over $500 higher. Although

Some lively moves in the euro, and USD EURUSD now trading at 1.0971 and USDJPY up through 106 to a day's high of 106.39. The fix has just been and gone and we can usually give it 5 mins either side to do its thing. There's chatter that there's some

We expect EUR to appreciate moderately this year but then depreciate significantly in 2017 EUR fits into the category of currencies driven increasingly by real over nominal yield differentials. Falling inflation expectations as a result of below-par

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ECB To Extend QE Program After The Summer Break – SEB In line with our expectation, the ECB Governing Council left its monetary policy stance unchanged after today’s meeting. The council decided to leave its policy rates unchanged. The Governing

In Alchemy of Finance, the legendary trader George Soros recalls his short of the home builders in the 1970s. He notes that he profited handsomely from the trade, but then did something interesting -- he looked at his own notes for the original

One month since the Brexit referendum, the USD appears to be once again in the driver’s sea t. However, the complexion of the FX markets has been somewhat different than anticipated, with risk sentiment proving resilient, and the combination of

We are worry that investors have got ahead of themselves wishing for helicopter money in Japan . Indeed, such a policy would likely necessitate legislative changes and political commitment that go well beyond the current Abenomics plans

Resilient markets post Brexit will likely allow the ECB to stop at simply delivering hints of additional stimulus next week, reserving hard announcements for September. This would coincide with the release of new inflation forecasts, which we think

Our latest forecasts embed a moderately bullish dollar view for the coming months, implying that the standard negative correlation between EUR/USD and USD/JPY will prevail. However, the negativity of this correlation is not