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EUR/USD – NEUTRAL BIAS – (1.1100-1.1500). The week ahead period is a big one for the foreign exchange markets with key monetary policy announcements from the Fed and the BoJ taking place next Wednesday. We now see it as very unlikely that the FOMC

EU leaders will meet in Bratislava (Friday) to discuss the consequences of the UK decision to leave the EU  and the measures required to safeguard the rest of the Union. They will likely agree to deepen cooperation in security and defence

he U.S. Department of Justice is asking Deutsche Bank  (DE:DBKGn) to pay $14 billion to settle an investigation into its selling of mortgage-backed securities, Germany's flagship lender said on Friday. The claim against Deutsche, which is likely

Sterling Euro exchange rates have hit their lowest levels since the start of September yesterday as the Bank of England signalled that we could see a further interest rate cut at the next meeting due to take place in November. Earlier this week UK

There is a very high degree of uncertainty over market developments in the week ahead, but a fresh surge in volatility is guaranteed. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday a few hours after the latest Bank of Japan

The UK and other EU governments will both face major difficulties finding a mutually-agreeable negotiating stance, increasing the risks of stalemate, which would further undermine confidence and intensify demands for stronger growth. German popular

Currency investors should consider buying GBP/USD this week,  advises Credit Suisse in its weekly FX pick to clients. " With a light data schedule for the US week ahead, we see potential for the GBP to rally the most among G10 currencies against

Considering that speculative short positioning remains relatively elevated, further position squaring related upside cannot be excluded after data confirmed better business activity for the broader economy. Even if the BoE is likely to remain

The results of August's ISM surveys haven't been doing Fed hawks any favours. With the Manufacturing Index coming materially below expectations, today's reading on the services sector fell from 55.5 in July to 51.4 for August. That's the lowest print

We think the EUR is likely to fall towards the end of the year and target a fall in EURUSD to 1.08. The principal driver of our view is our expectation of a 25bp rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, which is not fully priced into markets. In

From Goldman's Jan Hatzius: BOTTOM LINE: San Francisco Fed President John Williams advocated for raising rates “sooner rather than later”, but offered no new clues on whether the committee will be ready to act on this month. His speech followed

The top G10 currencies over the last week are those with most yield, NZD, AUD, GBP, CAD and the only big change in the last 24 hours is the performance of the Yen (yet again). The real story though, is of money moving out G2, with EUR/USD somnolent

ECB: Balancing act: We argue the ECB cannot keep its options open until December. With macro data still weak and high market expectations after a dovish July meeting,  we believe a commitment to continuing QE after March 2017 is the least

Weak US data...  Following the release of the US non-manufacturing ISM falling to its weakest level since 2010, US rate expectations and USD have fallen. However, the Exhibit below illustrates that rate expectations adjusted less than USD, which

JP Morgan: On Hold, QE Extension In December We no longer expect a rate cut and think that a decision to extend QE beyond March 2017 will be taken only in December. In addition, we think the staff will assume only a modest 0.2%-pt hit to the level of

The currency to buy the Euro against is the Pound, at last for today.  MPC Governor Mark Carney survived his brush wit the Treasury Select Committee largely unscathed and was pretty clear that further easing is possible. We’ve priced in good

EUR/USD – BULLISH BIAS – (1.1100-1.1500) Next week will see us enter into the FOMC black-out period ahead of the policy meeting on 21st September and hence the only developments that might alter the current low expectations of a rate hike would be a

Markets are increasingly shifting focus from monetary to fiscal policy . Yet the currency impact of fiscal policy is typically more complex. We set up a simple framework to think about the relationship and apply it to the G4 currencies. The FX impact

Despite dismal economic data, traders are suddenly pricing in a considerably higher chance of a rate hike in September... Interestingly, the market is pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. Jeff Guindlach noted last night that if rate-hike odds

The Australian Dollar has more strength to give over the near-term but should decline in value through the course of 2017. Those looking for their currency to strengthen against the Australian Dollar may have to be patient. The latest projections for