Claws and Horns
News of the day. Wednesday 23.12.2015
Switzerland
The KF Leading Indicator for December is due at 10:00 am (GMT+2) in Switzerland. The index is forecasted to grow to 99.1 points, against 97.9 points in November. Growth in the index is associated with the increase in stability of the Swiss economy. Forecast confirmation might support the Franc in the short-term.
UK
Data on the GDP for the third quarter of the year is due at 11:30 am (GMT+2) in the UK. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, and at 2.3% on a year-to-year basis.
US
A few macroeconomic publications are due at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in the US. Against the previous month, Personal Income in November is forecasted to fall from 0.4% to 0.2%. Personal Spending for November is expected at 0.3%, against 0.1% a month earlier. Durable Goods Orders in November could have fallen to -0.7%, against 3.0% in the previous month. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation for November are expected at 0.1%, against 0.5% for October.
Data on New Home Sales is due at 5:00 pm (GMT+2) in the US. According to forecasts, the number of homes sold in November will come out at 505 thousands, against 465 thousands in October. The growth in the figure could support the USD in the short-term.
Canada
Data on the GDP for October is due at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in Canada. On a month-to-month basis, the index is expected to grow by 0.3%, against a 0.5% contraction a month earlier. Forecast confirmation might support the Canadian Dollar.
Switzerland
The KF Leading Indicator for December is due at 10:00 am (GMT+2) in Switzerland. The index is forecasted to grow to 99.1 points, against 97.9 points in November. Growth in the index is associated with the increase in stability of the Swiss economy. Forecast confirmation might support the Franc in the short-term.
UK
Data on the GDP for the third quarter of the year is due at 11:30 am (GMT+2) in the UK. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, and at 2.3% on a year-to-year basis.
US
A few macroeconomic publications are due at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in the US. Against the previous month, Personal Income in November is forecasted to fall from 0.4% to 0.2%. Personal Spending for November is expected at 0.3%, against 0.1% a month earlier. Durable Goods Orders in November could have fallen to -0.7%, against 3.0% in the previous month. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation for November are expected at 0.1%, against 0.5% for October.
Data on New Home Sales is due at 5:00 pm (GMT+2) in the US. According to forecasts, the number of homes sold in November will come out at 505 thousands, against 465 thousands in October. The growth in the figure could support the USD in the short-term.
Canada
Data on the GDP for October is due at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in Canada. On a month-to-month basis, the index is expected to grow by 0.3%, against a 0.5% contraction a month earlier. Forecast confirmation might support the Canadian Dollar.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Tuesday 22.12.2015
Switzerland
Data on Trade Balance for November is due at 9:00 am (GMT+2) in Switzerland. The index represents the difference between the value of exports and the value of imports of goods and services and is used in the GDP evaluation. In November, the index is expected to remain positive but will come out lower than the October figure of 4.156 billion and falls to 3.820 billion Francs, that could pressure the national currency.
UK
Data on the Public Sector Net Borrowing for October is due at 11:30 am (GMT+2) in the UK. The index represents the amount of net indebtedness of the government, which is expected to continue growing and in October will increase by 11 billion Pounds that might weaken the national currency.
USA
The key publication of the day is due at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in the US, where the final GDP data for the third quarter of the year will be released. According to forecasts, the index will at best remain unchanged from the preliminary figure of 2.1%, and at worst will decline to 1.9%, which might pressure the US Dollar. It is worth noting that falling consumer spending in the US might mean that the third quarter GDP could come out lower than the second quarter figure.
Data on Existing Home Sales for November on the US property market is due at 5:00 pm (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the figure will grow from 5.36 million to 5.37 million that could support the US Dollar.
Switzerland
Data on Trade Balance for November is due at 9:00 am (GMT+2) in Switzerland. The index represents the difference between the value of exports and the value of imports of goods and services and is used in the GDP evaluation. In November, the index is expected to remain positive but will come out lower than the October figure of 4.156 billion and falls to 3.820 billion Francs, that could pressure the national currency.
UK
Data on the Public Sector Net Borrowing for October is due at 11:30 am (GMT+2) in the UK. The index represents the amount of net indebtedness of the government, which is expected to continue growing and in October will increase by 11 billion Pounds that might weaken the national currency.
USA
The key publication of the day is due at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in the US, where the final GDP data for the third quarter of the year will be released. According to forecasts, the index will at best remain unchanged from the preliminary figure of 2.1%, and at worst will decline to 1.9%, which might pressure the US Dollar. It is worth noting that falling consumer spending in the US might mean that the third quarter GDP could come out lower than the second quarter figure.
Data on Existing Home Sales for November on the US property market is due at 5:00 pm (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the figure will grow from 5.36 million to 5.37 million that could support the US Dollar.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Monday 21.12.2015
Germany, EU
At 13:00 (GMT+2) investors will be following the publication of German Buba Monthly Report. The report contains data on monetary policy and economic situation in Germany as well as on global financial conditions.
Consumer Confidence for December, due at 17:00 (GMT+2), is a leading index to consumer spending statistics. The indicator is based on a survey of 2 300 consumers expressing their opinion on European economic conditions. In December, the index is expected to remain unchanged at -5.9 points. Despite it has been the highest result since June, the still negative indicator suggests consumers are not satisfied with the current economic situation. If the forecast is confirmed, the European currency might come under pressure.
USA
Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in the US. The indicator gauges overall economic activity in the country and its relation to inflation. During last three months, the Index was in the negative zone but tended to grow – in October, it came in at 0.004 points. In November, National Activity might start growing again that will support the US Dollar.
Germany, EU
At 13:00 (GMT+2) investors will be following the publication of German Buba Monthly Report. The report contains data on monetary policy and economic situation in Germany as well as on global financial conditions.
Consumer Confidence for December, due at 17:00 (GMT+2), is a leading index to consumer spending statistics. The indicator is based on a survey of 2 300 consumers expressing their opinion on European economic conditions. In December, the index is expected to remain unchanged at -5.9 points. Despite it has been the highest result since June, the still negative indicator suggests consumers are not satisfied with the current economic situation. If the forecast is confirmed, the European currency might come under pressure.
USA
Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in the US. The indicator gauges overall economic activity in the country and its relation to inflation. During last three months, the Index was in the negative zone but tended to grow – in October, it came in at 0.004 points. In November, National Activity might start growing again that will support the US Dollar.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Friday 18.12.2015
EU
October data on the Current Account is due at 11:00 (GMT+2) in the eurozone. The index measures a difference between the amount of payments coming into the union and the amount of payments leaving it. During a substantial period, the index remained positive. Last month, seasonally adjusted index came out at 33.1 billion Euro, while the index without adjustment amounted to 29.4 billion Euro. Most likely, October data will remain positive but below its September figures, which would still support the Euro.
Canada
Data on the Consumer Price Index for November is going to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2) in Canada. On a year-to-year basis, the index will grow from 1.0% to 1.5% that would be the highest figure since December last year. The Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core that excludes food and energy price should also increase from 2.1% to 2.3%. Forecasts realisation will support the CAD.
USA
Preliminary data on the Markit Services PMI for December is due at 16:45 (GMT+2) in the US. The index is based on surveys of managers of the leading companies in the services sector regarding current economic conditions and their future prospects. According to forecasts, the figure will remain unchanged at 56.1 points, and any increase in the index will support the USD.
EU
October data on the Current Account is due at 11:00 (GMT+2) in the eurozone. The index measures a difference between the amount of payments coming into the union and the amount of payments leaving it. During a substantial period, the index remained positive. Last month, seasonally adjusted index came out at 33.1 billion Euro, while the index without adjustment amounted to 29.4 billion Euro. Most likely, October data will remain positive but below its September figures, which would still support the Euro.
Canada
Data on the Consumer Price Index for November is going to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2) in Canada. On a year-to-year basis, the index will grow from 1.0% to 1.5% that would be the highest figure since December last year. The Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core that excludes food and energy price should also increase from 2.1% to 2.3%. Forecasts realisation will support the CAD.
USA
Preliminary data on the Markit Services PMI for December is due at 16:45 (GMT+2) in the US. The index is based on surveys of managers of the leading companies in the services sector regarding current economic conditions and their future prospects. According to forecasts, the figure will remain unchanged at 56.1 points, and any increase in the index will support the USD.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Thursday 17.12.2015
EU
The Economic Bulletin for October is going to be published at 11:00 am (GMT+2) in the EU.
UK
Data on Retail Sales for November is due at 11:30 am (GMT+2) in the UK. On a year-to-year basis, the index is expected to fall to 3.0%, from 3.8% last month. On a month-to-month basis, the index will grow from -0.6% to 0.5%.
USA
Data on Initial and Continuous Jobless Claims for December is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in the US. The number of Initial Claims will fall from 282 to 275 thousands, while the number of Continuous Claims is going to decline from 2.243 to 2.203 million. When averaged, these indices are often used as the leading indicator to one of the most important indexes of the US economy – Nonfarm Payrolls.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for December will be released at 16:30 (GMT+2) in the US. The figure is expected to fall from 1.9 points in November to 1.5 points in December. The index is used as the leading indicator to the ISM Manufacturing.
The CB Leading Indicator is due at 17:00 (GMT+2) in the US. The index is forecasted to fall from 0.6% in October to 0.1% in November. The CB Leading Indicator measures future trends of economic development and is considered as the economic stability indicator.
EU
The Economic Bulletin for October is going to be published at 11:00 am (GMT+2) in the EU.
UK
Data on Retail Sales for November is due at 11:30 am (GMT+2) in the UK. On a year-to-year basis, the index is expected to fall to 3.0%, from 3.8% last month. On a month-to-month basis, the index will grow from -0.6% to 0.5%.
USA
Data on Initial and Continuous Jobless Claims for December is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in the US. The number of Initial Claims will fall from 282 to 275 thousands, while the number of Continuous Claims is going to decline from 2.243 to 2.203 million. When averaged, these indices are often used as the leading indicator to one of the most important indexes of the US economy – Nonfarm Payrolls.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for December will be released at 16:30 (GMT+2) in the US. The figure is expected to fall from 1.9 points in November to 1.5 points in December. The index is used as the leading indicator to the ISM Manufacturing.
The CB Leading Indicator is due at 17:00 (GMT+2) in the US. The index is forecasted to fall from 0.6% in October to 0.1% in November. The CB Leading Indicator measures future trends of economic development and is considered as the economic stability indicator.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Wednesday 16.12.2015
EU
Amid Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting, due at 10:00 am (GMT +2), the EUR volatility might increase.
December’s Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI for the eurozone are due at 11:00 am (GMT +2). Analysts expect Services PMI to decline from 54.2 to 54.1 points, while Manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 52.8 points. A result above 50 indicates favorable economic conditions.
At 12:00 pm (GMT +2) market participants will be following the inflation data for the eurozone. On monthly basis, analysts forecast Consumer Price Index to decline to -0.1% in November from 0.1% in October. On annual basis, no changes are expected, and the indicator will remain at 0.1%. In general, Consumer Price Index is close to deflation; therefore, new measures are needed to boost EU inflation.
Germany
At 10:30 am (GMT +2) traders will turn their attention to Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI for December. Analysts expect the first indicator to grow slightly from 52.9 to 53.0 points, while the second one to decline from 55.6 to 55.5 points. Generally, a result above 50 indicates favorable economic conditions.
UK
UK labor market data is due at 11:30 am (GMT +2). Quarterly Average Earnings including Bonus indicator is expected to decline from 3.0% to 2.5%. Claimant Count Change is forecasted to come in at 2.0K in November from 3.3K in October.
USA
November data on Building Permits is due at 3:30 pm (GMT +2) in the US. A growth to 1.155 from 1.150 million is expected. Moreover, the number of Housing Starts is forecasted to increase to 1.14 from 1.06 million. Favorable statistics might strengthen the US Dollar.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistics for November are due at 4:15 pm (GMT +2) in the US. According to the forecast, Industrial Production will come in at 0.1% from -0.2%, while Capacity Utilization will remain unchanged at 77.5%.
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 9:00 pm (GMT +2). Analysts expect the Regulator to raise interest rates. If the forecast is confirmed, the US Dollar might strengthen significantly. Otherwise, if a hike is postponed to 2016, a sharp fall in the American currency would follow.
Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank releases its Quarterly Bulletin at 4:00 pm (GMT +2). It includes the ‘Monetary policy report’ and the report on ‘Business cycle trends’.
EU
Amid Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting, due at 10:00 am (GMT +2), the EUR volatility might increase.
December’s Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI for the eurozone are due at 11:00 am (GMT +2). Analysts expect Services PMI to decline from 54.2 to 54.1 points, while Manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 52.8 points. A result above 50 indicates favorable economic conditions.
At 12:00 pm (GMT +2) market participants will be following the inflation data for the eurozone. On monthly basis, analysts forecast Consumer Price Index to decline to -0.1% in November from 0.1% in October. On annual basis, no changes are expected, and the indicator will remain at 0.1%. In general, Consumer Price Index is close to deflation; therefore, new measures are needed to boost EU inflation.
Germany
At 10:30 am (GMT +2) traders will turn their attention to Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI for December. Analysts expect the first indicator to grow slightly from 52.9 to 53.0 points, while the second one to decline from 55.6 to 55.5 points. Generally, a result above 50 indicates favorable economic conditions.
UK
UK labor market data is due at 11:30 am (GMT +2). Quarterly Average Earnings including Bonus indicator is expected to decline from 3.0% to 2.5%. Claimant Count Change is forecasted to come in at 2.0K in November from 3.3K in October.
USA
November data on Building Permits is due at 3:30 pm (GMT +2) in the US. A growth to 1.155 from 1.150 million is expected. Moreover, the number of Housing Starts is forecasted to increase to 1.14 from 1.06 million. Favorable statistics might strengthen the US Dollar.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistics for November are due at 4:15 pm (GMT +2) in the US. According to the forecast, Industrial Production will come in at 0.1% from -0.2%, while Capacity Utilization will remain unchanged at 77.5%.
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 9:00 pm (GMT +2). Analysts expect the Regulator to raise interest rates. If the forecast is confirmed, the US Dollar might strengthen significantly. Otherwise, if a hike is postponed to 2016, a sharp fall in the American currency would follow.
Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank releases its Quarterly Bulletin at 4:00 pm (GMT +2). It includes the ‘Monetary policy report’ and the report on ‘Business cycle trends’.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Tuesday 15.12.2015
UK
Inflation statistics for November are due at 11:30 am (GMT+2) in the UK. In annual terms, Consumer Price Index is expected to come in at 0.1% against -0.1% in the previous month. On the contrary, in monthly terms, a decline to -0.1% from 0.1% is forecasted. Moreover, attention needs to be paid to Retail Sales index, Producer Price Index Input and Producer Price Index Output.
Germany
ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment and ZEW Survey Current Situation for December are due at 12:00 pm (GMT+2) in Germany. Both indicators are expected to grow – Economic Sentiment to 15 from 10.4 points, while Current Situation to 54.5 from 54.4 points.
USA
Inflation data is due at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in the US. In annual terms, Consumer Price Index is expected to come in at 0.5% against 0.2% in October. The same index but excluding Food & Energy is expected to come in at 2.0% from 1.9% in the previous month. Favorable statistics might strengthen the US Dollar.
Canada
BoC Governor Poloz Speech is due at 6:45 pm (GMT+2) in Canada. His comments might influence volatility in the Canadian Dollar.
UK
Inflation statistics for November are due at 11:30 am (GMT+2) in the UK. In annual terms, Consumer Price Index is expected to come in at 0.1% against -0.1% in the previous month. On the contrary, in monthly terms, a decline to -0.1% from 0.1% is forecasted. Moreover, attention needs to be paid to Retail Sales index, Producer Price Index Input and Producer Price Index Output.
Germany
ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment and ZEW Survey Current Situation for December are due at 12:00 pm (GMT+2) in Germany. Both indicators are expected to grow – Economic Sentiment to 15 from 10.4 points, while Current Situation to 54.5 from 54.4 points.
USA
Inflation data is due at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in the US. In annual terms, Consumer Price Index is expected to come in at 0.5% against 0.2% in October. The same index but excluding Food & Energy is expected to come in at 2.0% from 1.9% in the previous month. Favorable statistics might strengthen the US Dollar.
Canada
BoC Governor Poloz Speech is due at 6:45 pm (GMT+2) in Canada. His comments might influence volatility in the Canadian Dollar.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Monday 14.12.2015
No important publications are expected on Monday and markets can have a rest before the key event of the week – the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nevertheless, today attention needs to be paid to October data on Industrial Production for the eurozone that is due at 12 pm (all times stated in GMT+2). It is worth noting that Industrial Production in the eurozone was falling for the last two months and if the tendency continues that could pressure the Euro. On Monday night at 2:30 am, the House Price Index for the third quarter of the year is due in Australia, which can be used as the leading indicator for inflation. During this year, the index was growing on quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year counts. The RBA Meeting Minutes will be published at the same time, which traditionally attract investors’ attention as they may provide some hints on future plans of the regulator regarding its monetary policy.
No important publications are expected on Monday and markets can have a rest before the key event of the week – the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nevertheless, today attention needs to be paid to October data on Industrial Production for the eurozone that is due at 12 pm (all times stated in GMT+2). It is worth noting that Industrial Production in the eurozone was falling for the last two months and if the tendency continues that could pressure the Euro. On Monday night at 2:30 am, the House Price Index for the third quarter of the year is due in Australia, which can be used as the leading indicator for inflation. During this year, the index was growing on quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year counts. The RBA Meeting Minutes will be published at the same time, which traditionally attract investors’ attention as they may provide some hints on future plans of the regulator regarding its monetary policy.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Friday 11.12.2015
Out of macroeconomic publications traders will be following today, it is worth noting news from the EU and the US. Results of Targeted LTRO are due at 12:15 pm (all times stated in GMT+2) in the EU. Long Term Refinancing Operations are aimed at maintaining liquidity in the banking system. The ECB loans funds which have 4 years maturity and a fixed rate to commercial banks. Retail Sales statistics for November are due at 3:30 pm in the US. The indicator is expected to come in at 0.3% after a 0.1% growth in the previous month. Retail Sales ex Autos are expected to be up by 0.3% from 0.2% in October. Retail Sales are followed as an indicator of consumer confidence concerning current economic situation, therefore, favorable statistics are seen as positive for the US Dollar. On Monday night, at 1:50 am, a series of macroeconomic data is due in Japan among which attention needs to be paid to Tankan Non-Manufacturing and Tankan Large Manufacturing indices.
Out of macroeconomic publications traders will be following today, it is worth noting news from the EU and the US. Results of Targeted LTRO are due at 12:15 pm (all times stated in GMT+2) in the EU. Long Term Refinancing Operations are aimed at maintaining liquidity in the banking system. The ECB loans funds which have 4 years maturity and a fixed rate to commercial banks. Retail Sales statistics for November are due at 3:30 pm in the US. The indicator is expected to come in at 0.3% after a 0.1% growth in the previous month. Retail Sales ex Autos are expected to be up by 0.3% from 0.2% in October. Retail Sales are followed as an indicator of consumer confidence concerning current economic situation, therefore, favorable statistics are seen as positive for the US Dollar. On Monday night, at 1:50 am, a series of macroeconomic data is due in Japan among which attention needs to be paid to Tankan Non-Manufacturing and Tankan Large Manufacturing indices.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Thursday 10.12.2015
The most important events on Thursday are going to be the meetings by the central banks of Switzerland and the UK. The SNB Interest Rate Decision is due at 10:30 am (all times stated in GMT+2). The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the current level of -0.75%. The main issue for the Swiss economy, as well as for other economies in the eurozone remains low inflation. The Swiss Consumer Price Index demonstrates negative figures and keeps falling since November last year. However, the possibility of using interest rates to accelerate inflation is non-existent as the rate already stands at extremely low levels. In addition, investors will pay attention to the SNB press conference, due at 10:30 am, where regulator’ officials will discuss the current state of the Swiss economy. The BoE Interest Rate Decision is due at 2 pm. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5%, same as the Asset Purchase Facility that currently stands at 375 billion Pounds. The Bank of England Minutes will be released at 2 pm and will contain information regarding the future direction of monetary policy.
In addition, attention needs to be paid to data on Trade Balance in the UK that is due at 11:30 am. Economists expect Trade Balance non-EU deficit and Total Trade Balance deficit to increase. German Buba President Weidmann speech is due at 8 pm, in which he might discuss current economic conditions in Germany. Finally, the Business NZ PMI is due at 11:30 pm. At present, the index remains well above the 50-point threshold and is unlikely to fall below the mark.
The most important events on Thursday are going to be the meetings by the central banks of Switzerland and the UK. The SNB Interest Rate Decision is due at 10:30 am (all times stated in GMT+2). The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the current level of -0.75%. The main issue for the Swiss economy, as well as for other economies in the eurozone remains low inflation. The Swiss Consumer Price Index demonstrates negative figures and keeps falling since November last year. However, the possibility of using interest rates to accelerate inflation is non-existent as the rate already stands at extremely low levels. In addition, investors will pay attention to the SNB press conference, due at 10:30 am, where regulator’ officials will discuss the current state of the Swiss economy. The BoE Interest Rate Decision is due at 2 pm. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5%, same as the Asset Purchase Facility that currently stands at 375 billion Pounds. The Bank of England Minutes will be released at 2 pm and will contain information regarding the future direction of monetary policy.
In addition, attention needs to be paid to data on Trade Balance in the UK that is due at 11:30 am. Economists expect Trade Balance non-EU deficit and Total Trade Balance deficit to increase. German Buba President Weidmann speech is due at 8 pm, in which he might discuss current economic conditions in Germany. Finally, the Business NZ PMI is due at 11:30 pm. At present, the index remains well above the 50-point threshold and is unlikely to fall below the mark.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Wednesday 09.12.2015
Today, traders will be following news from Germany, New Zealand and Australia.
At 9:00 am (all times stated in GMT+2), October data on Imports, Exports and Trade Balance is due in Germany. Analysts expect Imports to fall from 3.6% to -0.9% and Exports to be down to 0.55% from 2.60%. At the same time, trade surplus is forecasted to increase from 19.4 to 20.0 billion euros.
RBNZ announces its interest rate decision at 10:00 pm. The Regulator is expected to cut interest rates from 2.75% to 2.5%. If the forecast is confirmed, the NZD is likely to decline as investors, in search for assets with higher interest rates, are selling less attractive assets. Later on, the Reserve Bank Governor gives a press conference regarding monetary policy.
On Thursday night, at 2:30 am labor market statistics for November are due in Australia. Unemployment Rate is expected to increase slightly from 5.9% to 6.0%. Moreover, data on Employment Change and Participation Rate is worth noting.
Today, traders will be following news from Germany, New Zealand and Australia.
At 9:00 am (all times stated in GMT+2), October data on Imports, Exports and Trade Balance is due in Germany. Analysts expect Imports to fall from 3.6% to -0.9% and Exports to be down to 0.55% from 2.60%. At the same time, trade surplus is forecasted to increase from 19.4 to 20.0 billion euros.
RBNZ announces its interest rate decision at 10:00 pm. The Regulator is expected to cut interest rates from 2.75% to 2.5%. If the forecast is confirmed, the NZD is likely to decline as investors, in search for assets with higher interest rates, are selling less attractive assets. Later on, the Reserve Bank Governor gives a press conference regarding monetary policy.
On Thursday night, at 2:30 am labor market statistics for November are due in Australia. Unemployment Rate is expected to increase slightly from 5.9% to 6.0%. Moreover, data on Employment Change and Participation Rate is worth noting.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Tuesday 08.12.2015
Out of macroeconomic publications that can affect dynamics in currencies today, attention needs to be paid to releases from the eurozone and the UK. Data on the GDP for the third quarter of the year is due at 12 pm (all times stated in GMT+2) in the eurozone. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% on a month-to-month basis, and at 1.6% against the previous year. NIESR GDP Estimate for the third quarter is due at 5 pm in the UK. The last figure came out at 0.6% and its growth could support the Pound. On Tuesday night, traders will be following the news from Australia and China. The Westpac Consumer Confidence is due at 1:30 am, while data on Home Loans for November is due at 2:30 am. The index is expected to decline from 2% to -1% and could pressure the Australian Dollar if comes out according to forecasts. The Consumer Price Index for November is due at 3:30 am in China. The index is predicted to grow from -0.3% to -0.1% against the previous month, and from 1.3% to 1.4% against the previous year.
Out of macroeconomic publications that can affect dynamics in currencies today, attention needs to be paid to releases from the eurozone and the UK. Data on the GDP for the third quarter of the year is due at 12 pm (all times stated in GMT+2) in the eurozone. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% on a month-to-month basis, and at 1.6% against the previous year. NIESR GDP Estimate for the third quarter is due at 5 pm in the UK. The last figure came out at 0.6% and its growth could support the Pound. On Tuesday night, traders will be following the news from Australia and China. The Westpac Consumer Confidence is due at 1:30 am, while data on Home Loans for November is due at 2:30 am. The index is expected to decline from 2% to -1% and could pressure the Australian Dollar if comes out according to forecasts. The Consumer Price Index for November is due at 3:30 am in China. The index is predicted to grow from -0.3% to -0.1% against the previous month, and from 1.3% to 1.4% against the previous year.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Monday 07.12.2015
There are not many important publications on Monday as markets are resting after the hectic last week. Nevertheless, attention needs to be paid to the publication of October data on the Industrial Production in Germany, due at 9 am (all times stated in GMT+2). On a month-to-month basis the index is expected to grow from -1.1% to 0.7%. It is likely that it will grow against the previous year as well that would support the Euro. The Labour Market Conditions Index for November is due at 5 pm in the US. The index represents the general state of the labour market in the US economy. Fed’s Bullard speech is due at 7:30 pm. Public appearances of Fed officials traditionally attract attention of investors, and especially now, when markets are expecting long-awaited changes in monetary policy.
On Monday night, releases will come out from the Asian markets. The GDP data from Japan is due at 1:50 am. The Japanese economy is expected to be in a better shape in the third quarter than it was in the second. Against the previous quarter the index will increase from -0.2% to 0.0%, while against the previous year it will grow from -0.8% to 0.1%. The economy growth, however, is very insignificant and is unlikely to support the Yen. November data on Trade Balance in China is due at 4 am. According to forecasts, trade balance will show a surplus of 63.30 billion US Dollars, mostly due to imports reduction.
There are not many important publications on Monday as markets are resting after the hectic last week. Nevertheless, attention needs to be paid to the publication of October data on the Industrial Production in Germany, due at 9 am (all times stated in GMT+2). On a month-to-month basis the index is expected to grow from -1.1% to 0.7%. It is likely that it will grow against the previous year as well that would support the Euro. The Labour Market Conditions Index for November is due at 5 pm in the US. The index represents the general state of the labour market in the US economy. Fed’s Bullard speech is due at 7:30 pm. Public appearances of Fed officials traditionally attract attention of investors, and especially now, when markets are expecting long-awaited changes in monetary policy.
On Monday night, releases will come out from the Asian markets. The GDP data from Japan is due at 1:50 am. The Japanese economy is expected to be in a better shape in the third quarter than it was in the second. Against the previous quarter the index will increase from -0.2% to 0.0%, while against the previous year it will grow from -0.8% to 0.1%. The economy growth, however, is very insignificant and is unlikely to support the Yen. November data on Trade Balance in China is due at 4 am. According to forecasts, trade balance will show a surplus of 63.30 billion US Dollars, mostly due to imports reduction.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Friday 04.12.2015
For traders, Friday is going to be just as tense as Thursday was. Today markets are expecting data on the US labour market, which is due at 3:30 pm (all times stated in GMT+2). The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls will add 200 thousand new jobs which is still lower than October data that showed a 271 thousands addition. However, the leading indicators, in general presented optimistic readings. The ADP Employment Change came out at 271 thousands, which was better than the previous figure and the forecasts. In addition, the Challenger Job Cuts significantly fell from 50.504 to 30.953 thousands. However, the average number of Initial and Continuous Jobless Claims in November slightly increased. Therefore, there is a high possibility that November NFP will exceed its forecasts that would support the US Dollar. Today attention also needs to be paid to November data on the Consumer Price Index from Switzerland that is due at 10:15 am. According to forecasts, on a month-to-month basis the index will fall from 0.1% to 0.0%, while against the previous year it will increase from -1.4% to -1.3% that continues representing deflation. Also at 3:30 pm, November data on the Canadian labour market is due. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.0%, while the Net Change in Employment will amount to 0.7 thousands and the figure might pressure the Canadian Dollar.
For traders, Friday is going to be just as tense as Thursday was. Today markets are expecting data on the US labour market, which is due at 3:30 pm (all times stated in GMT+2). The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls will add 200 thousand new jobs which is still lower than October data that showed a 271 thousands addition. However, the leading indicators, in general presented optimistic readings. The ADP Employment Change came out at 271 thousands, which was better than the previous figure and the forecasts. In addition, the Challenger Job Cuts significantly fell from 50.504 to 30.953 thousands. However, the average number of Initial and Continuous Jobless Claims in November slightly increased. Therefore, there is a high possibility that November NFP will exceed its forecasts that would support the US Dollar. Today attention also needs to be paid to November data on the Consumer Price Index from Switzerland that is due at 10:15 am. According to forecasts, on a month-to-month basis the index will fall from 0.1% to 0.0%, while against the previous year it will increase from -1.4% to -1.3% that continues representing deflation. Also at 3:30 pm, November data on the Canadian labour market is due. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.0%, while the Net Change in Employment will amount to 0.7 thousands and the figure might pressure the Canadian Dollar.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Thursday 03.12.2015
Today traders will be paying attention to publications from the US and the eurozone. The Markit Services PMI for November is due at 11 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in the eurozone. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 54.6 points. The ECB Interest Rate Decision is due at 2:45 pm. Markets do not expect any change in the rate that currently stands at 0.05%. The ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference is due at 3:30 pm, where the factors influenced the decision are going to be discussed by the President of the regulator, who will also give his commentaries on the current state of the European economy. High volatility is expected during the news. At 4:45 pm, data on Factory Orders will come out in the US. According to forecasts, the index will grow from -1.0% to 1.3% that might support the US Dollar. November data on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is due at 5 pm. The index is expected to fall slightly from 59.1 points in October to 58 points. However, a reading above the 50-point mark represents a growth of the sector. Fed’s Stanley Fischer will give his speech in Washington at 7 pm, as he presents the report on the Financial Stability and Shadow Banks. His commentaries might affect the dynamics in the USD. On Thursday night at 2:30 am, data on Retail Sales for November will come out in Australia. The index is expected to increase from 0.4% to 0.5%.
Today traders will be paying attention to publications from the US and the eurozone. The Markit Services PMI for November is due at 11 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in the eurozone. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 54.6 points. The ECB Interest Rate Decision is due at 2:45 pm. Markets do not expect any change in the rate that currently stands at 0.05%. The ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference is due at 3:30 pm, where the factors influenced the decision are going to be discussed by the President of the regulator, who will also give his commentaries on the current state of the European economy. High volatility is expected during the news. At 4:45 pm, data on Factory Orders will come out in the US. According to forecasts, the index will grow from -1.0% to 1.3% that might support the US Dollar. November data on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is due at 5 pm. The index is expected to fall slightly from 59.1 points in October to 58 points. However, a reading above the 50-point mark represents a growth of the sector. Fed’s Stanley Fischer will give his speech in Washington at 7 pm, as he presents the report on the Financial Stability and Shadow Banks. His commentaries might affect the dynamics in the USD. On Thursday night at 2:30 am, data on Retail Sales for November will come out in Australia. The index is expected to increase from 0.4% to 0.5%.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Wednesday 02.12.2015
Out of macroeconomic publications that traders need to pay attention to today, important releases are due from the US, Canada and the eurozone. Data on inflation is due at 12 pm (all times stated in GMT+2) in the eurozone. On a year-to-year basis, the Consumer Price Index is expected to grow from 0.1% to 0.2% against the previous month, while the Producer Price Index is expected to fall by 3.2% against the previous year, and from -0.3% to -0.4% against the previous month. The Producer Price Index has been falling for some time now, but it does not get critical for the economy of the eurozone yet. The ADP Employment Change is due at 3:15 pm in the US and the data should present a growth of 190 thousands new jobs, against the previous figure of 182 thousands, which will support the US Dollar if confirmed. The BoC Interest Rate Decision and BoC Rate Statement are due at 5 pm in Canada. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%, while the statement will explain the factors affected the decision. Fed’s Yellen Speech is due at 6 pm, in which she will tell her view on the nearest future of the US economy and which might cause an increase in market volatility. The Fed’s Beige Book is due at 9 pm that contains data on economic conditions in 12 Federal districts in the US. Strong figures might support the USD. On Wednesday night at 3:30 am, October data on Exports, Imports and Trade Balance is due in Australia. A trade deficit is forecasted to increase from -2.317 to -2.665 billion AUD that could pressure the national currency if figures are confirmed.
Out of macroeconomic publications that traders need to pay attention to today, important releases are due from the US, Canada and the eurozone. Data on inflation is due at 12 pm (all times stated in GMT+2) in the eurozone. On a year-to-year basis, the Consumer Price Index is expected to grow from 0.1% to 0.2% against the previous month, while the Producer Price Index is expected to fall by 3.2% against the previous year, and from -0.3% to -0.4% against the previous month. The Producer Price Index has been falling for some time now, but it does not get critical for the economy of the eurozone yet. The ADP Employment Change is due at 3:15 pm in the US and the data should present a growth of 190 thousands new jobs, against the previous figure of 182 thousands, which will support the US Dollar if confirmed. The BoC Interest Rate Decision and BoC Rate Statement are due at 5 pm in Canada. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%, while the statement will explain the factors affected the decision. Fed’s Yellen Speech is due at 6 pm, in which she will tell her view on the nearest future of the US economy and which might cause an increase in market volatility. The Fed’s Beige Book is due at 9 pm that contains data on economic conditions in 12 Federal districts in the US. Strong figures might support the USD. On Wednesday night at 3:30 am, October data on Exports, Imports and Trade Balance is due in Australia. A trade deficit is forecasted to increase from -2.317 to -2.665 billion AUD that could pressure the national currency if figures are confirmed.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Tuesday 01.12.2015
Today, traders will be turning their attention to news from Switzerland, Germany, the UK, the EU, Canada, the US and Australia.
November data on Real Retail Sales is due at 10:15 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in Switzerland. The indicator is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4% on an annual basis that can support the Swiss Franc.
At 10:55 am Germany releases a block of macroeconomic data for November, which includes Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate and Markit Manufacturing PMI. All three indicators are expected to remain unchanged – Unemployment Change at -5K, Unemployment Rate at 6.4% and Manufacturing PMI at 52.6 points. Germany’s unemployment rate remains at 6.4% for quite a long time.
Markit Manufacturing PMI is due at 11:30 am in the UK. Analysts forecast a decline from 55.5 to 54 points. Generally, a result above 50 points indicates favorable economic conditions. Last time, when the indicator fell below the key level of 50 points, was in 2013. Moreover, Financial Stability Report is due at 11:30 am in the UK. The Report shows experts’ assessment of the current financial situation. Depending on the results, this publication can either support or negatively affect the Pound.
The EU releases its Unemployment Rate for November at 12:00 pm. According to the forecast, the indicator will remain unchanged at 10.8%
In the afternoon, market participants will be following news from Canada and the US. Canada’s Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter is due at 3:30 pm. The indicator is expected to grow from -0.5% to 2.3% that might strengthen the Canadian Dollar for a short period of time. RBC Manufacturing PMI for November is released at 4:30 pm. According to historical data, the Index has been tending to decline since July 2015. Last time, the indicator came in at 48 points that suggests a decrease in the sector. Negative tendency can continue in November as well.
At 5:00 pm, traders will turn their attention to data on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending, due in the US. Analysts expect that Manufacturing PMI will grow from 50.1 to 50.3 points, while Construction Spending will decline from 0.6% to 0.5%.
On Wednesday night, at 1:30 am, RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens is giving his speech, which might determine the AUD dynamics. Furthermore, at 3:30 am, Australia releases its GDP statistics for the third quarter. In annual terms, a growth from 2.0% to 2.3% is expected. In quarterly terms, the indicator is forecasted to come in at 0.7% from 0.2% earlier. In this case, the AUD can gain significant short-term support.
Today, traders will be turning their attention to news from Switzerland, Germany, the UK, the EU, Canada, the US and Australia.
November data on Real Retail Sales is due at 10:15 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in Switzerland. The indicator is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4% on an annual basis that can support the Swiss Franc.
At 10:55 am Germany releases a block of macroeconomic data for November, which includes Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate and Markit Manufacturing PMI. All three indicators are expected to remain unchanged – Unemployment Change at -5K, Unemployment Rate at 6.4% and Manufacturing PMI at 52.6 points. Germany’s unemployment rate remains at 6.4% for quite a long time.
Markit Manufacturing PMI is due at 11:30 am in the UK. Analysts forecast a decline from 55.5 to 54 points. Generally, a result above 50 points indicates favorable economic conditions. Last time, when the indicator fell below the key level of 50 points, was in 2013. Moreover, Financial Stability Report is due at 11:30 am in the UK. The Report shows experts’ assessment of the current financial situation. Depending on the results, this publication can either support or negatively affect the Pound.
The EU releases its Unemployment Rate for November at 12:00 pm. According to the forecast, the indicator will remain unchanged at 10.8%
In the afternoon, market participants will be following news from Canada and the US. Canada’s Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter is due at 3:30 pm. The indicator is expected to grow from -0.5% to 2.3% that might strengthen the Canadian Dollar for a short period of time. RBC Manufacturing PMI for November is released at 4:30 pm. According to historical data, the Index has been tending to decline since July 2015. Last time, the indicator came in at 48 points that suggests a decrease in the sector. Negative tendency can continue in November as well.
At 5:00 pm, traders will turn their attention to data on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending, due in the US. Analysts expect that Manufacturing PMI will grow from 50.1 to 50.3 points, while Construction Spending will decline from 0.6% to 0.5%.
On Wednesday night, at 1:30 am, RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens is giving his speech, which might determine the AUD dynamics. Furthermore, at 3:30 am, Australia releases its GDP statistics for the third quarter. In annual terms, a growth from 2.0% to 2.3% is expected. In quarterly terms, the indicator is forecasted to come in at 0.7% from 0.2% earlier. In this case, the AUD can gain significant short-term support.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Monday 30.11.2015
Today markets will be following news from the UK, Germany and the US. October data on Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals is due at 11:30 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in the UK. Both indices are expected to grow – Consumer Credit will increase by 1.3 billion Pounds and Mortgage Approvals by 69 900. Growth of these indices has positive influence on the economy in general thus strengthening the Pound. November data on the Consumer Price Index is due at 3 pm in Germany. The index is forecasted to increase from 0.3% to 0.4% against the previous year, and from 0.0% to 0.1% against the previous month. Forecasts realisation can support the Euro as for a while now inflation in Germany remains near zero levels or slipping into the negative territory indicating deflation. However, it still remains quite far from its 2% target. Data on Pending Home Sales for October is due at 5 pm. The index is expected to increase from -2.3% to 1.0%. On Monday night at 3 am, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is giving his speech, which might have an effect on pairs with the Yen as his commentaries on monetary policy usually lead to increase in volatility. The RBA Interest Rate Decision is due at 5:30 am. The rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 2%, which is unlikely to have a strong impact on the market.
Today markets will be following news from the UK, Germany and the US. October data on Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals is due at 11:30 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in the UK. Both indices are expected to grow – Consumer Credit will increase by 1.3 billion Pounds and Mortgage Approvals by 69 900. Growth of these indices has positive influence on the economy in general thus strengthening the Pound. November data on the Consumer Price Index is due at 3 pm in Germany. The index is forecasted to increase from 0.3% to 0.4% against the previous year, and from 0.0% to 0.1% against the previous month. Forecasts realisation can support the Euro as for a while now inflation in Germany remains near zero levels or slipping into the negative territory indicating deflation. However, it still remains quite far from its 2% target. Data on Pending Home Sales for October is due at 5 pm. The index is expected to increase from -2.3% to 1.0%. On Monday night at 3 am, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is giving his speech, which might have an effect on pairs with the Yen as his commentaries on monetary policy usually lead to increase in volatility. The RBA Interest Rate Decision is due at 5:30 am. The rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 2%, which is unlikely to have a strong impact on the market.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Friday 27.11.2015
Out of macroeconomic statistics that are due to be published today, it is worth paying attention to releases from the UK and the EU. Data on the GDP – the most important indicator of the national economy, is going to come out at 11:30 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in the UK. Third quarter figures are expected to remain unchanged against both the previous year at 2.3%, and the previous quarter at 0.5%. The EU Financial Stability Review that analyses possible risks for the financial stability in the eurozone is due at 1 pm. On Sunday night, statistical data will be published in New Zealand and Japan. October data on Building Permits is due at 11:45 pm in New Zealand. The index was falling for the last two months declined particularly heavily in August (from 20.4% to -4.9%) and reached -5.7% in September. Most likely, negative dynamics will remain in October as well that would pressure the NZD. Bloc of macroeconomic data from Japan is due at 1:50 am. The most important publications will be on the Industrial Production and Retail Sales. It is worth noting that Industrial Production figures against the previous year have been falling for the last two months, while Retail Sales have been falling since July.
Out of macroeconomic statistics that are due to be published today, it is worth paying attention to releases from the UK and the EU. Data on the GDP – the most important indicator of the national economy, is going to come out at 11:30 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in the UK. Third quarter figures are expected to remain unchanged against both the previous year at 2.3%, and the previous quarter at 0.5%. The EU Financial Stability Review that analyses possible risks for the financial stability in the eurozone is due at 1 pm. On Sunday night, statistical data will be published in New Zealand and Japan. October data on Building Permits is due at 11:45 pm in New Zealand. The index was falling for the last two months declined particularly heavily in August (from 20.4% to -4.9%) and reached -5.7% in September. Most likely, negative dynamics will remain in October as well that would pressure the NZD. Bloc of macroeconomic data from Japan is due at 1:50 am. The most important publications will be on the Industrial Production and Retail Sales. It is worth noting that Industrial Production figures against the previous year have been falling for the last two months, while Retail Sales have been falling since July.
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Thursday 26.11.2015
There are not going to be many important publications in either Europe or the US, where it is a Thanksgiving Day, on Thursday. Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production for the third quarter in Switzerland, due at 10:15 am (GMT+2). It is worth noting that Industrial Production was falling in the first half of the year – by 5% in the first quarter and by 2.4% in the second quarter. Most likely, the tendency will remain in the third quarter too that would pressure the Franc. On Thursday night at 1:30 am (GMT+2), a big bloc of macroeconomic statistics is due in Japan. The most important publications are going to be on the National Consumer Price Index, Unemployment Rate and Overall Household Spending. The National Consumer Price Index was falling during the year and in September reached 0%. The fall might continue in October. The Unemployment Rate during the year remained within a 3.3-3.6% range, which is quite low especially comparing to the European countries. In October, the index is likely to stay within the range. In addition, attention needs to be paid to the Overall Household Spending, which is the leading indicator for economic activity and affects inflationary expectations.
There are not going to be many important publications in either Europe or the US, where it is a Thanksgiving Day, on Thursday. Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production for the third quarter in Switzerland, due at 10:15 am (GMT+2). It is worth noting that Industrial Production was falling in the first half of the year – by 5% in the first quarter and by 2.4% in the second quarter. Most likely, the tendency will remain in the third quarter too that would pressure the Franc. On Thursday night at 1:30 am (GMT+2), a big bloc of macroeconomic statistics is due in Japan. The most important publications are going to be on the National Consumer Price Index, Unemployment Rate and Overall Household Spending. The National Consumer Price Index was falling during the year and in September reached 0%. The fall might continue in October. The Unemployment Rate during the year remained within a 3.3-3.6% range, which is quite low especially comparing to the European countries. In October, the index is likely to stay within the range. In addition, attention needs to be paid to the Overall Household Spending, which is the leading indicator for economic activity and affects inflationary expectations.